2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Torrey Pines

The South Course at Torrey Pines is the most demanding on Tour so far in 2023, and our expert likes a winner with the total package.

Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.

A new week on the PGA Tour and another completely different set of challenges. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at the famed Torrey Pines facility. This 36-hole picturesque municipal landscape is one LONG test of golf. The major championship-hosting South Course stretches out to 7,765 yards. The scorecard reads par 72, but there are two par 5s over 600 yards, three par 3s over 200 yards and seven par 4s measuring over 450 yards.

The sister North Course is 507 yards shorter and still stretches over 7,200 yards. Less of a test, this course is the key to scoring when you play the Farmers. The average winning score over the last 10 years is 13 under par. Considering most winners accumulate about half of that total in one round on the North, keep a watchful eye on those players who score well there for in-play betting purposes.

• South Course (played three rounds)
• Par 72 measuring 7,765 yards on the scorecard
• Average green size is approximately 5,000 square feet
• Greens are Poa annua grass and the course has 82 bunkers
• 13 of 14 tee shots face a fairway bunker, and 12 of those holes have some movement off the tee.

• North Course (played one round)
• Par 72 measuring 507 yards less than its counterpart at 7,258
• Greens are bentgrass and a little bigger at 6,000 square feet (average).
• Par 3s on the North are all over 200 yards.
• 42 bunkers and no water penalty areas.
• Again, 12 holes bend off the tee, and 12 of 14 tee shots face a fairway bunker.

The field of 156 players will play one round on the North and South prior to the 36-hole cut on Wednesday and Thursday. Yes, Wednesday. For the second year in a row, the PGA Tour is starting the tournament one day earlier than usual, allowing for a finish in primetime Saturday rather than during the NFL conference championship games on Sunday.

The Top 65 and ties who make the cut will play the South Course on Friday and Saturday.

• Five of the top 10 players in the world are competing (click here for the full field)
• The purse is $8.7 million with a first-place check of $1.57 million
• Jon Rahm has two wins in two starts this season and is the betting favorite at +400 (4-1)
• He is currently 54 under par in 2023
• He has four career wins in California, two at Torrey Pines.

Considering this amazing setting alongside the cliffs of La Jolla overlooking the Pacific Ocean, we know weather can play a role in the outcome. Early predictions call for cooler temperatures to start the day in the mid-40s and reaching the mid-60s in the afternoon. The wind is predicted to blow in the mid-teens. It probably will get a little breezier right on the water, but as of now, nothing too penal.

The tournament forecast looks dry for the week, but California has been hit extremely hard by wet weather recently. According to the facility's director of agronomy, Devin Cullen, the courses are very soft and will play longer than usual. Since length was already a key to contend, let’s take a closer look at why power is essential at Torrey.

• Approximately 30% of the players' approach shots on the South Course are from over 200 yards.
• The greens are small on the South Course. The closer you can attack from in the fairway, the better your chances are to score.
• Both courses will have thick, luscious rough to contend with. Power from those lies will be important for advancing the ball close to the green.

The PGA Tour average for approach shots over 175 yards is 40%. Torrey’s South Course will ask you to handle a long iron more than 47% of the time. As a result, players only hit 62% of their greens in regulation. This is below tour average. Accuracy alone on approach isn’t the only key. Hitting fairways only happens 53% of the time. These consistent demands put a great deal of pressure on the short game and putting.

• All 10 winners from the last decade have gained strokes putting. On average they have gained 3.4 strokes against the field.
• The North Course has bentgrass greens, but the South where they will compete for three rounds has Poa annua greens. Specific players have more success on Poa than others. Our bets below reflect that ability.
• 8 of the last 10 winners have gained strokes around the green.
• The average cutline at the Farmers is 2 under par over the last decade.

Since the start of 2023, these guys have launched drives in paradise with wide fairways in Kapalua. They took advantage of short par-4 scoring in Honolulu. Last week, they attacked every scoring opportunity in Palm Springs. As you can see, Torrey is a different test. Thirty-five of the Top 50 players in the world want in to test themselves.

I bet we will fare better than them with this week’s Win, Place, and Show.

Xander Schauffele is from Southern California, but the reasons to bet him this week run much deeper than that :: Andy Abeyta/USA TODAY Network

Pick to Win: Xander Schauffele

Six of the last 10 winners at the Farmers have come in with odds under +2500 (25-1). Although I’m not ready for a single-bullet strategy on Rahm, I will lean heavily toward the top of the board on my betting card. Xander Schauffele (+1200 SI Sportsbook) has the well-rounded skill set needed to win at Torrey. Forget the familiarity being from Southern California, he comes in ranked first in the field in strokes-gained tee to green and approach. That amazing combination of power and accuracy is what Torrey demands. In 2021, Xander finished second at Farmers and seventh at the U.S. Open. Last week at the Amex, he closed with 62 and finished third. If anybody can compete with Rahm on this course, it is the X-man.

Last week's pick: Tony Finau finished T16 at The American Express, solid but six shots behind Rahm.

Place: Taylor Montgomery

In his last nine starts, Taylor Montgomery has finished outside the Top 15 once. He gained positive strokes off the tee, on approach and on the green last week in the desert. His ability to putt will separate him on a difficult course like Torrey Pines. Take Taylor to finish in the top 20 one more week at +130 on SI’s sportsbook.

Last week's pick: Si Woo Kim finished T22, agonizingly one shot out of the top 20.

Showdown: Spaun over Davis

This week’s showdown pick is J.J. Spaun (-110 at PointsBet) over Cam Davis (-125). Books have been favoring Davis since his showing at the Presidents Cup. He just missed the cut at the Amex and finished 32nd at the Sony Open. Spaun hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last four starts dating back to November. J.J. hits more fairways, is better at avoiding bogeys, and gains more GIRs, all skills that will differentiate him this week over Davis. 

Last week's pick: Jason Day (T18) cashed over Rickie Fowler (T54), keeping Keith unbeaten in showdowns.

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Jon Rahm +400

Tony Finau +1200

Xander Schauffele +1200

Collin Morikawa +1400

Justin Thomas +1400

Will Zalatoris +1600

Jason Day +2000

Max Homa +2000

Sungjae Im +2000

Taylor Montgomery +2500

Hideki Matsuyama +3000

Maverick McNealy +3000

Si Woo Kim +3300

Sahith Theegala +4000