2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Latest Betting Odds, Favorites and Sleeper Picks for Bay Hill

Many big names return to Bay Hill, but we like a few guys who remain under the radar.

The Champion Course is dark and full of terrors.

If you were to tell Daniel Berger that after his third-round last week, he would not have believed you. However, Berger learned the hard way on Sunday when he blew a five-shot lead in the final round to allow Shane Lowry, Sepp Straka and Kurt Kitayama back into the mix. It was neck-and-neck down the stretch, but it was Straka who outlasted his peers to bring home the first PGA Tour win for Austria during a final hole downpour.

As for the picks, we thought they’d be back in a big way with favorite Berger seemingly on his way to victory. Instead, we settle for fourth and a T-9 from mid-range pick Keith Mitchell while sleeper Ryan Palmer stumbled on the weekend.

This week, we drive north to continue the Florida Swing just outside Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Like PGA National, Bay Hill is no cake walk. Bryson DeChambeau, who withdrew from the API, was just 11-under-par in winning last year. Only Rory McIlroy’s 18-under performance in 2018 has been the outlier on Palmer’s layout and prior to that, Tiger Woods owned this place. Bay Hill is known for gnarly rough and speedy greens, so competitors will need to show their best tee-to-green game to win.

According to SI Sportsbook, the clear favorite is world No. 1 Jon Rahm +800. To follow is previously mentioned 2018 champion McIlroy at +1000. Next is young Norwegian star Viktor Hovland at +1400 and after him is recent WM Phoenix Open winner Scottie Scheffler at +1600. Reigning Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama is at +2000.

For our favorite, we’re going to take Scheffler at +1600. Many first-time winners on the PGA Tour have a bit of a hangover after but Scheffler followed his win with a top-10 at Riviera and finished T-15 at the API two years ago. Scheffler’s game should translate well once again to begin his Florida Swing.

For a mid-range pick, Jason Kokrak looks solid at +4000. Is there a more “sneaky good” player on Tour right now? With three wins since the fall of 2020, we do not think so. He’s made six straight cuts, including his win at the Houston Open and now arrives at Bay Hill where he’s had three straight top-20 finishes. In 2014 and 2015, he finished in the top-6 each time, as well. Kokrak can struggle sometimes around the green, but Bay Hill does not penalize those inefficiencies as many other Tour stops. Look for this week to set up well for a guy who’s on top of his game.

For a sleeper, we’re looking at Lanto Griffin at +8000. Another “under the radar” player this season, Griffin has finished in the top-40 in each of his last five starts, including a third-place at the American Express. Per DataGolf, he’s been the 13th best player on Tour this season from tee-to-green. While his putting has been average, his strengths could translate into another weekend of contending. This will be his third start at Bay Hill with previous finishes of T-21 and T-36. Griffin’s form and ability to keep it in the fairway point to contending on the weekend.

2021-22 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 1
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 2
Top 20s: 1

Here are some notable odds, according to SI Sportsbook:

Jon Rahm +800
Rory McIlroy +1000
Viktor Hovland +1400
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Sungjae Im +2500
Will Zalatoris +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Tyrrell Hatton +3000
Marc Leishman +3300
Adam Scott +3300
Paul Casey +3500
Keith Mitchell +3500
Jason Kokrak +4000
Max Homa +4000
Sam Burns +4500
Sergio Garcia +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Talor Gooch +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Jason Day +5500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Cameron Tringale +5500
Corey Conners +6000
Justin Rose +6000
Chris Kirk +6600
Luke List +6600
Cameron Young +6600
Seamus Power +6600
Erik Van Rooyen +7000
Lanto Griffin +8000
Tom Hoge +8000
Kevin Na +8000
Thomas Pieters +8000
Si-Woo Kim +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Carlos Ortiz +10000
Patrick Reed +10000
Matthew Wolff +10000
Sebastian Munoz +10000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Lee Westwood +10000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000
Troy Merritt +12500
Sam Ryder +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Lee Hodges +12500
Rickie Fowler +12500
Denny McCarthy +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Taylor Moore +12500
Garrick Higgo +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Aaron Wise +12500
Adam Svensson +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Aaron Rai +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
Takumi Kanaya +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Cam Davis +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Dylan Frittelli +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Charles Howell +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
Beau Hossler +15000