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2021 College Football Playoff National Championship: Alabama vs. Ohio State Betting Breakdown

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo reviews the betting odds and previews the National Championship game betting angles between the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes.

Frankie Taddeo

The 2020 College Football National Champion will be crowned later tonight when Mac Jones and the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide face off vs. Justin Fields and the Ohio State Buckeyes as strong 8.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

The SEC champion Crimson Tide look to cap off another undefeated season and earn the 17th championship in school history. The game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The Vegas Whispers sharp information, shared here only at Sports Illustrated, remains red-hot on all released plays. Sign up for SI Fantasy PRO and receive real-time alerts for all Vegas Whispers plays!

The information is on a torrid streak going 12-4 ATS in the last 16 released NFL games and finished the regular season at 68-47-1 ATS in NFL wagering this season. In NCAA Football the respected information stands at 31-21 ATS on the season, including 6-2 ATS on official 2020 Bowl plays. UFC bettors, courtesy of Casey Olson’s information, finished 2020 at 210-87-6 ATS (71%) on all wagers for all SI PRO members.

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2021 College Football Betting Odds & Breakdown

Spread: Ohio State +8.5 (-109) | Alabama -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline: Ohio State (+240) | Alabama (-315)

Total: 75.5– Over (-109) | Under 75.5 (-112)

Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: OSU 39% | ALA: 61%

Game Info: Monday January 11, 2021 8:00pm EST / 5:00pm PST | ESPN

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change

The line has bounced around slightly since its opening in favor of No. 1 Alabama (12-0 SU; 8-4 ATS) as seven-point favorites in several shops in Las Vegas over Ohio State (7-0 SU; 4-3 ATS) with the line currently now displaying the Crimson Tide as -8.5 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The public steam pushed the number up to as high as -8.5 in Vegas after its opening on January 2, but sharp money quickly brought the number back to 7.5 points across several sportsbooks. However, public money has once again driven that number back up to the 1.5-point move we saw after the opening last week.

Bettors will find it hard to get out in front of the Alabama train led by Davey O'Brien award winner Mac Jones (3,379 passing yards; 36 touchdowns) after the command he's displayed in his junior season in Tuscaloosa. In the Rose Bowl, Jones was simply flawless, completing 25 of 30 passes for 297 yards and four touchdowns in their 31-14 win over No. 4 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl Semifinal playoff game. DraftKings has Jones passing yards set at 380.5 (-112) and his total touchdown passes set at 3.5 juiced to the over (-141).

Having weapons like wide receiver DeVonta Smith and running back Najee Harris at his disposal makes the Tide’s offensive attack a nightmare to defend. Smith has an incredible 105 receptions for 1,641 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns this season. Smith, who won the Heiman Trophy, has hauled in an amazing 22 receptions for 314 yards and five touchdowns in his past two games. DraftKings has Smith's receiving yards set at 134.5 juiced moderately to the over (-134) with his total receptions market set at 8.5 (-114). 

Harris, the Doak Walker award recipient,  has been nearly unstoppable on the ground this season, posting the most rushing touchdowns (24) in the nation while adding 1,387 rushing yards. Harris has a rushing yard total of 110.5 yards juiced to slightly to the over at odds of -121 at DraftKings with an "Anytime Touchdown" market set with the insane prohibitive odds of -3,335! Let's just say that market should be a complete 'hard' pass for all bettors. 

Alabama has reeled off 12 consecutive victories and covered an impressive seven of their last nine games against the number. However, in the CFP Semifinal playoff win over Notre Dame, the Tide left the backdoor open; allowing a rushing touchdown by Ian Book with only :56 seconds remaining to prevent bettors from cashing their Alabama (-19) tickets. Over the last five games alone, the Crimson Tide have crushed opponents outscoring them 336-96.

Ohio State, on the other hand, shocked many around the country with their convincing 49-28 win over Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers in the Sugar Bowl Semifinal playoff matchup. Perhaps the biggest surprise was seeing how quarterback Justin Fields thoroughly outplayed Lawrence; completing 22 of 28 passes for 385 yards and six touchdowns. The biggest question mark that surrounds the game leading up to kickoff tonight is how healthy Fields will be after suffering a rib injury in the victory. If Ohio State is to have any chance to compete with Alabama on the biggest stage of the season, they will need a healthy Fields against a fierce Crimson Tide front seven. DraftKings is expecting a fully healthy Fields setting his total passing yards at 309.5 and his total touchdown passes at 2.5 juiced to the over at odds of -143. 

If Fields plays at less than full strength, expect Ohio State to heavily lean on tailback Trey Sermon who has been sensational in the club’s last two games gaining 424 yards on the ground while adding three touchdowns. Sermon’s performances have garnered up comparisons to the incredible postseason success of another elite Buckeye running back - Ezekiel Ellliott. The outstanding Sugar Bowl performance of 230 rushing yards and two touchdowns were instrumental in the school’s 42-35 upset of Alabama back in the 2015 Championship Game. DraftKings is expecting another strong performance on Monday night from Sermon with a total rushing yards market set at 102.5 (-114). 

They will likely need a similar dominant performance on the ground if they hope to pull off the big upset and reward moneyline backers who go that route at odds of +240.

The way the oddsmakers view these two teams has never more evident. By looking at their power ranking disparity, it's resulting in a near full touchdown-plus difference. However, as they always they the game is played in between the white lines not in the back office of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

The Vegas Whispers sharps shared with the SI PRO betting community a teaser wager that has the possibility of cashing with an Alabama (-1.5) win after seeing the first leg of Tampa Bay (-3.5) come through following their 21-9 victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday. 

For any additional official Vegas Whispers plays, as well as any other player proposition wagers that could emerge, be sure to subscribe to SI Fantasy PRO!

Vegas Whispers PLAY: Two-Team Teaser: Tampa Bay (-3.5) & Alabama (-1.5) 

2020 Vegas Whispers NCAA Football: 31-21 ATS

2020 Vegas Whispers Bowl Selections: 6-2 ATS

***

Over the entire 2019 NFL postseason the Vegas Whispers sharps absolutely crushed the sportsbooks going 7-0 ATS and the information is currently 68-47-1 in 2020 on released NFL Plays. On Thursday NFL action, the sharps went an astounding 13-2 ATS (87%) on their plays shared here at Sports Illustrated. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, finished the 2020 Major League Baseball (MLB) at 79-60-0 +16.66 units and is currently 31-21 ATS on NCAA College Football for all SIPRO members.

Be sure to check back all week long for the BEST Sharp Betting information shared here only at SI Gambling! You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy and subscribe to SI Fantasy PRO to subscribe to his "Vegas Whispers" betting information.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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