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2021 NCAA Men's Tournament Betting Primer - History, Trends and Early Picks

SI Gambling analyst Roy Larking previews the 2021 NCAA men's tournament from a betting perspective, highlighting plays and trends from the First Four to the National Championship.

Roy Larking

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2021 March Madness: How did we get here?

Welcome to the 2021 March Madness basketball tournament, which will determine the 2020-21 NCAA Men’s Division I national champion. After the 2020 tournament was canceled, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021 event is the 82nd edition of this single-elimination tournament. First played in 1939, with a field of eight teams, Oregon won the inaugural tournament as the Ducks defeated the Ohio State Buckeyes 46–33. The First Four round was added in 2011 to bring the field to its current 68 teams.

During the first 81 tournaments, 36 different schools claimed at least one title. UCLA owns a record 11 tournament wins, followed by Kentucky (8) and North Carolina (6). After March Madness was canceled last year, Virginia enters the 2021 tournament as the defending champion. The Cavaliers claimed the 2019 title, their first in school history, as they defeated the Texas Tech Red Raiders 85–77 in overtime. That was the eighth time the championship game was decided in OT, and the first time since 2008.

The 2021 March Madness field was announced during Selection Sunday on March 14. The 31 Division I conference tournament champions received an automatic entry into the tournament. A 10-member selection committee, which is a mix of NCAA athletic directors and conference commissioners, awarded at-large bids to 37 teams to complete the field. Notable exclusions include Duke, who failed to qualify for the first time since 1995, and Kentucky who failed to qualify for just the third time since 1992.

SI’s tournament newsletter analyzes everything you need to know about the Big Dance: what just happened and what’s happening next. 

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What are the 2021 March Madness seedings?

The current March Madness seeding process was first used in 1979. Including the last three tournaments, which were won by Virginia, Villanova and North Carolina, a No. 1 seed has won the 24 of 41 championships. A No. 2 seed has won the tournament seven times with Villanova being the last team to do so in 2016. A No. 3 seed has won five titles and Connecticut was the last team to do so in 2011. Arizona (1997) is the lone No. 4 seed to win the tournament. A No. 5 seed has never won a March Madness title.

NC State (1983) and Kansas (1988) each claimed a March Madness championship as a No. 6 seed. Connecticut, as the No. 7 seed in 2014, plus Villanova as the No. 8 seed in 1985, are the lowest seeds to win the tournament. 2008 is the only year all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four round. 

With the men's tournament in sight, sportsbooks have released opening odds for the first round of the tournament. Additionally, Championship odds are now available and are subject to change. Click here to view all March Madness betting options at DraftKings. Here are the seedings for the 2021 NCAA tournament brackets.

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West Region Bracket

Gonzaga (26–0), who won the West Coast conference tournament championship, earned the top overall seed and they are the No. 1 seed in the West Region. The Bulldogs are aiming to become the first undefeated national champion since Indiana went 32–0 and won the tournament in 1976. Gonzaga, with a +205 moneyline price on the futures board at DraftKings Sportsbook is the overall favorite to win March Madness. Iowa (+1700), Kansas (+4000), and Virginia (+4000), round out the top four West Region seeds. I like Gonzaga over Kansas in the West Elite Eight round.

GONZAGA ODDS TO MAKE FINAL FOUR: -230

SI's 2021 March Madness Expert Picks and Predictions

South Region Bracket

Despite losing during the semifinal round of the Big 12 conference championship tournament, Baylor (22–2) enters March Madness as second overall seed and the No. 1 seed in South Region. The Bears (+500) are the second overall favorite to win the tournament at DraftKings. Baylor finished the season as the third highest scoring team in the nation as the Bears’ high-octane offense averaged 84.4 points per game. Ohio State (+2000), Arkansas (+5000), and Purdue (+5000), round out the top four seeds in the South Region. In a Big 12 showdown, I'll take Baylor defeating Texas Tech in the South region final.

BAYLOR ODDS TO MAKE FINAL FOUR: -134

Midwest Region Bracket

Following a 91–88 overtime win against Ohio State, in the Big Ten conference championship final, Illinois (23–6) is the overall No. 3 seed and the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. The Fighting Illini entered the season with +6000 March Madness title odds but they are now the third favorite with a +700 moneyline. Houston (+3000), who finished second overall with 58.0 points per game allowed on defense, West Virginia (+2000), and Oklahoma State (+2500), round out the top four Midwest Region seeds. I see Illinois advancing to the Final Four with an Elite Eight victory over Houston.

ILLINOIS ODDS TO MAKE FINAL FOUR: +150

East Region Bracket

Michigan, who lost 68–67 to Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, enter March Madness as the No. 4 overall seed and the No. 1 seed in the East Region. The Wolverines enter the tournament without their second leading scorer as Isaiah Livers (13.1 ppg) is out with a stress fracture in his foot. Alabama (+2000), who won the SEC championship, Texas (+2000), who won the Big 12 championship, and Florida State (+3000), round out the top four seeds in what appears to be a wide-open East Region. I'll take Texas to advance to the Final Four with an Elite Eight win over Florida State.

TEXAS ODDS TO MAKE FINAL FOUR: +450

March Madness betting is offered daily at DraftKings

March Madness 2021 tournament schedule

Due to COVID-19 concerns, the entire 2021 March Madness tournament will be played in the state of Indiana. Here is the full tournament schedule:

  • First Four Round: March 18 at Mackey Arena and Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
  • First Round: March 19–20 at Mackey Arena, Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, and Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Second Round: March 21–22 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, and Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Sweet 16: March 27–28 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and Hinkle Fieldhouse
  • Elite Eight: March 29–30 at Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Final Four: April 3 at Lucas Oil Stadium
  • Championship Game: April 5 at Lucas Oil Stadium

MORE MARCH MADNESS FROM SPORTS ILLUSTRATED

South Region Breakdown: Can Anyone Topple Baylor?

West Region Breakdown: Will Zags' Perfect Run Continue?

East Region Breakdown: Michigan Leads Pack of Contenders

Midwest Region Breakdown: Surging Illinois Faces Tough Test

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Roy Larking
ROY LARKING

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