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How Many Receiving Yards will Tyreek Hill have in 2020?

After back-to-back monster seasons, Kansas City Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill missed four games and fell back to earth in 2019. SI Gambling analyst Frankie Taddeo looks at the latest 2020 projections, and reveals his best bet for the Chiefs top wideout.

Frankie Taddeo

There is a debate among fantasy owners as to which quarterback will have the best season in 2020: Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes or Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.

That argument comes down to “splitting hairs,” but there is no argument that Mahomes is the better pure passer of the two elite signal-callers. Therefore, it is easy to envision that his top wideout Tyreek Hill will finish among the top players at the position. 

What Are the Oddsmakers Saying?

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Hill’s total receiving yards set at 1,150.5 yards for 2020/2021. The oddsmakers currently have Hill projected to finish with the sixth-most receiving yards among NFL wide receivers in 2020. Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans are all currently projected in a similar to slightly higher range for the fantasy elite game-breakers.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Hill’s Fantasy Value in 2020

After a 593-yard rookie campaign in 2016, Hill burst onto the scene in his sophomore season with 1,183 yards. Two seasons ago, the Chiefs handed the reins over to Mahomes and during the heralded quarterback’s MVP season, Hill was arguably the biggest beneficiary with career-highs in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns . Unfortunately, there was tremendous regression last season as the fourth-year dynamic wideout caught just 860 receiving yards in year two with Mahomes.

Before we describe his effort last season as “poor” (they did earn a ring together in just 33 games together), it's prudent to highlight that Mahomes missed two games with a knee injury. Additionally, Hill also missed four games after suffering a shoulder injury in the season-opener against Jacksonville. Production-wise, Hill was only able to haul in 58 of 89 targets: good for 14.8 yards per reception while catching seven touchdowns.

Despite only having three 100-plus yard receiving games in 2019, Hill saved one of those efforts for Super Bowl LIV. With Hill and Mahomes fully healthy, the connection hooked up for a game-high nine times for 105 yards. Among them, arguably the biggest play in the Chiefs come-from-behind win late in the second half on third-and-15 for a critical 44 yard completion.

It also should be noted that Hill was instrumental in Kansas City’s 35-24 AFC Championship victory over the Tennessee Titans; with seven receptions for 67 yards and two touchdowns. Hill is easily a top-five WR worthy of high second round draft capital as the clear WR1 in the league’s most explosive offensive attack.

2020 Schedule

Betting Advice:

My model once again loves the potential of the Kansas City offense in 2020, and the two biggest receiving beneficiaries are wideout Tyreek Hill and star tight end Travis Kelce. My projections currently have the former West Alabama standout with 1,289 yards this upcoming season.

We have only seen the duo of Mahomes and Hill on display for a full 16-game regular season just once; leading to 87 receptions, 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns. I believe we may only be scratching the surface for what this dangerous tandem is truly capable of.

I am willing to gamble that Hill, should he be able to avoid injury, can easily surpass an average of 71.9 receiving yards per game needed to surpass this number by the oddsmakers.

The Play: OVER 1,150.5 rushing yards (-110)

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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