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NFL Betting Week 11 Lookahead - Which Games Are "On The Move?"

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo takes an early look at the Week 11 NFL games garnering major line movement.

Frankie Taddeo

Sportsbooks around the country destroyed bettors in Week 10, highlighted by Cleveland Browns (-3.5) RB Nick Chubb purposely stepping out at the 1-yard line on a clear touchdown run with less than one minute remaining - resulting in only a 10-7 victory. This was followed up in the afternoon slate by the Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) scoring on a Hail Mary and then proceeding to shockingly take a knee on the ensuing conversion attempt - resulting in a 32-30 win. Both plays played a major factor in a tidal wave of money changing hands in Vegas that swung from the pockets of bettors into the wallets of the sportsbooks. 

In addition, the sportsbooks also pounded NFL bettors in Week 10 when the Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens not only failed to cover the spread, but lost straight-up as well, killing many teaser and moneyline wagers. The Green Bay Packers burned many square bettors as they defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars but failed to cover against the spread. While favorites found a way to get the job done going 11-3 SU, underdogs once again reigned supreme going 9-5 ATS enabling an easy third consecutive lucrative NFL week for sportsbooks.

The Vegas Whispers sharps, shared here only at Sports Illustrated, struggled on Sunday being burned by the Cardinals failure to kick the extra point, followed up by a horrible beat on Monday Night when Dalvin Cook came up a half yard shy of his player proposition receiving total and now stand at 50-39-1 ATS in NFL wagering this season. This followed up some brutal beats on Saturday in NCAA Football leaving the information at 19-15 ATS on the season. UFC bettors, courtesy of Casey Olson’s information, stands at 182-75-5 ATS (71%) on all wagers for all SI PRO members.

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In addition to our sharp sports betting information, horse racing handicapping ‘Race of the Week’ and PGA Best Bets for all SI PRO members, our team here at Sports Illustrated offers their picks on every NFL game!

Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves.

NFL Week 11 Games On The Move

New England at Houston Texans

Moneyline: New England (-125) | Houston (+110)

Spread: NE -2 (-110) | HOU +2 (-110)

Total: 47.5 Over (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)

Game Info: November 22, 2020 1:00 pm ET / 10:00 am PT | CBS

This game has seen the biggest move after strong support in early wagering for the Patriots in Week 11. The Patriots (4-5 SU; 4-5 ATS) opened as 2.5-point underdogs who have since flipped to 2-point road favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. New England have gone both 2-1 SU and ATS in their last three games. 

In addition, bettors have fresh in their minds the 23-17 win the Patriots handed to the Ravens on Sunday Night Football in Week 10. On the other hand, Deshaun Watson and the Texans (2-7 SU; 2-7 ATS) have covered just one of their last five games ATS. Bettors are expecting Cam Newton and the Patriots to extend their winning streak to three straight overall. 

According to my Vegas sources, 77% of spread wagers are on the Patriots in early wagering.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Moneyline: Green Bay (+115) | Indianapolis (-130)

Spread: GB +2.5 (-110) | IND -2.5 (-110)

Total: 51– Over: (-110) | Under: 51 (-110)

Game Info: November 22, 2020 4:25 pm ET / 1:25 pm PT | CBS

The Colts (6-3 SU; 5-4 ATS) have seen the line move steam in their favor after opening as 1-point home favorites against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. After last week’s impressive win on the road over the Tennessee Titans as a 1-point favorite, the line has seen significant steam nearing the prime number of three. 

Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have adjusted the line to a current market offering of Indianapolis as 2.5-point home favorites. The line move is shockingly fading a Packers (7-2 SU; 6-3 ATS) team laying the points against an Indianapolis club that has gone 4-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. 

Bettors appear to disagree with the move by the oddsmakers as nearly 71% of the early money is in support of the Packers, yet the line has witnessed reversed steam moving in the direction of the Colts. This is a game to keep an eye on as we approach Sunday.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Moneyline: Miami (-167) | Denver (+148)

Spread: MIA -3.5 (-110) | DEN +3.5 (-110)

Total: 45– Over: (-110) | Under: 45 (-110)

Game Info: November 22, 2020 4:25 pm ET / 1:25 pm PT | CBS

The Miami Dolphins (6-3 SU; 7-2 ATS) are one of the hottest teams in the NFL winning five consecutive games both SU and ATS. The AFC East surging Dolphins looked solid once again last week when rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa played well in the club’s 29-21 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The experts opened the game in Vegas with the Dolphins as 2.5-point road favorites but have since adjusted the line to Miami through the prime number of a full field goal up to 3.5-points at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Bettors continue to be burned backing the Broncos (3-6 SU; 5-4 ATS), and are fading the club at the betting windows following the news that QB Drew Lock came out of last week’s 37-12 loss to Raiders with a core muscle injury. Denver has now lost three of the last four games both SU and ATS. The ticket count has seen 69% of spread bets pour in at the betting windows in support of Tagovailoa and the Dolphins to extend their SU and ATS win streak to six in a row.

Steam Moves

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Atlanta from +6.5 down to +4.5

*This is due to the expected absence of QB Drew Brees (Ribs / Lung).

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The ‘Under-Takers’ Strike Back

For the first time in three weeks, “under” bettors expecting less points scored than the oddsmakers were predicting came out ahead as the games went 9-5 to the under in Week 10. Four games once again witnessed 50 or more points, with Tampa Bay and Carolina leading the way tied with 69 combined points. Bettors are jumping back on the ‘Over Train’ in several matchups in mid-week wagering.

Green Bay Packers / Indianapolis Colts 48.5 up to 51.5

Tennessee / Baltimore 47 up to 49

Pittsburgh Steelers / Jacksonville Jaguars 46 up to 47.5

Be sure to check back all week long for the BEST Sharp Betting information shared here only at SI Gambling! You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy and subscribe to SI Fantasy PRO to subscribe to his "Vegas Whispers" betting information.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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