2025 Sony Open Betting Models, Picks: Keeping an Eye on Winds at Waialae

Accuracy is key in Honolulu, and Matt Vincenzi offers picks with that in mind in the final stop of the Hawaiian swing.

Waialae Country Club is the familiar setting for the Sony Open in Hawaii. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The PGA Tour moves on to Honolulu, staying in Hawaii for one more week to play the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Waialae is a 7,044-yard par-70 that was built in 1927 and has featured a Tour event each year since 1965. The Sony Open is the first full-field event of the year.

The Sony Open field has 144 golfers. Some notable names in the field include Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Corey Conners, Ben An, Keegan Bradley and Si Woo Kim.

The Sony Open is typically a low-scoring affair, albeit a bit less so than the Sentry. We should see plenty of birdies, but wind can provide some defense for the golf course, so it may prove wise to keep an eye on the forecast this week.

Past Winners at the Sony Open

• 2024: Grayson Murray (-17)
• 2023: Si Woo Kim (-18)
• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
• 2021: Kevin Na (-21)
• 2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
• 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
• 2018: Patton Kizzire (-17)
• 2017: Justin Thomas (-27)
• 2016: Fabian Gomez (-20)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-23)

Let's take a look at several metrics for Waialae Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes-gained approach

Green sizes are much smaller at Waialae than we saw last week at Kapalua. Golfers will also be hitting greens in regulation at a far lower clip, therefore requiring iron play to be even more sharp in order to contend.

Total strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Lucas Glover (+1.55)
2. Kurt Kitayama (+1.45)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.18)
4. Tom Kim (+1.12)
5. Gary Woodland (+1.10)

Good drive percentage

Not only are the greens much smaller at Waialae than we saw at Kapalua, but the fairways are also a lot smaller as well. Last week, golfers were spraying errant drives with little consequence; that won’t be the case this week.

While missing the fairway might not be incredibly penal, those who split the middle on the narrow fairways will be rewarded with flat lies and straightforward approach shots.

Total Good drive percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Daniel Berger (91.1%)
2. Paul Peterson (91.1%)
3. Doug Ghim (91.0%) 
4. Joe Highsmith (89.9%)
5. Greyson Sigg (89.9%)

Strokes-gained short game

With small fairways and greens, it is to be expected that golfers will have to scramble around the green at one point or another. Strokes-gained short game encompasses both chipping around the green and putting to account for tough par putts while scrambling.

Historically, players with great hands and short games have had success here.

Strokes-gained short game over past 24 rounds:

1. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.79)
2. Vincent Whaley (+1.69)
3. Harry Hall (+1.01)
4. Jacob Bridgeman (+1.01)
5. Paul Peterson (+1.0)

Strokes-gained total in moderate or windy conditions

Wind is the best defense for Waialae. This week it looks like the wind will be up at around 15-20 mph all week, which may impact scoring. 

Strokes-gained total in moderate or windy conditions over past 24 rounds:

1. Russell Henley (+1.69)
2. Billy Horschel (+1.66)
3. Luke Clanton (1.50)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+1.48) 
5. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.43)

Course history

Course history seems to be particularly important at Waialae, as 18 of the past 19 winners have played the course previously before hoisting the trophy. It is also common to see similar players pop up on the leaderboard year after year in Honolulu, so a bit of course history should be factored in.

Course history per round, minimum 16 rounds:

1. Byeong Hun An (+2.30)
2. Russell Henley (+1.91)
3. Nick Taylor (+1.75)
4. Chris Kirk (+1.68)
5. Taylor Montgomery (+1.67)

Comparable courses rankings

New this year, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For Waialae, I am using Sedgefield CC, Colonial, Harbour Town, Sea Island (Seaside), El Camaleon and Port Royal.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Luke Clanton
2. Russell Henley
3. Mac Meissner
4. Tom Kim
5. Patrick Fishburn
6. Rico Hoey
7. Ryo Hisatsune
8. Ben Griffin
9. Seamus Power
10. Michael Thorbjornsen

Statistical model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of strokes-gained approach (26%), good drive percentage (20%), strokes-gained short game (15%), course history (15%), strokes-gained in the wind (10%) and course comps (14%)

1. Russell Henley
2. Ben Griffin
3. Lucas Glover 
4. Maverick McNealy
5. Andrew Putnam
6. Corey Conners
7. Billy Horschel 
8. Seamus Power
9. Matt Kuchar
10. Daniel Berger

2025 Sony Open picks

Tom Kim +2000 (DraftKings)

Tom Kim is a perfect fit for Waialae and should be in good form coming into the event. The 22-year-old played the Hero World Challenge last month and finished second to Scottie Scheffler. For the week, Tom ranked third in strokes-gained tee to green, second in strokes-gained around the green and fourth in strokes-gained off the tee.

Kim missed the cut at the Sony Open last year but that was due to an extremely poor putting performance, which I believe to be an outlier. In his two rounds, the South Korean gained 1.86 strokes on approach and 1.44 strokes off the tee. He lost an absurd 7.02 strokes putting in his two rounds, which obviously hindered his ability to gain any momentum. For what it’s worth, five of the past 12 winners of the Sony Open had either missed the cut in their previous Sony appearance or had never played it.

