Fact or Fiction: Rory McIlroy (Not Scottie Scheffler) Should Be the Masters Favorite

The SI Golf staff debates the man to beat at Augusta, what the commissioner said at the Players and how much relief is too much when you hit it in the rough but end up in the fairway.

Was Rory McIlroy beating Scottie Scheffler (right) at the Players a sign of things to come at Augusta? / Doug Engle/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Welcome back to SI Golf’s Fact or Fiction, where we’ll take the ribeye, thank you.

Once again, we’re here to debate a series of statements for writers and editors to declare as “Fact” or “Fiction” along with a brief explanation. Responses may also (occasionally) be “Neutral” since there's a lot of gray area in golf.

Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on the SI Golf X account.

Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite for the Masters but Rory McIlroy stands as the man to beat at Augusta with two wins already this season including the Players. 

Bob Harig: FICTION. Rory is playing great—it’ll be the first time he goes to Augusta having won twice on the PGA Tour before the Masters. But the place has given him fits and he’s really not contended much since he was the 54-hole leader in 2011. The weight of the career Grand Slam is real and the challenge remains immense.

Jeff Ritter: FACT. All aboard the Augusta hype train. Rory’s vexed history at Augusta is well-documented, and I’m not saying this is the year he finally wins a jacket, but we can’t underplay the fact that McIlroy’s now won twice this year. Meanwhile, top-ranked Scottie Scheffler is winless and No. 3 Xander Schauffele looks rusty after recently returning from injury. McIlroy should ride into Augusta with momentum.

John Pluym: FICTION. I’m not ready to get aboard the Rory hype train. Sorry, Jeff. Until McIlroy proves that he can handle the pressure at Augusta, as well as other major tournaments, it’s hard to bet against Scottie Scheffler. Yes, Rory has two wins in four starts. Maybe the most impressive thing about his Players win is that he made a four-foot putt to extend the tournament to a playoff. If he wins at Augusta, I’ll change my mind.

John Schwarb: FICTION. If we were talking about the PGA and Quail Hollow, where Rory has won four times, I’d have a different answer. But the Augusta National scar tissue has to be factored in as much as form and I’ll still ride with the guy who has won there twice in the last three years. 

PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan says negotiations continue with LIV Golf and the goal is to “integrate” the league into the PGA Tour. There will be some kind of team golf on the 2026 Tour schedule. 

Bob Harig: FICTION. There remain serious questions as to whether there will be a deal at all. And if there is, it does seem that team golf is one of the sticking points in the talks. Can it happen down the road? It seems imperative from the PIF point of view. Next year? Seems doubtful.

John Pluym: FICTION. Agree with Bob. First, there has to be a deal. And though President Trump, the master dealmaker, tried to step in and get one done at the White House, we’re still waiting. I just don’t see it happening in the near future.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. Other than the already-established two-man Zurich Classic, I don’t think the PGA Tour and LIV are going to come together in such a way that new team events land on the schedule. The two sides still seem far apart.

John Schwarb: FICTION. Not ruling out team play someday on the PGA Tour—TGL, though a completely different entity, is giving team play a good name and the Tour has to be paying attention given that it has a stake. But at the rate these negotiations are going it’s impossible to envision anything new in 2026.

Monahan also announced increased efforts to fight slow play including publicizing pace-of-play data. He stopped short of specifically saying slow players would be named, but that’s the only way to fight what many perceive to be a plague on Tour.

Bob Harig: FACT. It’s not the only way, but for the purposes of this question, it is absolutely a start. Players are fined for slow play violations. Name them. It will only serve to heighten awareness. And that type of pressure is bound to help.

John Pluym: FACT. In 2023, baseball introduced a pitch clock, and if pitchers don’t get the ball out between 15 and 20 seconds between pitches (more time is allowed with runners on base), they’re penalized with a called ball. So, could golf do something similar? Why not? How cool would it be to have shot clocks on every hole of a golf course? If you really want to solve the issue, a one-stroke penalty might be the way to get it done. And, of course, taking prize money away might do it as well.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. Naming slow players would help, but most fans who follow it already know the worst offenders. The best way to fight slow play is to hit guys where it hurts: the wallet. 

John Schwarb: FACT. The Tour is a player-run league now and while some say they’re good with names getting out, I’ll still believe it when I see it and Monahan very much tiptoed around it. I believe the first wave of data released will be times without names, leaving fans and media to figure out the guilty parties. 

J.J. Spaun used the Rules of Golf to his advantage Sunday at TPC Sawgrass, taking relief from two sprinkler heads to move from long rough to a fairway lie. But future revisions to the rules should disallow such relocations from one height of grass to another.

Bob Harig: FICTION. The rules so often hurt players. We talk often about the “unfairness” of some of them. This is a rule meant to help. He had every reason to advantage of the situation. It was smart of him to do so.

John Pluym: FACT. I’m going to argue against my colleagues here. If you hit a bad shot, you should have to deal with the consequences of it, not get rewarded for it due to getting relief from two sprinkler heads. There’s no way he should have been able to move his ball from the rough to a fairway lie. Plain and simple. 

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. It’s probably reasonable to say a player has to stay in “rough” or “fairway” but if we start litigating grass height I think the rules would get murkier than they already are. Regarding Spaun, I actually think Phil is correct here.

This is why knowing the rules is important. They are there to help you. https://t.co/i3bXzwpNPV

— Phil Mickelson (@PhilMickelson) March 17, 2025

John Schwarb: FACT. I don’t think the grass-height distinction is difficult as the Rules define “closely mown areas.” Nothing against what Spaun did under the letter of the law as it exists now, but that really failed the eye test. If you hit it in the rough, after any necessary relief you need to still be in the rough.