Power Rankings: A 45-1 Dark Horse Looks Ready to Break Through at Mexico Open

In our latest Power Rankings, Tony Finau eyes a repeat but a longshot at a nice price is lurking.

Welcome to Power Rankings, a weekly feature on SI Golf from our partners at KeyCompete. This week the PGA Tour moves to Vidanta Vallarta for the Mexico Open, where Tony Finau will try to win this event for the second straight year.

2024 Mexico Open Course Preview

Designed by Greg Norman, Vidanta Vallarta’s fairways meander through lush tropical landscapes bordered by crystal-clear waterways and punctuated by strategically placed bunkers. 

Signature holes include the daunting par-3 8th, with a dramatic carry over water to a well-guarded green, and the par-5 18th, a risk-reward finish. Recent renovations have enhanced the course's character and kept it challenging. Finau won last year by three shots with a total of 24 under. Here are the players our model favors this week:

Tony Finau enters the Mexico Open as the betting favorite :: Hector Vivas / Getty Images

2024 KeyCompete’s PGA Mexico Open Power Rankings

(Odds from the SI Sportsbook)

1. Tony Finau (+700): Betting favorite enters with momentum and a game that fits perfectly with the demands of Vidanta Vallarta. Known for his powerful drives and calm demeanor under pressure, Finau's recent performances have solidified his place at the top.

2. Nicolai Hojgaard (+1400): The young Dane has been making waves on the international scene with his fearless play and exceptional talent. Power and precision make him a strong pick.

3. Emiliano Grillo (+2200): A proven track record on Latin American soil, Grillo brings precision and a keen putting touch. His familiarity with the conditions and a solid start to the season place him high here.

4. Stephan Jaeger (+2200): Has consistently shown that he can compete at the highest level, with a game that balances aggressiveness and course management. A serious threat.

5. Thomas Detry (+2500): The Belgian star has been on the cusp of a breakthrough, and Vidanta Vallarta could well be the venue for it thanks to his all-around game and recent form.

6. Taylor Pendrith (+2500): Known for one of the most powerful swings on Tour, Pendrith has the ability to dominate par-5s. If he can harness his power and maintain accuracy, he's a dark horse.

7. Thorbjorn Oleson (+2800): Has shown flashes on both the DP World and PGA Tours, he enters looking to capitalize on his versatility and experience.

8. Patrick Rodgers (+3000): Has been inching closer to a signature win. His game suits Vidanta Vallarta, making him a potential surprise.

9. Erik Van Rooyen (+3300): Unique blend of creativity and power makes him an intriguing contender.

10. Ryo Hisatsune (+4500): Our favorite sleeper, Hisatsune has shown he can compete with the best. At the current odds, he's a compelling pick with upside.

About Last Week

The 2024 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club concluded in spectacular fashion, thanks to Hideki Matsuyama’s 8-under-par 62 to snag the title. Meanwhile, headliners Jordan Spieth (scorecard DQ) and Tiger Woods (illness) exited abruptly.

KeyCompete had an unsatisfying week, going 3-5 on our best bets thanks to final-round struggles from Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, and Jordan Spieth’s stunning DQ. But we’re still 31-22 on the year and our win rate tops 65% since our inception.