Kim has won at Sedgefield Country Club which has plenty of similarities to Waialae. He gained over 12 strokes putting and knows how to go low on a scoreable course to get a win. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in the field in strokes-gained approach.

After going winless last season, Kim will look to take advantage of a Scottie-less field to get in the win column early in 2025.

Russell Henley +2200 (DraftKings)

Russell Henley checks all the boxes for Waialae Country Club. He won in 2013 and has been close on multiple occasions since. Most recently, the 35-year-old has finished in the top 11 in three of his past four trips to Waialae, including a playoff loss to Hideki Matsuyama in 2022 and a T4 last year. Henley ranks first in strokes-gained per round at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Over his past 24 rounds, Henley ranks first in my comparable course rankings and first in strokes-gained total in the wind. He’s also gained strokes putting in four consecutive trips to the golf course.

Last season, Henley finished fourth in the FedEx Cup standings and had a career-best seven top-10 finishes during the season. The former Georgia Bulldog had one of the best years of his career in 2024 despite not winning. Last week, he finished T30 at the Sentry, but I believe just the fact that he was able to play in Hawaii and shake off the rust is a positive development for his chances this week.

Henley ranks first in the model and has all the proper tools to win at Waialae for a second time in his career.

Luke Clanton +4000 (DraftKings)

I sincerely believe that Luke Clanton, despite not having earned his PGA Tour card yet, is amongst the most talented players on the planet. Albeit in a short sample size, the Florida State University junior has displayed impeccable ball striking statistics that rival some of the best players on the PGA Tour.

Throughout his first handful of starts on Tour, Clanton has shown that he really enjoys a short golf course. He finished fifth at Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) and second at Sea Island (RSM Classic), which are two comparable courses to Waialae. He’s also putted very well on Bermudagrass, gaining .5 strokes per round.

Clanton is three accelerated points away from earning his PGA Tour card, and with the new rules in place, a top-10 finish will earn him one point and a top-5 finish will earn him two. With a win, Clanton will be able to turn professional immediately.

Daniel Berger +7500 (FanDuel)

In terms of value, this may be my favorite play on the board. Last season was an important one for the 31-year-old as he was able to play a full season for the first time since 2022, fully recovered from a back injury. Berger finished the season strong, finishing T2 at the RSM Classic in late November.

Berger has played at Waialae six times and has finished in the top 15 in three of those starts. In his most recent start at the course (2021), he finished T7 and registered four rounds of 68 or better.

The Florida native is a strong course fit for Waialae. In his past 24 rounds, Berger ranks first in good drive percentage, which is important for a track that rewards accuracy. He also ranks 13th in course history.

In terms of class, Berger is one of the better players in the field. If he can build on his bounce back season in 2024, he may produce a win early in his 2025 campaign.

Michael Thorbjornsen +6500 (DraftKings)

I was extremely high on Michael Thorbjornsen’s ability to make an immediate impact on Tour last season. While he didn’t get off to the start he’d hoped for, he flashed his tantalizing talent towards the end of the season.

This fall, the Stanford product finished T8 in two of his final three starts, with one of them coming at the RSM Classic. Thorbjornsen has the tools to be elite off the tee and he has a reasonably developed short game, where he ranks 13th in the field over his past 24 rounds.

The PGA Tour has need for some young stars to emerge, and the 23-year-old has the look, swing and game to deliver just that.

Frankie Capan III +25000 (FanDuel)

Frankie Capan III is a new player to the PGA Tour that I’m high on for 2025. The 25-year-old won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2024, earning his way on to the PGA Tour for the season.

Contrary to many of the new young players on Tour, Capan has a very refined short game. He ranks sixth in the field in strokes-gained short game and unlike players like Clanton and Thorbjornsen, gets it done primarily with his chipping and putting. Although inconsistent driving accuracy may plague Capan III at Waialae, we’ve seen players conquer the course with a strong performance on and around the greens.

For a new player, Capan III is relatively seasoned, notching more than 30 starts on the Korn Ferry Tour. In addition to his win at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship, he had two runner-up finishes as well as record-setting round of 58 at the Veritex Bank Championship. Frankie has shown he has what it takes to go low and that may be what is required this week at the Sony Open.

Aldrich Potgieter +25000 (FanDuel)

Waialae is not the ideal setup for Aldrich Potgieter on paper. However, at extremely long odds, I simply cannot ignore his talent and potential ceiling as a PGA Tour player.

Potgieter has the power off the tee to tear a golf course apart. Although he can get a bit inaccurate at times, when he is on with the driver, he can put on a show. At just 20 years old, the South African has a lot to refine in terms of his short game, but has the ability to hit enough greens in regulation to overcome that deficiency.

Potgieter grew up playing in both South Africa and Australia and is no stranger to wind or playing on the coast. He got himself into contention on the DP World Tour this fall and therefore may be a bit more comfortable if he finds himself in a similar position early in his PGA Tour career.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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