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2021 MLB Betting Futures Update - Oddmakers Buying the Hot Start for San Francisco, Boston

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo breaks down how sportsbooks are adjusting their futures odds for the MLB season.

Frankie Taddeo

While most clubs have now played one-third of the 162 games of the 2021 season, oddsmakers are already making serious adjustments in their future markets. Focusing on one favorite or spotting a longshot who offers long-term value still remains the best way to attack futures betting.

Let’s take a deeper look into the risers and fallers in each respective offering at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas.

2021 MLB Futures - Teams on the Move

The Dodgers, Yankees, and White Sox continue to earn strong favoritism in the eyes of the oddsmakers to win their respective pennants. However, several teams in the World Series market have seen their odds drop dramatically after starting better than expected. The New York Mets, who currently stand in first place in the NL East, have seen their 30/1 opening odds cut less than half to 12/1. In addition, the San Francisco Giants, who own first place in the NL West, have seen their 60/1 opening odds cut drastically to 12/1.

Similarly, over the American League, the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox have watched their opening odds of 12/1 move to 7/1. The biggest surprise thus far is the Boston Red Sox, who currently sit in 2nd place in the AL East and have seen their opening odds of 40/1 slashed to 16/1. The oddsmakers at the Westgate Superbook believe Boston's strong start is not a fluke.

Despite the eye-opening starts by the Mets, Giants, and Red Sox, the public money continues to back the Dodgers, White Sox, Yankees, and Padres in Las Vegas sportsbooks. The San Francisco Giants have surpassed preseason expectations and have witnessed the biggest plunge in their odds. Will the upstart Giants keep up their winning ways all season?

Losing Respect

The Cincinnati Reds' opening odds of 16/1 ballooned all the way up to 80/1 as they currently occupy 4th place in the NL Central. In addition, the Philadelphia Phillies' opening odds of 30/1 have since soared to 80/1. Only two seasons removed from their 2019 World Series championship, the Washington Nationals have struggled to get on track. The oddsmakers believe those struggles will continue and have moved their opening odds of 30/1 all the way up to 100/1.

Over in the American League, the expectations were high on Minnesota heading into 2021. The sportsbooks, however, believe the Twins will not recover from their awful start in the AL Central and have adjusted their odds from 20/1 up to 60/1.

Updated 2021 World Series Odds

Screen Shot 2021-06-08 at 11.05.46 AM

Updated 2021 National League Odds

NL PEN

The Dodgers are off to the third-best record in their own division, yet still, maintain their top perch atop the NL Pennant odds board (+225). The biggest mover by far is the San Francisco Giants, who hold a three-game lead over the Dodgers and have watched their once attractive 30/1 odds drop all the way down to 6/1. In addition, the dominant pitching of Jacob DeGrom has forced oddsmakers to drop the Mets from 15/1 down to 6/1.

Updated 2021 American League Odds

AL PEN

This is a bit of a shock as the Yankees (+375) remain behind both first-place Tampa Bay Rays and the Red Sox. Nevertheless, they continue to be the favorites to capture the American League Pennant. The lack of left-handed-hitting has exposed the Yankees' inconsistencies in the eyes of the sharp bettors. New York appears to be a vulnerable favorite in this market with Tampa Bay and Chicago receiving strong support. The biggest move up the betting board is Boston, seeing their opening odds of 20/1 drop by 65% down to 7/1. The team to lose the biggest respect is Minnesota, going from odds of 10/1 to win the AL Pennant all the way up to 30/1.

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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