2024 Cognizant Classic: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for PGA National

Our expert says this year's trend of underdog winners comes to an end on the Champion course.

Jake Knapp had the lowest pre-tournament odds of any winner on the PGA Tour this year. Let that sink in for a minute. In what has been an incredible year for Cinderella stories, the betting world definitely needs a shift in landscape. With less than seven weeks until the Masters and just two weeks to The Players Championship, we are all excited the Tour has traveled to Florida for the Cognizant Classic.

Known for decades as the Honda Classic, the home venue since 2007 is the Champion course at PGA National Resort and Spa in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. The Champion is best known for a three-hole stretch on the back nine called the “Bear Trap.” The par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th make up this terrible trio of holes. Oddly enough, there is another three-hole stretch on the front nine (Nos. 5-7) that play even more difficult against par.

The average winning score at the Cognizant Classic over the past 10 years is 9 under par. (Remember last year when our pick Chris Kirk (+3000) took home the trophy!) One of the most difficult tests on Tour outside of the majors, the field of 144 players better bring their ballstriking skills. A purse of $9 million is available for the top 65 and ties who play the weekend. Thirteen of the top 40 in the OWGR are listed which is far better than the strength of field I witnessed one year ago.

Plenty of sand and water must be managed at the Champion course :: Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

The trick(s) to contending on this Jack Nicklaus redesign is keeping the ball in play. Fifteen holes have penalty areas (water!) and there are 60 bunkers. The par-71 layout covers 7,147 yards and that par is new for 2024 as the very difficult par-4 10th hole has been slightly lengthened and will play as a par-5. What was once one of the hardest holes will now play much easier. The winning total may change slightly, but the total numeric score shouldn’t be affected much at all.

The last 10 winners led the field in a couple very important categories. This is an approach players' arena. Be able to flight your irons in the wind, control your distances and you’ll have a serious edge over the field. The best iron players always contend here. The winners have gained an average of six strokes on the field in recent years. Iron play is crucial when it comes to succeeding on the par-3s. This collection is one of the toughest on Tour. The field bogey rate averages 18% for these four holes while the birdie rate only averages 11%

That kind of scoring volatility is why half of the last 14 winners had pre-tournament odds of +8000 or higher and half held odds of +3500 or lower. Thankfully, the Bear Trap will play downwind this week. PGA National, like Vidanta Vallarta, sits close to the coast. The forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s and wind speeds in the high teens. Enough to test everyone around this trouble-laden terrain.

The ground is covered in Bermudagrass. A key detail as with the switch to the east coast, certain players will begin to pop who putt better outside the western time zones. Leaderboards over the years at PGA National are littered with solid short-game players as well. Those same 10 winners gained over two strokes on the field around the green. That makes perfect sense when you know the guys fall well under the Tour average of greens in regulation on the Champion.

Digging deeper, my research alerted me to the fact that southeast Florida has received a ton of rain this winter. Lack of sunshine and oversaturated turf conditions have the rough thinner than tournament organizers would like. Watch for an edge to the power players which normally wouldn’t be there as missing the fairway is historically a great way to be a trunk slammer on Friday.

Every field feels wide open when you just look at the recent results. The fact is, we have a bunch of unlikely winners every season on the PGA Tour. This group just all happened to start the 2024 season. As we move east and begin the seven-week migration to Magnolia Lane, watch the favorites start rounding into form. I’m sticking with the names we know when it comes to my win, place, and show for the Cognizant Classic.

Win: Russell Henley

Let’s roll with Russell Henley this week for three reasons. Henley has been in great ballstriking form since last month's Sony Open, gaining an average of two strokes tee-to-green in his last five starts. Russell is heading to Florida where he will be putting on his favorite surface, Bermudagrass. That grainy green surface is why he has had great success at PGA National. In nine starts, Henley has a win, six top 25s and a top 10 in each of his last two starts on the Champion course. Take Russell Henley to win the Cognizant Classic (+2500 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Maverick McNealy finished T13 at the Mexico Open, respectable but not the "W" we wanted.
Year-to-date: 0–8, -8.00 units

Place: J.T. Poston

Another hot ballstriker from the West Coast swing is J.T. Poston. Poston has six starts this season, finishing T5-6-T11-T20-MC-T10. Poston delivers with the putter on Bermudagrass, and his approach play puts him near the top of the field for ball striking. He has 10 top 20s in his last 15 starts! Take J.T. Poston to finish Top 20 (+145 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's result: Lost. Nicolai Hojgaard finished T52 in Mexico, no bueno for our top-10 ticket.
Year-to-date: 2–6, -3.32 units

Showdown: Tom Hoge over Luke List

Similar to Henley and Poston, Tom Hoge comes in with scorching-hot ball-striking numbers. With four top 20s in his last five starts, the approach king is doing his thing. In his last seven starts, Luke List has lost strokes around the green. You’ll need some serious bogey avoidance at PGA National. Not to mention, for a weak putter List’s history on Bermudagrass is not good. Take Tom Hoge over Luke List head-to-head (-110 DraftKings). 

Last week's result: Lost. We bet Michael Kim to beat Austin Eckroat, and Kim missed the cut.
Year-to-date: 3–4, -1.40 units

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Rory McIlroy +750

Cameron Young +2000

Eric Cole +2000

Byeong Hun An +2500

Russell Henley +2500

Matt Fitzpatrick +2800

Tom Kim +2800

J.T. Poston +3000

Shane Lowry +3000

Adam Svensson +3300

Corey Conners +3300

Daniel Berger +3300

Keith Mitchell +3300

Min Woo Lee +3300

Sepp Straka +3300

Stephan Jaeger +3300

Sungjae Im +3300

Chris Kirk +3500

Luke List +4000

Beau Hossler +4500

Matthieu Pavon +4500

Rasmus Hojgaard +4500

Alex Noren +5000

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000

Denny McCarthy +5000

Tom Hoge +5000