Butterfield Bermuda Championship Betting Preview: A Redemption Story at Port Royal

The second-to-last event of the PGA Tour's fall season has arrived. Here's who to watch and where to place your bets.

Jul 6, 2024; Silvis, Illinois, USA; Ben Griffin reacts after playing a shot from the fairway on the 18th hole during the third round of the John Deere Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Cress-Imagn Images / Joseph Cress-Imagn Images

The PGA TOUR heads to Southampton, Bermuda, this week for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course.

It's a 6,828-yard, par-71 featuring Bermudagrass greens and designed by Robert Trent Jones. It's the sixth edition of the tournament and it will serve as the penultimate event for the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Fall. 

The Bermuda Championship field lacks star power but it will be an important week for many players looking to stay in the top 125 and keep full status for 2025. Some notable players in the field include Seamus Power, Mackenzie Hughes, Seamus Power and Lucas Glover. 

Recent Winners at The Bermuda Championship

• 2023: Camilo Villegas (-24)
• 2022: Seamus Power (-19)
• 2021: Lucas Herbert (-15)
• 2020: Brian Gay (-15)
• 2019: Brendon Todd (-24)

Let's take a look at several metrics for Port Royal Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Players who have been dialed in with their approaches tend to stay consistent throughout the fall swing. Approach is a great way to measure current form. 

Total Strokes Gained: Approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Lucas Glover (+1.14)
2. Doug Ghim (+0.87)
3. Nick Hardy (+0.82)
4. Austin Smotherman (+0.77) 
5. Ben Kohles (+0.63)

Good Drive Percentage

The rough at Port Royal Golf Club can actually be quite unforgiving, so it will be important to target accurate golfers. As evidenced by most of the players who have won here, distance off the tee won't be much of a factor.

Good Drive Percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Greyson Sigg (89.6%)
2. Nick Hardy (89.6%) 
3. Chez Reavie (89.3%)
4. Scott Piercy (88.6%))
5. Matthias Schmid (88.0%)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass

This week could turn into a putting contest. If the majority of the field is hitting greens in regulation, it might come down to whoever can heat up with the putter. Bermudagrass specialists will have the best chance to do just that at Port Royal.

Total Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) over past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Montgomery (+0.94)
2. Jacob Bridgeman (+0.76) 
3. David Skinns (+0.75)
4. Brendon Todd (+0.68)
5. Justin Suh (+0.65)

Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions

It's early, but it appears that it could be a gusty week in Bermuda. Players who are comfortable playing in the wind should have a real advantage.

Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions over past 30 rounds: 

1. Ben Griffin (+1.11)
2. Maverick McNealy (+0.99
3. Jhonnatan Vegas (+0.98)
4. Kevin Tway (+0.93)
5. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.85)

Strokes Gained: Short Game

The first five editions of the tournament have been won by players who have some of the best short games on Tour. An added emphasis on who's the best around the green and putting should help narrow down the player pool.

Total Strokes Gained: Short Game over past 24 rounds:

1. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.62)
2. Vincent Whaley (+1.42)
3. Taylor Montgomery (+1.07)
4. Brendon Todd (+1.03)
5. Jacob Bridgeman (+0.89)

Course History

Strokes Gained: Total at Port Royal will help determine who’s played the best at this golf course over their past 16 rounds. 

Course History over past 16 rounds (minimum 8 rounds):

1. Brendon Todd (+2.23)
2. Justin Lower (+1.91)
3. Kevin Yu (+1.90)
4. Ben Griffin (+1.80)
5. Daniel Berger (+1.77)

Statistical Model

Here are my overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of: SG: App (25%); Good Drive Percentage (22%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass (15%); SG: Windy Conditions (13%), SG: Short Game (15%), and Course History (13%). 

1. Ben Griffin
2. Justin Lower
3. Seamus Power
4. Maverick McNealy
5. Andrew Putnam 
6. Matthias Schmid
7. Roger Sloan
8. Henrik Norlander
9. Scott Piercy
10. Seung-Yul Noh

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Picks

Mackenzie Hughes +1600 (DraftKings):

Hughes has had a strong fall thus far despite not playing in many events. The Canadian finished T4 at the Procore Championship in September and T8 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October. He also participated in the Presidents Cup but notched only one point for the losing International side.

When brainstorming players on Tour who do their damage around the greens and with the putter, Hughes is one of the players that first comes to mind. He hasn't played at Port Royal yet, but the 33-year-old has had a great deal of success at similar courses on Tour.

In his two starts this fall, Hughes has gained 5.84 strokes on approach at the Procore and 3.24 strokes on approach at the Sanderson Farms. For a player who's gained strokes with the putter in 16 of his past 17 events, that should be plenty good enough.

Over his past 30 rounds in windy conditions, Hughes ranks 5th in this field in Strokes Gained: Total. He also ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Short Game. The ability to fall back on an elite short game if things get dicey down the stretch is a major advantage.

Hughes currently has two wins on the PGA Tour but is talented enough to notch a third on the right golf course, and Port Royal should certainly apply.

Ben Griffin +2000 (DraftKings):

Over the past few years, Griffin has slowly but surely grown into an incredibly consistent PGA Tour player. He's made a name for himself as player who shows up reliably on shorter tracks that require players to hit fairways and putt well.

Port Royal is a perfect fit for Griffin. Therefore, it's not surprise that he was in position to win his first PGA Tour event here back in 2022 before having an unfortunate collapse down the stretch. He had a two-shot lead on the back-nine before errant tee shots and missed short putts led to his undoing.

Over his past 30 rounds in windy conditions, Griffin leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total. His experience in the wind should help him remain comfortable if things get tough this week.

Since Griffin's strong performance here in 2022, the 28-year-old has built up some valuable scar tissue and should be equipped to deal with the stress if he gets another chance to earn his first PGA Tour victory.

Jacob Bridgeman +4500 (FanDuel):

The early returns on Bridgeman's career thus far would indicate that he's a player who thrives on shorter golf courses where great putters rise to the top.

Over his past 24 rounds, Bridgeman ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermudagrass. He has gained strokes putting in 14 of his 20 measured starts this season, and racked up eight top 25 finishes in part due to his ability to putt well consistently.

Last week, Bridgeman continued his successful season by finishing T14 at the World Wide Technology Championship. In this week's field, he ranks second over his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Putting and fifth in Strokes Gained: Short Game.

At an event where great putters typically thrive, Bridgeman may be the best putter in the field this week.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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