2025 Sentry Betting Models, Picks: Starting the Season With Low Scores at Kapalua

Hitting fairways and greens won't be a problem at the highly scorable season opener.

The PGA Tour's opening two-week Hawaii swing starts at Kapalua. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour makes its return this week as we head to the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui to play the Sentry. Kapalua is a unique par-73 measuring 7,596 yards.

The Sentry is a no-cut event and usually plays extremely easy for the field. Eight of the past nine winners have finished with a score of 22 under or better. In 2022, Cameron Smith set the tournament record by finishing at 34 under. Wide fairways and soft greens typically make the event scorable, but coastal wind and elevation changes can occasionally make some shots difficult.

The field will feature 60 of the world's top golfers. All of the winners on the PGA Tour from last season in addition to the 50 golfers at the top of the FedEx Cup rankings have received an invite. Scottie Scheffler, who sustained a hand injury over the holidays, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood are not in the field.

Past Winners at The Sentry

• 2024: Chris Kirk (-29)
• 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
• 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
• 2021: Harris English (-25)
• 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-22)
• 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30)
• 2015: Patrick Reed (-21)

Let's take a look at several metrics for Kapalua's Plantation Course to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes-gained approach

With Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages extremely high at Kapalua (78.9%), just getting on the putting surface won't cut it. In a very low-scoring event, golfers will need to have their irons and wedges dialed in to provide scoring opportunities.

Total strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Nico Echavarria (+0.91)
2. Xander Schauffele (+0.87)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+0.75)
4. Tony Finau (+0.74)
5. Nick Dunlap (+0.71)

Strokes-gained off the tee

With fairways being wide and easy to hit, bombers should be able to let it rip off the tee this week. Golfers with a strong off-the-tee game should end up with a wedge in their hand for their approach shot which will give them an advantage on the shorter hitters.

Strokes-gained off the tee over past 24 rounds:

1. Jhonnatan Vegas (+0.65)
2. Cameron Young (+0.54)
3. Xander Schauffele (+0.52)
4. Davis Thompson (+0.50)
5. Taylor Pendrith (+0.48)

Course history

This statistic will incorporate players who’ve fared well at Kapalua over their past 24 rounds. 

Course history over past 24 rounds (minimum eight rounds):

1. Xander Schauffele (+1.61)
2. Collin Morikawa (+1.61)
3. Justin Thomas (+1.31)
4. Sungjae Im (+1.27)
5. Patrick Cantlay (+1.12) 

Par-5 scoring average

Taking advantage of all of the par 5s will be crucial this week. Historically, par-5 scoring has been more indicative of the winner at this tournament than par-3 or par-4 scoring. The player who posts the lowest cumulative score on the par-5 holes will put themselves in a good position to win come Sunday.

Par-5 scoring average over past 24 rounds:

1. Kevin Yu (4.39) 
2. Max Greyserman (4.39) 
3. Harry Hall (4.39)
4. Eric Cole (4.41)
5. Taylor Pendrith (4.45)

Strokes-gained putting on slow Bermudagrass

The Bermudagrass greens at Kapalua are notoriously slow. In a low-scoring event, golfers will need to make a lot of putts to win, and those who prefer putting on slow Bermuda should have the advantage. 

Total strokes-gained putting on slow Bermudagrass over past 24 rounds:

1. Akshay Bhatia (+1.21) 
2. Nico Echavarria (+1.09) 
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.82) 
4. Patton Kizzire (+0.81) 
5. Peter Malnati (+0.75) 

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of strokes-gained approach (25%), strokes-gained off the tee (20%), strokes-gained par-5s (20%), course history (15%) and strokes-gained: putting on slow Bermudagrass (15%)

1. Xander Schauffele 
2. Patrick Cantlay
3. Collin Morikawa
4. Brian Harman
5. Sungjae Im
6. J.T. Poston
7. Justin Thomas
8. Patton Kizzire
9. Tony Finau
10. Corey Conners

2025 Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks

Patrick Cantlay +1800 (DraftKings)

Patrick Cantlay is winless since August 2022, but I believe that will change at some point early in 2025. The 32-year-old was able to shake off the rust at the Hero World Challenge in December, finishing 11th out of 20 players but gaining 3.84 strokes on approach, which was fourth-best in the field.

Kapalua sets up well for Cantlay. In his six trips to the course, he's never finished worse than 16th and boasts fourth-place finishes on two occasions (2020, 2022). He ranks fifth in the field in strokes-gained total at Kapalua and sixth in his past 24 rounds on slow Bermudagrass greens.

After a considerable stretch of poor play by his standards, Cantlay ended 2024 strong, finishing in the top 25 of his final seven starts. Despite the winless streak, I firmly believe Cantlay is one of the best players on the PGA Tour and should be in for a resurgent 2025.

Akshay Bhatia +4000 (DraftKings)

Akshay Bhatia is poised for a breakout season in 2025. Still not even 23 years old, Bhatia is, in my opinion, a player who possesses as much raw talent as just about any player on the PGA Tour. In 2024, we saw the lefty begin to show flashes of brilliance.

In December's Hero World Challenge, Bhatia finished fourth and gained 4.96 strokes on approach, which ranked third behind only Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas.

Akshay ranks first in the field when putting on slow Bermudagrass greens. That shouldn't come as a surprise, as he's thrived throughout the early part of his career on island-type courses. He won the Bahamas Great Exuma Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 and also has top-5 finishes at the Puerto Rico Open and Mexico Open.

Bhatia is no stranger to going low. He won the Valero Texas Open at 20 under last year as well as a Stableford scoring event at the Barracuda which required a massive number of birdies and eagles.

I grabbed Akshay Bhatia at 90-1 on DraftKings when prices came out, but I still endorse a bet on him at the current 50-1 price.

Max Homa +7000 (DraftKings)

I simply believe the number of Max Homa is far too big this week. Yes, he had a disappointing 2024 but he is still one of the better players on the PGA Tour and played enough golf over the past few months to be sharp enough for contention in Maui.

Homa played in the Nedbank Golf Challenge in December, finishing T14. He flashed some encouraging iron play and gained 2.32 strokes on approach for the week. What has gotten Max into trouble both last season and in the fall was his driving accuracy, which I believe is less of a concern this week.

Homa has some surprising but encouraging form at Kapalua. He finished T3 here in 2023 and T14 in 2024. Given that it's a unique course, it can sometimes take a few starts for players to get extremely comfortable with the hilly layout.

Homa is a strong bounce back candidate for 2025 and backing him at long odds in his first start of the year is a low-risk way to invest in the 34-year-old early.

Max is Maui ready 🌺

Last January, Homa set a record with a 477-yard drive during the third round of The Sentry, the longest in the PGA Tour's ShotLink era, ready for round 5!#TheSentry | @Maxhoma pic.twitter.com/WtzyK2o9AK

— The Sentry (@TheSentry) December 24, 2024

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