RBC Heritage PGA Betting Breakdown: Don’t Be Afraid to Back Bryson

The PGA Tour’s return to live-action continues on Hilton Head Island at Harbour Town Golf Links. SI Fantasy Golf and Gambling insider Alex White gets you ready with his best bets, values, and long shots for this week's RBC Heritage.

Congratulations to Daniel Berger (80/1) on an excellent finish on Sunday at Colonial; the best win of his young career. The field was stacked and he stepped up to the challenge.

We have another stacked field this week and many first-timers at Harbour Town. The leaderboards will look much different than other years so let’s not focus on course history. With big names showing up every week we need to start focusing more on form than on statistics. When a great golfer is playing well, that consistently supersedes a good golfer with course history and good stats. Let’s go find our edge!

Tournament Stop

Tournament: RBC Heritage

Defending Champion: C.T. Pan (-12)

Course: Harbour Town GL

Yardage: 7,099

Par: 71

Greens: Bermuda

*Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut (No MDF)

Course Tidbits

The PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head, SC for the RBC Heritage. Like Colonial, Harbour Town is on the short side of PGA Tour courses and the fairways are lined with trees. Harbour Town is a shot makers course and the driver isn’t necessary on every hole. Unless of course, you’re Bryson Dechambeau and you can overpower any dogleg on tour.

It’s worth noting this is a Pete Dye design. It’s famously known for blind approach shots, hard to hit greens, and tricks that only experienced golfers will be aware of. However, don't let that scare you away from first-time golfers.

This is a coastal course so watch the weather as the week goes on. Wind can always be a factor and will add another element to make things even more interesting come Sunday.

Key Stats 

SG Short Game: Top 10 in field

- Jordan Spieth

- Webb Simpson

- Sungjae IM

- Aaron Baddeley

- Peter Malnati

- Ian Poulter

- Patton Kizzire

- Harris English

- Matthew Fitzpatrick

- Graeme McDowell

Par 4 (400-450): Top 10 in field

- Webb Simpson

- Tom Hoge

- Rafa Cabrera Bello

- Byeong Hun An

- Doc Redman

- Scott Piercy

- Harris English

- Scottie Scheffler

- Sungjae Im

- Matthew Fitzpatrick

SG Ball Striking: Top 10 in field

- Rory McIlroy

- Collin Morikawa

- Jon Rahm

- Scottie Scheffler

- Jhonattan Vegas

- Webb Simpson

- Justin Thomas

- Jason Dufner

- Scott Piercy

- Joel Dahmen

Top 10 overall rankings

- Webb Simpson

- Rory McIlroy

- Sungjae Im

- Harris English

- Jon Rahm

- Byeong Hun An

- Joel Dahmen

- Scott Piercy

- Bud Cauley

- Sergio Garcia

These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.

Best Bets: Outright to Win

Bryson DeChambeau 14/1:

Rattling off four top-five performances in a row, DeChambeau is on a mission to prove that power can change the game. Last week he gained a staggering 10.4 strokes Tee to Green. DeChambeau has no worse than 8.7 strokes gained Tee to Green in his last four tournaments.

The mad scientist has found a key ingredient to his success and will ride this power train to victory.

This course doesn’t require distance off the tee, but when he starts to cut corners he might find himself with a short wedge on every hole and ample birdie chances to follow. The winner’s circle is firmly in sight and 14/1 seems fair for the form he brings into Hilton Head, SC.

Justin Rose 30/1:

Rose proved last week that switching clubs can drastically improve your game. He ditched Hanma and went back to Taylormade which instantly made an impact on his performance. Last week at Colonial he gained strokes in every major category and crushed the greens with over five strokes gained. Mustering a respectable 3rd place finish at Colonial he left a lot of strokes on the course and will look to make them up this week. The odds are more than fair for the 10x PGA Tour winner.

Sungjae Im 30/1:

The 2019 rookie of the year hasn’t skipped a beat in 2020. In fact, he has been better. With three straight top 10 finishes and a win mixed in, he has shot up in price. I have complete confidence in Sungjae making the cut and producing scoring chances every round.

In his last three tournaments, he has gained strokes in every major category. The kid doesn’t have a single hole in his game and it only takes a hot putter for him to end up with another win. I will back him with confidence at 30/1.

Daniel Berger 40/1:

After years of playing betting on golf, the winner from the previous week seems to have a sign on his back saying:

“Don’t play me, I am not going to play great back-to-back weeks”.

Don’t worry Daniel, I will be your friend and will happily remove that sign off your back.

This golf season is instantly different than any other season in PGA Tour history. We will regularly see the same big names week after week. These guys are so ready to play golf, that they will likely play four or five tournaments in a row.

Berger will attempt to keep his stellar play alive and make a run at back to back wins. His form is incredible, with four tournaments straight in the top 10’s. We won’t get the juicy 80/1 odds like last week but 40/1 is reasonable considering he just won a tournament with practically the same field. 

Value Bets: Outright to Win

Jason Kokrak 60/1:

Last weekend Kokrak found something in his game and put himself in contention with a scorching 64 on Sunday at Colonial. He gained strokes in every major category last week, and if he brings that all-around game this week he will put himself in a great position come Sunday.

In 2019, Kokrak had a stretch where he rattled off four straight top 20 finishes. He is a form golfer and when he finds “it,” he is worth riding until he cools down again. At 60/1, his odds aren’t as low as I would like but he’s definitely worth a look.

Bubba Watson 100/1:

Bubba is one of the most notoriously streaky golfers on tour. When he has a good tournament he is always worth a look the following week. He must have been working on his putting during the long break because he gained over five strokes putting at Colonial. Bentgrass is his worst putting surface, but he putts better on Bermuda and this course forces you to make putts to be in contention. Bubba gained strokes in every major category last week; this puts him firmly in play at that price. You rarely get a golfer at 100/1 that has over 10 wins on the PGA Tour. 

Long Shots: Outright to Win

Patrick Rodgers 150/1:

Last week at Colonial, Rodgers finished Sunday with a 65. That gave him four consecutive top 30 finishes on the PGA Tour. Rodgers has yet to win on Tour but has managed to three finishes in second place and a couple of other top-five finishes sprinkled in there. At 150/1 odds, you can put a dollar on him and make all your betting money back for the week. High risk, high reward play!

Sepp Straka 400/1:

A complete moonshot with this pick but at those odds, you can put down $5 and have a chance to return $2,000. That's an incredible return on investment.

Sepp is as volatile as they come on the tour but his last few times on a Pete Dye course he has managed a 28th place finish in March and a 4th place finish in January. He seems to only make the cut on Pete Dye Designs. Worth a moonshot at 400/1!