Five Storylines to Watch Coming Out of F1’s Summer Break

Only 10 races remain in the 2024 season and the championship race is on. Here’s what to keep your eyes on over the next few months.

Red Bull Racing driver Max Verstappen leads the field during the Miami Grand Prix. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

After back-to-back seasons of dominance by Red Bull and Max Verstappen, the competition in Formula One has ramped back up in 2024. Seven different drivers won races in the first 12 races of the campaign, making for the most parity in the sport in more than a decade. 

Lewis Hamilton won the last race before the summer break at the Belgian Grand Prix after his Mercedes teammate George Russell was disqualified for having a car that was underweight. The victory was emblematic of what’s been a topsy-turvy year, and a harsh reminder of the importance of getting the details right during such a competitive season.

As the members of the paddock return from their summer vacations, here’s a refresher on what’s happened so far during the 2024 F1 season—and what to watch in what’s shaping up to be a thrilling final 10 races.

The race for the constructors championship 

When the year began, Red Bull seemed to carry over its advantage from the previous two seasons, jetting off to a hefty lead over the rest of the teams. But what played out over the next 12 race weekends was a clear leveling out of the field, creating a battle for the title not seen since 2021. 

McLaren emerged as the biggest threat to Red Bull’s throne. Lando Norris burst onto the scene with his first career F1 win in Miami, only to be followed seven races later by the maiden victory for his teammate Oscar Piastri. A string of 10 straight finishes on the podium (including a 1–2 result in Hungary) dating back to the Chinese Grand Prix has made McLaren the team to beat in the back half of the season, even as Red Bull maintains a 42-point advantage with 10 races remaining. 

That’s in part due to how unsettled the defending champions have looked ever since losing out in Miami. Verstappen has won a circuit-leading three races since, but has also uncharacteristically missed out on podiums in Monaco, Austria, Hungary and Belgium. Even worse, Sergio Pérez has plummeted down the standings, finishing no higher than seventh in any of the last eight races going into the break. While McLaren has two drivers consistently performing at the top of their game, Red Bull has just one.

Should Pérez not find his form, the constructors battle very well might be McLaren’s to lose. With Ferrari and Mercedes also now in the mix for victory at any given race, consistency is more important than ever and there’s no doubt that the more reliable duo at this point is Norris and Piastri.

Norris, right, speaks to Verstappen after the Formula 1 Lenovo United States Grand Prix. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Can Lando Norris really chase down Max Verstappen?

Though the fight for a team title remains close with 10 races to go, unseating Verstappen as the drivers champion is a taller task. Verstappen, winner of three straight world championships, leads Norris by 78 points coming out of the break, a margin that would be daunting for the McLaren driver to overcome barring a series of DNFs from the leader.

Since Norris cemented himself as a challenger in Miami, the 24-year-old hasn’t been able to break through for a victory again, despite having a number of opportunities to do so. He’s managed to finish in the top five in every other race besides Austria, but that hasn’t been good enough to really make a dent in Verstappen’s hold on the top spot. In fact, since Miami, Verstappen has actually outscored Norris by 25 points. 

Fortunes can change quickly but reason stands that Verstappen is still the clear favorite to walk away with another title. If he does so, he’ll enter a new stratosphere in the annals of F1 history. Only four other drivers—Juan Manuel Fangio, Michael Schumacher, Sebastian Vettel and Hamilton—have ever won four championships in a row. So long as Verstappen continues to do what he’s done all year, he’ll become the latest member of that esteemed group.

How the rest of the top eight in the drivers standings will shake out

Verstappen and Norris may be the front-runners to hoist a trophy at year’s end, but the rest of the top eight drivers, all of whom are members of the top four teams, have also upped their game, making each of the remaining races must-see events. 

Mercedes, the dominant power player of the 2010s, has slipped since Hamilton narrowly missed out on career world championship No. 8 in 2021. However, before the all-time great goes to Ferrari next season, he and Russell are getting every ounce possible out of the team’s car.

Going into the break, Mercedes won three of four races and has been better than just about every other team dating back to Canada. A dreadful start to the year will keep the group from competing for a championship, but both drivers seem capable of finishing in the top five. 

The rise of Mercedes has come with a bit of a slide for Ferrari. Charles Leclerc finally won at his home Grand Prix in Monaco, but both he and Carlos Sainz have taken a step back since. The Prancing Horse is still only 63 points shy of Red Bull and team principal Fred Vasseur remains optimistic about the team’s chances in Monza, Baku and Singapore, so it’s still too early to count Ferrari out. 

The competition that’s unfolded in 2024 bodes well for the immediate future of the sport. Though new regulations are coming in ‘26, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner predicted fireworks through the end of the season—and into next year.

“I remember when I first came into Formula One, Ron Dennis banging that drum back in 2005. Convergence has always brought the teams together,” Horner said. “Of course we have a big regulations change in 2026 that will cause divergence but, between now and then, the next 18 months I think it will be flat-out between the four teams.”

What Red Bull chooses to do for the future

While witnessing a decline in on-track performance in the weeks leading up to the break, Red Bull was also navigating questions of personnel, resulting in a critical meeting between the powers-that-be. The outcome of the meeting was clear: Pérez would remain in his seat, despite ample speculation to the contrary.

The domino effect was immediate. Yuki Tsunoda would remain in place of RB, where he signed a one-year contract for 2025. Daniel Ricciardo, long thought to be Horner’s first call if Pérez struggled to get back on the trajectory needed for a championship, did not become Verstappen’s teammate again for the final stretch of the season and is forced instead to reckon with a lack of clarity about his own future in F1. 

But as of now, RB’s second seat for next year is still technically open going forward, and there’s even some question about how secure Pérez really is on the top team.

Apart from the futures of Tsunoda and Pérez, Ricciardo and Liam Lawson are among the candidates in play for the two teams in 2025. That means Red Bull has four available drivers for three spots. When it comes time to make a final decision, the results of the final 10 races in 2024 will surely be weighed heavily, meaning it’s audition time for those in the discussion.

Sainz in the pit lane during the practice session at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. / Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Rounding out the 2025 grid

One of the more impactful drivers’ markets in recent memory fully broke open on the first day of the summer break when Carlos Sainz signed with Williams on a multiyear deal. The Ferrari driver was the next biggest piece of the puzzle to slot in after the news broke of Hamilton’s move to the Prancing Horse in 2025, and Williams ultimately won the sweepstakes over the likes of Alpine and Sauber.

Apart from the decisions unfolding for Red Bull and RB, only three other teams have a spot remaining in their lineup for 2025. Alpine and Sauber will both have to look elsewhere after their unsuccessful pursuit of Sainz and Mercedes is still without a replacement for Hamilton.  

The latter seems to be doing its due diligence before signing budding star Kimi Antonelli, who turns 18 later this month. But the other two outfits are without a clear path and would surely like to solidify next year’s lineup as soon as possible. 

A number of veteran drivers like Ricciardo, Valtteri Bottas and Kevin Magnussen are in danger of missing out on a seat once the carousel stops spinning. With just a few more chances to make a good impression, the remainder of the 2024 slate will be just as important for those driving in the midfield as it will be for the championship contenders.