Fact or Fiction: Scottie Scheffler Will Breeze to a Gold Medal in Paris

The bookmakers are all over Scheffler this week at the Olympics. Is this his gold medal to lose? The SI Golf crew weighs in.

Scottie Scheffler enters the Olympics as the top player in the world. / Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Welcome back to SI Golf’s Fact or Fiction, where we've watched about 13 hours of Olympic rugby coverage and still can't figure out the sport.

Once again, we’re here to debate a series of statements for writers and editors to declare as “Fact” or “Fiction” along with a brief explanation. Responses may also (occasionally) be “Neutral” since there's a lot of gray area in golf.

Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on the SI Golf X account.

Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to claim Olympic gold according to the bookmakers and also SI’s pick to win. They’ll be proven correct this week at Le Golf National. 

Bob Harig: FICTION. There are too many good players with too much motivation to simply pencil Scheffler in as the winner right now. We’ll get a better idea of how much the Olympics means to him soon enough but this won’t be an automatic win for Scheffler, who has some putting issues to straighten out after a tough performance at Royal Troon.

John Pluym: FICTION. Xander Schauffele is the Champion Golfer of the Year and riding high after his victory at Royal Troon (sounds like he had a little too much beer and wine out of the Claret Jug). He’s the hottest player in the world, so I think he should be the favorite and not Scheffler.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. It’s not a deep field, but you’ve still got most of the top 40-ish players in action, including Schauffele, who is obviously at the height of his powers. Scheffler may win it, but these four rounds won’t be a simple coronation.

John Schwarb: FACT. Xander Schauffele is the toast of the sport right now but Scheffler is still the world No. 1 and against this short field, on a course that Travelin’ Joe Passov wrote “resembles a brawnier TPC Sawgrass,” I think he gets back to winning and sets up the FedEx Cup playoffs that will decide PGA Tour Player of the Year. 

On the women’s side, Nelly Korda is the favorite to claim Olympic gold according to the bookmakers and SI’s prognosticator. They’ll be proven correct this week at Le Golf National. 

Bob Harig: FICTION. Too many variables, too many good players to expect one golfer to automatically get it done. Korda has cooled considerably since her early-season run of success and she undoubtedly has great motivation to repeat.

John Pluym: FACT. Unlike my colleagues, I’m going with Nelly. Yes, she’s struggled a bit since the early part of the season but winning back-to-back golds should be enough motivation for her to find her game.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. Like Scheffler, Nelly has been awesome this year, but anything can happen over four rounds. I’d love to see her repeat, but if we’re just playing the odds here, you have to take the rest of the field.

John Schwarb: FICTION. A cooling-off period was to be expected after her run of six wins in seven events, but three missed cuts and a T26 since the last win is a little too frigid to take her as chalk here. 

Men’s golf comes first this week in Paris followed by the women next week. The best way to build more interest around the sport in the Games would be for both to play at the same time. 

Bob Harig: FACT. It would be a cool idea to have the two tournaments run concurrently, perhaps with alternating groups of men and women. That might cause some logistical problems as you are doubling the number of players on the course and trying to get 120 around a venue which can make for some very early and late tee times. Clearly a course like Le Golf National has handled more players for European Tour events. The idea is certainly worth exploring. And is having come sort of combined men’s-women’s team competition that counts two or more scores.

John Pluym: FACT. I’d love to see both play at the same time. In fact, how cool would it be to have a PGA-LPGA tour event with both men and women competing on the same course? A combined men’s and women’s U.S. Open? And the Olympics would be the perfect place to experiment with such a format. 

Jeff Ritter: FACT. Harig touched on it, and I think it’s the key to fully unlocking Olympic golf: They should create a team event that runs parallel to the individual competition. Say, for instance, that Scottie and Nelly, as the U.S. top seeds, also used their combined scores for a team event, and a chance at another medal. You’d see them out there pulling for each other, fans would eat it up, and it would just be a great scene that’s fantastic for the game.

John Schwarb: FACT. Pro tours host 120 players on one golf course every week (the DP World Tour even has a mixed event with one leaderboard), so logistics pose little problem. Olympic golf should be a “meet” just like track, gymnastics and swimming, and once all the players are together then the competition formats can be changed. 

Jon Rahm, LIV Golf’s biggest offseason signee coming into this season, finally won Sunday in the U.K. He’s second in points behind Joaquin Niemann with one regular event and LIV Golf’s individual championship remaining, and anything less than the season title would make his 2024 a failure.

Bob Harig: FACT. This answer might be different had Rahm fared better in the major championships. But his lone bright spot—at tie for seventh at the British Open—was greatly overshadowed by a lackluster Masters defense, a missed cut at the PGA and then the withdrawal at the U.S. Open. He’s been a strong performer with LIV as evidenced by the fact that he’s in contention despite a single win. But for a player of Rahm’s stature and all the attention his signing brought, it’s going to feel hollow if he doesn’t win the overall title.

John Pluym: FACT. Rahmbo got paid $300 million to jump to LIV. Anything less than the overall title is a failure, especially after his lackluster performances in the majors. 

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. A LIV title can’t rescue this one: His season is already a dud because he essentially laid an egg at the majors.

John Schwarb: FACT. It’s a failure all around—for the former world No. 1 and for LIV Golf. Who knows what the future of the Saudi-backed league is, but its big-money stars have to shine brighter and Rahm piling up top 10s isn’t part of the equation..