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How Many Receiving Yards Will Denzel Mims Total in 2020?

The New York Jets selected Denzel Mims with the No. 59 overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft. How many receiving yards will he have as a rookie?

Roy Larking

Helping set a new record, Denzel Mims was the 13th wide receiver called during the first two rounds of the 2020 NFL draft. That surpassed the previous mark (12) that was set in 2014 and included Pro Bowl receivers Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr., and Mike Evans. Joining a long list of NFL rookie prop betting options, FanDuel has set Mims over/under at 684.5 total receiving yards. After a quick look at the past - we dig into Mims's future with the Jets.

Meet the Jets’ Newest Weapon: Denzel Mims

After taking offensive tackle Mekhi Becton, at No. 11 in the first round, New York selected Mims with their second pick in the second round. Mims was a decorated three-sport athlete as he excelled in football, basketball, and track at Daingerfield High School in Texas. Highly recruited by several schools, including Tulsa, Arkansas, and Texas Tech, Mims committed to Baylor in 2016. Quiet as a freshman – Mims went on to be a three-year starter for the Bears.

Gaining national attention, Mims set a career-high with 1,087 receiving yards (8 TD) during his sophomore season. Those were impressive numbers considering Baylor struggled to a dismal 1-11 record in 2017. His production dropped as a junior as Mims had 55 catches, for 796 yards and eight scores, during the 2018 season. Finishing on a high note, Mims had 1,020 receiving yards and set career highs with 66 catches and 12 TD during his final season with Baylor.

What Does History Tell Us About Rookie Wide Receivers?

Top rookie wide receivers are being asked to contribute right out of the gate in today’s pass-happy NFL. The 2019 NFL season was a good example as five rookie receivers posted at least 685 receiving yards. Tennessee Titans wideout A. J. Brown topped the list with 1,051 receiving yards. New York Giants rookie Darius Slay was fifth, with 740 yards, but was still well above Mims posted total. Apart from D.K. Metcalf, each of those rookies had low ranking quarterbacks.

Related Receiving Prop Betting Options to Ponder

FanDuel has posted receiving total prop betting options on many of the top 2020 rookie wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy, selected at No. 15 overall by Denver, is being projected as the most productive of the group as his total is set at 824.5 receiving yards. CeeDee Lamb, selected at No. 17 by Dallas, is next up with an over/under set at 749.5 yards. Henry Ruggs III (740.5), Justin Jefferson (725.5), and Jalen Reagor (700.5) each have a higher receiving total than Mims.

Jets’ 2020 Offense

New York went into the draft looking to add some new weapons for Sam Darnold. The Jets' most significant need was filling the void created when Robby Anderson signed with Carolina. That left Jamison Crowder as the Jets leading receiver after he posted 833 yards and six TD last season. Before the draft, New York signed Tampa Bay free agent Breshad Perriman who closed the 2019 season strong after Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were placed on injured reserve.

The New York passing offense has not ranked higher than 13th (2015) during the past ten seasons. In that time, they have ranked 24th or worse seven times – including the last four seasons. With Perriman and Mims stretching the field, plus Crowder having more room to roam in the middle, the Jets are positioned to break that trend this season. New York is hopeful that tight end Chris Herndon can return from a suspension and injury-plagued 2019 season.

Le’Veon Bell is hoping his second season in the Big Apple will be better than his first. Bell posted 789 rushing yards, with three touchdowns, and New York ranked second last with 78.6 rushing yards per game last season. Buffalo Bills free agent Frank Gore joins Bell in the Jets backfield and will play a limited role during his 16th NFL season. The Jets ground game will receive a boost if Darnold and his new speedy wide receivers can produce consistent connections.

Bottom Line

Stepping into a good situation, from a depth chart perspective, Mims will battle Perriman for the WR2 role in the Jets offense. How Sam Darnold progresses in his third season will have an impact on his receiving total. New York bolstered its offensive line during the offseason, adding Becton and several free agents, so Darnold will receive better pass protection. The Jets offense is heading in the right direction, and I like OVER as the best bet here.

The Play: OVER 684.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

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Roy Larking
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