2021 U.S. Open Bettors' Roundtable: Favorites, Sleepers, Best Bets for Torrey Pines

Phil Mickelson is riding high after his stunning win at the PGA, but does he have a real shot at Torrey? Brooks Koepka and Jon Rahm are among the players who look dangerous. Plus, under-the-radar picks from our gambling experts.

This week the USGA returns to Torrey Pines for the 121st playing of the U.S. Open. The event was last staged at Torrey in 2008, and that edition was, shall we say, memorable. To kick off the week, we’ve assembled a panel of golf and gaming experts to handicap the field – and Torrey’s status among the rest of the U.S. Open rota. Joining this edition: Rotowire’s Len Hochberg and Greg Vara, Buffalo Groupe’s Dan Wooters, and Morning Read contributors Mike Purkey and Gary Van Sickle. On to the questions:

Phil Mickelson enters this week fresh off a shocking victory at the PGA Championship. Should Mickelson, who will turn 51 on Wednesday, be considered a serious threat to win this Open and finally complete the career Grand Slam?

Vara: Short answer is no, but then again, I thought the same thing heading into the PGA Championship. There are a couple things working against him here though: first, there's the mental block of trying to accomplish something he hasn't been able to do even while in his prime, win the U.S. Open. And second, Mickelson gave everything he had at the PGA, and if he were younger, he might be able to recover, but I don't think he has it in him any longer.

Purkey: Leading up to the tournament, no one gave a passing thought to Mickelson even possibly contending at the PGA Championship. So, why should we think it’s at all realistic that he could win the U.S. Open? Because he’s Phil Mickelson. If nothing else, he will the most watched – until he misses the cut on Friday afternoon.

Van Sickle: Mickelson follows a familiar pattern. If you consider him a serious threat to win, even a favorite, he'll dash your hopes like the 1990s Cubs. If you dismiss his chances and say he's done, he may well win. He's like the kid who does the opposite of what the parents want. My gut says his dislike of all things Rees Jones -- the man who redesigned Torrey Pines South -- is a burr in his saddle that he just won't be able to overlook, and he'll be a non-factor. But for the sake of our entertainment value, I'll take one for the team and say ... oh yes, this could finally be the Open for Phil.

Wooters: I do not believe so. While what he did at Kiawah was incredible and Torrey Pines is certainly a home game for him, the U.S. Open is just a different beast. The course setup will be much more penal and Mickelson will not be able to use his years of knowledge to battle unprecedented weather conditions. Phil could certainly make the cut, but I’d be shocked if he contended again.

Hochberg: As I'm sure you'll recall, I picked Phil to win the PGA -- er, I mean, actually, I did think he would make the cut, and I think that's the case at every major he's in. At least until he's 60. There's a lot to be said for major experience, which is every bit as valuable, if not more so, than physical ability in these four tournaments. No, I don't think Mickelson can win. A U.S. Open will be the toughest for him of the four -- it usually has the tightest fairways. But top-25? Maybe.

Torrey Pines has produced some epic moments during its annual PGA Tour stop, and the only previous U.S. Open there, in 2008, also lives in history, courtesy of Tiger Woods. Is this the greatest U.S. Open venue among the USGA’s rota? If not, what is?

Purkey: Torrey Pines has to stand in line at the very least behind Pebble Beach, Pinehurst No. 2 and Oakmont CC. However, the best Open test is Shinnecock Hills. When the conditions are stern but fair, Shinnecock is the most underrated great course in the U.S.

Vara: I love Torrey Pines, but I'm still a sucker for Pebble Beach. I really like all the popular courses in the major rotations.

Van Sickle: Tiger could win the Open at any venue in his prime. Does it say anything about Torrey that Rocco Mediate tied him? I'm not voting Torrey Pines the USGA's greatest venue after one Open. Tiger provided the epic moments, not Torrey. Winged Foot is tough to beat, considering Bryson DeChambeau’s win there last fall, Phil's "such an idiot" tragi-comedy from 2006, Fuzzy Zoeller and his white towel in ’84, and Bobby Jones’ win in ’29. But Oakmont tops it. Dustin Johnson and the is-it-or-isn't-it-a-penalty; Ernie Els beating Monty and Loren Roberts in a playoff in 1994; Larry Nelson stunning Tom Watson in a Monday-morning finish in ‘83; Johnny Miller's 63 that denied, among others, Arnold Palmer; the Jack vs. Arnie playoff in '62; and Hogan in '53. That's an epic Open venue.

Wooters: Torrey Pines certainly offered us what I believe to be the greatest win in golf history and maybe sports history. Winning the U.S. Open with two fractures and a torn ACL in your left knee and doing so through an extra 18 holes during a Monday playoff is truly mind-boggling. However, the more-visited track by the USGA up the California coast, Pebble Beach, is probably the best. It has it all: the postcard views, the history and the ability to test each club in the bag.

Hochberg: There's something to be said about the national championship being contested on a public course. It just seems right. But as a golf observer, I do look forward to seeing courses in majors that we don't see every year; it adds gravitas to the important tournaments. For me, the aura and history of Shinnecock, which is the closest thing U.S. golf has to St. Andrews, is the star of the USGA rota. It dates to the 1800s, has played host to U.S. Opens across three centuries, is brutally hard, has magnificent vistas AND allowed women in from the very start.

