Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop Bet: Odds and Predictions

During his rookie campaign in 2019, Raiders rusher Josh Jacobs picked up 1,150 yards on the ground which was the seventh most in the NFL

Bill Enright | Jun 3, 2020

During his rookie campaign in 2019, Raiders rusher Josh Jacobs picked up 1,150 yards on the ground which was the seventh most in the NFL. The oddsmakers are essentially asking if he can replicate that exact total in 2020. His current rushing yards prop is set at 1,149.5 yards with the over and under set at -110. Given the Raiders back saw 242 carries in 2019 and maintained an impressive 4.8 yards-per-carry average as a rookie, it’s not too far-fetched to expect the same type of production.

But what do Sports Illustrated’s fantasy and gambling analysts predict for Jacobs in his second season? Watch the above video to find out if gamblers should take the over or under.

Read the transcript from the interview with Frank Taddeo and Shawn Childs:

Bill Enright: Raiders running back Josh Jacobs had 1150 yards during his rookie year. What is he going to do in year two? Let's find out what our fantasy and gambling analyst Frank Taddeo and Shawn Childs think about the Los Vegas running back for 2020. Frank, I'll go to you. What are the oddsmakers putting his rushing total at?

Frank Taddeo: Yeah, Bill, right now the oddsmakers are asking you a simple question: can he repeat the exact same amount of yards from his rookie season? Right now, they have his rushing yards set for this season at the exact same amount at 1149.5 yards. For me, I think it's furtively easy yes. I think all sports bettors are going to want to target running backs who are bell cow backs as opposed to ones that are in committees. Jacobs is easily going to get the most volume in this offense and he's only really going to need to average 71.8 Yards over a 16 game season. And for me, I actually my projections, my model right now, Bill, as I'm easily going over this number, I'm not so sure if he's maybe going to see a little bit less carries and maybe more work in the passing game because we know, as fantasy owners, that he kind of falls behind some of the elite backs in that area. But for me, my model right now thinks that he's easily going to get this number once again, getting the amount of volume expected in 2020.

Bill Enright: All right, Shawn, let's go over to you. You do our projections for every player in the NFL for fantasy football purposes. What are your projections saying about Jacobs?

Shawn Childs: I mean, there's a lot to like here. 6 out of his 13 games last year, he had over 20 touches, 8 runs over 20 yards. He runs over 45 games over 100 yards. Pretty special guy. He even played through a shoulder injury. So he's going to be a high volume guy. I put him at 290 carries for 1350 yards. So, as Frankie said, he's going to go pretty easy over. He's probably going to get a few more catches. They'd like to get more involved. Overall, he's this guy who is going to touch the ball probably 20 times a game. Those are the type of guys that can get high volumes and he is going to be a very attractive bet for the fantasy gamblers in this prop.

Bill Enright: For more player props, you can check out what we have over on SI.com/gambling. Frank and Shawn, great analysis as always.

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Published Jun 3, 2020

BILL ENRIGHT

Bill Enright is the Managing Editor of Sports Illustrated's Sports Betting and Fantasy division. He's an award winning fantasy football analyst and has a winning betting record on NFL Player Props since 2017. Follow Bill on Twitter: @BillEnright