World Wide Technology Championship Betting Preview: Schmid Seeks First Win in Mexico

Matt Vincenzi breaks down the third-to-last event of the PGA Tour's fall season and offers picks.

Matti Schmid, pictured at the 2021 U.S. Open, is one to watch this week in Mexico. / Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

As time runs out on the FedEx Cup Fall, the PGA Tour heads to Los Cabos, Mexico, to play the 2024 World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal at Diamante. 

Previously named the Mayakoba Golf Classic and the OHL at Mayakoba, the event was held at El Camaleón Golf Club for 16 years prior to being moved to El Cardonal last season. El Camaleón is now utilized for the LIV Golf Mayakoba event. 

El Cardonal at Diamante is a 7,452-yard, par-72 Tiger Woods design featuring paspalum greens. “Influenced by the old-style courses of Southern California where he grew up playing, Tiger created a course that brings back the need for strategy—providing players with several shot options to navigate during each hole,” a description of the course reads on TGR Design's website.

This event features 120 players vying for a spot in the top 125 for the next season with only two events remaining following this week. Some of the notable golfers in the field include Cameron Young, Keith Mitchell, J.J. Spaun, Maverick McNealy and Daniel Berger.

Past Winners at World Wide Technology Championship

El Cardonal at Diamante

• 2023: Erik Van Rooyen (-27)

El Camaleón Golf Club

• 2022: Russell Henley (-23)
• 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23)
• 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
• 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
• 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
• 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
• 2016: Pat Perez (-21)
• 2015: Kevin Kisner (-18)
• 2014: Charlie Hoffman (-17)
• 2013: Harris English (-21)

Let's take a look at several metrics for El Cardonal at Diamante to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes-gained approach

When speaking about the course, Woods said, “angles of approach are going to be very important and will dictate the type of shots you should consider.” With his influence, there’s no surprise that El Cardonal will play as a second-shot golf course. 

Total strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Lucas Glover (+1.14)
2. Doug Ghim (+0.87)
3. Nick Hardy (+0.82) 
4. J.J. Spaun (+0.77)
5. Austin Smotherman (+0.77)

Driving distance

El Cardonal features some forgiving fairways and is a relatively long course, so distance should be favored over accuracy this week. 

Total driving distance over past 24 rounds:

1. Kevin Dougherty (309.3)
2. Alejandro Tosti (308.5) 
3. Cameron Young (307.3)
4. Omar Morales (306.9)
5. Keith Mitchell (306.7)

Strokes-gained total: paspalum

Paspalum greens are a different surface than what most of the Tour players are used to. They can be bumpy and slow, and certain golfers tend to really thrive on them year-in, year-out.

Comparable greens can be found at TPC Kuala Lumpur (CIMB Classic), Coco Beach Golf and Country Club (Puerto Rico Open) and Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship).

Total strokes-gained paspalum over past 36 rounds:

1. Alex Smalley (+1.69) 
2. Nico Echavarria (+1.50)
3. Matt Kuchar (+1.47)
4. Brandon Wu (+1.43)
5. Taylor Montgomery (+1.40)

Birdie-or-better percentage

At a resort course in Mexico, we will likely see some scoreable conditions this week. Therefore, it will be important to target golfers who consistently see birdie opportunities from within 15 feet. Historically, poor putters have done fairly well on paspalum, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a typically strong tee to green player get hot with the flat stick.

Birdie or Better Percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Harry Hall (+23.8) 
2. Keith Mitchell (+21.3)
3. Matthias Schmid (+19.0)
4. Max Greyserman (+18.5)
5. Joe Highsmith (+18.0)

Strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions

At the end of the day, this is a resort course in Mexico during the swing season. There’s a high likelihood of this event turning into a birdiefest like it did last year.

Total strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions:

1. Harry Hall (+1.75) 
2. Max Greyserman (+1.74)
3. Rico Hoey (+1.56)
4. J.J. Spaun (+1.52)
5. Matt Kuchar (+1.50)

Statistical model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of strokes-gained approach (28%) driving distance (15%); strokes-gained paspalum (18%); birdie-or-better percentage (21%) and strokes-gained total in easy scoring conditions (18%)

1. Harry Hall
2. Doug Ghim
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Lucas Glover
5. Jhonattan Vegas
6. Joe Highsmith
7. Michael Kim
8. Patton Kizzire
9. Henrik Norlander
10. Nick Hardy

2024 World Wide Technology Championship Picks

Matti Schmid +2500 (FanDuel)

Matti Schmid is still winless as a professional, which is quite surprising given his immense talent. In his most recent start at the Shiners Children's Open, the 26-year-old was in contention for much of the weekend but struggled to gain any separation and was stuck in neutral as J.T. Poston surged up the leaderboard.

The stagnant weekend play and poor course management while in contention was concerning, but it's just too difficult to ignore how well Schmid is playing. In his past three starts, the German has finished T16 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, fifth at the Black Desert Championship and T3 at the Shriners. He will now head to a course which I view as the best fit for Schmid of the four.

Throughout his career, Schmid has played his best golf on easy tracks, and El Cardonal at Diamante definitely fits the bill. Last year, the course yielded a 27-under winner, and there isn't reason to believe that 2024 will be any different. Over his past 24 rounds, Schmid ranks third in the field in birdie-or-better percentage and 13th in strokes-gained total on “easy” courses.

Players who have had past success on paspalum typically are prone to repeat that success. Schmid finished T10 at this year's Puerto Rico Open, so the slow paspalum greens most likely fit his eye. That would check out when looking at his weekend at the Shriners as Schmid's scoring began to slow down as the greens sped up.