Which sleeper, odds 50-1 or longer, might surprise this week?

Van Sickle: Ryan Palmer seldom shows a finishing kick due to shakiness on short putts but he's twice been runner-up at the regular Torrey Pines PGA Tour stop. At 150-1, he's hard to ignore. Ditto Alex Noren, who fits the big-hitter profile of most top Torrey finishers. Noren was also runner-up there in 2018, as was Palmer, and he's also 150-1.

Wooters: You have heard this name from me before, but Abraham Ancer always shows up at majors. Not only that, he’s coming off five straight top-20 finishes, including T-8 at the PGA Championship. Look for him to contend once again for both his first Tour win and major title.

Hochberg: Justin Rose is 60-1, but it's hard for me to call him a sleeper or think he could surprise. He's won a U.S. Open, and he recently won the Farmers (2019). He finished top-10 at both majors earlier this year and led the Masters for a good chunk. He did miss the cut last year at Winged Foot, but he was third at the U.S. Open the year before and 10th the year before that. Like with Mickelson, major experience counts a whole lot here.

Purkey: Jason Kokrak (80-1) won the Charles Schwab Challenge three weeks ago at Colonial, one of the narrowest courses on the PGA Tour. And his last three appearances at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines were inside the top 30.

Vara: Corey Conners. I worry because he's like a less accomplished Xander Schauffele in that he's generally a trendy pick heading into a major, and he's yet to come through (like Schauffele). But you can't argue with his trajectory. Conners posted a top-10 at the Players, a top-10 at the Masters and top-20 at the PGA Championship. He's coming off a T53 at the Memorial, which isn't optimal, but he took a week off, which should act as a reset heading into the U.S. Open.

Which favorite, odds 30-1 or shorter, would you avoid in fantasy leagues and betting pools?

Purkey: Xander Schauffele (18-1) has a “keep off” sign on his back. In six appearances in the Farmers, he has four missed cuts, plus a T25 and a T2, back in January. You could argue the runner-up finish is a good sign. I wouldn’t.

Wooters: He is near the very top, but I cannot trust Justin Thomas right now. He’s pretty solid in most strokes-gained categories, but ranks 122nd in putting. That simply will not get it done at a U.S. Open.

Vara: Rory McIlroy. I hate to pick on him -- after all, he did win not too long ago, but everything was set up for a good showing at the PGA Championship following that win and he fell flat. His major drought is beyond baffling at this point and you have to imagine that it's planted firmly in his head by now. This has nothing to do with his game -- his skills have not declined -- but the mental side, especially in the majors, seems to be an issue.

Hochberg: Dare I say, Jordan Spieth, who is 16-1? We all know how great he's been in 2021, and it's been so good for the game. He's missed only one cut in 2021 but that came at ... drumroll, please ... Torrey Pines. His best result in six Farmers was a mere tie for 19th. And even at the U.S. Open, he has only one top-15 in nine tries. Not to knock his 2015 Open win, but it will always be remembered more for who lost it and how than who won it. Most U.S. Open tracks are going to be very hard for Spieth to negotiate.

Van Sickle: Jon Rahm feels a little too obvious as the 9-1 favorite. He's never won a major and while he's highly motivated after the forced Memorial-COVID WD and no doubt very focused, and he's won at Torrey before. But I think the emotion of what he's been through gets in his way. Top 10? Yes. Win? I don't like those odds.

There can only be one, so who wins the 2021 U.S. Open, and why?

Hochberg: Because he just missed the cut at the Palmetto, that's why. Brooks Koepka continues to show that, when healthy, he can win any major, even after a missed cut, even after a lengthy absence. He just finished second to Phil at the PGA. He's gone 1-1-2 at his past three Opens. His last fully healthy year was 2019, when he went 1-2-2-4 in the majors. He now has an aura about him that, while nowhere near the old Tiger aura, is enough to scare just about any other golfer into submission. Phil might've been the one guy able to withstand it. Sorry, Bryson, Brooksie wins No. 5.

Wooters: Jon Rahm finally breaks through for his first major. He will use the frustration from Muirfield Village as fuel and continue his recent stellar play. Already a winner at Torrey Pines in 2017, Rahm will be relaxed and ready to contend.

Van Sickle: Collin Morikawa (22-1) has made a believer out of me. He's 24, already has four wins, including a major and a WGC title. Opens are won by hitting fairways and greens. Morikawa ranks 12th and 1st, respectively, in those categories, and his putting seems much improved. He's a California guy so he'll be at home on the grass. The man can strike his ball, which is what Opens are usually all about.

Purkey: If he can play with just enough of a chip on his shoulder to be useful and if he can manage to keep his emotions under control, Jon Rahm has everything it takes to win the Open, including a sense of purpose after the debacle at the Memorial. He’s also won at Torrey Pines, at the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open.

Vara: Jon Rahm. It's finally time. I've thought that his temperament would hold him back from winning a major, and that seemed to be the case up to this point, but I think he's matured enough and his game is definitely there. The way he lost a chance to win the Memorial should also serve as motivation. Factor in that no elite golfer, with the possible exception of DJ and maybe Spieth, are near the top of their game right now and it appears to be set up perfectly for Rahm this week.