Despite the troubling signs we saw from Schmid in contention a few weeks ago, he's worth one more shot this week in Mexico given his ability to make birdies in bunches and capitalize on weak fields.

Matt Kuchar +3000 (FanDuel)

Matt Kuchar has shown a lack of stamina in his last few chances to secure his ninth PGA Tour victory, but he simply fits this golf course too well to ignore.

Last year, Kuchar was in second place at the halfway stage and took the lead early in Round 3 before a disastrous quadruple bogey derailed his Saturday, although he did share the co-lead going into the final round. On Sunday, the veteran played almost well enough to win, shooting 65. However, it wasn't quite enough as Erik Van Rooyen shot a scorching 63, but Kuchar did show us how well he fits the golf course.

Matt Kuchar has been fantastic on paspalum and on easy golf courses, particularly in the fall swing. He's already won in Mexico at Mayakoba in a fairly memorable tournament due to the El Tucan caddie situation. Over his past 24 rounds, the 46-year-old ranks sixth in approach, fifth in strokes-gained total with easy scoring conditions and third in strokes-gained total on paspalum.

Kuchar has been knocking at the door consistently since July in hopes of securing one more win on the PGA Tour. There's no doubt that Matt believes he can win another one and this week is arguably the best chance he will have in terms of course fit and current form.

Michael Kim +5000 (FanDuel)

It's been quite a while, but a player who's proven he can go extremely low to win a PGA Tour event is former Cal standout, Michael Kim. Kim won the 2018 John Deere Classic by lapping the field at 27 under, eight shots clear of second place.

Kim has been putting on a clinic with his irons this fall. In his three October starts, he gained 6.16, 5.60 and 3.92 strokes on the field in strokes-gained approach. The 15.68 strokes he gained on approach combined in the three events is good for the best ever three-tournament stretch he's had on the PGA Tour.

While the stats were excellent, Kim squandered the first two of the aforementioned starts with some dismal putting and missed the cut at both the Country Club of Jackson and the Black Desert Resort. He did, however, put it all together in his most recent start at TPC Summerlin. Kim finished T5 which marked his best result since the 2023 Wyndham Championship.

Kim is another player who's had a great deal of success on paspalum. He has top 25 finishes at the Puerto Rico Open (2022, 2023, 2024), the Corales Puntacana Championship (2024) and the World Wide Technology Championship last year (T23). His success at both this course and similar courses should give him some confidence heading into the week.

Kim currently sits 115th on the FedEx Cup Fall standings, so a strong performance this week would go a long way for the 31-year-old.

Alex Smalley +7500 (FanDuel)

Smalley struggled in his most recent start at the Shriners Children's Open, but I'm willing to overlook one lackluster start from a player who's shown some very encouraging signs this fall.

Prior to the 65th place finish at TPC Summerlin, Smalley was riding some solid form, finishing T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T25 at the Black Desert Championship. At the Country Club of Jackson, the former Duke Blue Devil gained 4.08 strokes on approach and 7.48 strokes from tee to green. In Utah, Smalley was once again steady, gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach.

Over the past four seasons, Smalley has been excellent on paspalum greens. He has finishes of T14 (2021), T2 (2022) and T6 (2024) at the Corales Puntacana Championship. He also finished T6 at the 2022 Mexico Open. In his past 24 and 36 rounds, Smalley ranks first in the field in strokes-gained total on paspalum.

Smalley is another player who's yet to win as a professional but is capable of putting together the type of ball striking performance that can lead him to victory at a FedEx Cup fall PGA Tour event.

Alejandro Tosti +11000 (FanDuel)

Alejandro Tosti has made a name for himself on the PGA Tour for his eccentric personality and controversial antics on the course. Tosti is known for wearing his heart on his sleeve, and although it may hurt him at times, shows how much finding a way to compete on the PGA Tour means to him.

Tosti is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field. Over his past 24 rounds, he ranks second in the field in driving distance. The Argentine can get a bit inaccurate at times, but that shouldn't be an enormous hindrance at this golf course.

Tosti is yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 at the Pinnacle Bank Championship, beating out Max Greyserman by three shots. Prior to playing on the KFT, Tosti won twice on the Latinoamerica Tour (2019 and 2022).

After a run of poor form, the 28-year-old showed some signs of life in his most recent start at TPC Summerlin, finishing T9. Tosti’s special ability to hit driver was on full display as he gained 4.72 strokes off the tee, which ranked 3rd in the field.

In 2023, Tosti finished T10 at the Mexico Open (Vidanta Vallarta). If he can make enough putts to reward his fantastic off the tee game, he could find himself in contention this week.

Rafael Campos +35000 (FanDuel)

This pick is an extreme long shot and for good reason, but I've convinced myself that the stars are capable of aligning for Rafael Campos this week in Mexico.

In his past nine starts on paspalum, Campos has made nine cuts. Among the made cuts are a T3 at the 2021 Puerto Rico Open, a T2 at the 2021 Corales Puntacana Championship and back-to-back top 20 finishes in his two most recent Paspalum starts in 2024 (T18 at the Puerto Rico Open and T14 at the Corales Puntacana Championship).

For a player at this price, it's unlikely that the recent results will jump off the page, however, the Puerto Rican did flash recently at the Procore Championship in September, finishing T13. Campos also had a strong season on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023, accumulating eight top 20 finishes in a span of 21 starts.

Given his remarkably consistent track record on paspalum, I believe Campos is worth a shot this week in Mexico. I'd also suggest a top 20 bet at +750 (FanDuel).

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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