2023 Scottish Open Betting Preview: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop

Our expert has his eyes on a previous major-winner to fare well this week at the Scottish Open, and he's also still doubting Justin Thomas.

The Genesis Scottish Open is hosted by a vanguard facility in North Berwick, Scotland. Situated on the coast of the Firth of Forth, the Tom Doak design has the look and feel of a links layout that has covered the landscape for the past 100 years. After all, their next-door neighbor is none other than the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers (Muirfield).

The Renaissance Club features a par 70 scorecard that stretches 7,237 yards. Each hole is a perfect match between land and eye. The 2023 edition will be the fifth straight year Renaissance has hosted Scotland’s Open championship. The combination DP World and PGA TOUR event hosts another tremendous field of players. Eight of the top 10 in the OWGR (30 of the top 50) are part of the 156-man field competing for $9 million dollars.

As the lead-up to the season’s final major championship, we all are paying extra attention to the favorites as they prepare for Royal Liverpool. That 7,200-yard course sounds medium sized but looks can be deceiving. With five par 3s, the par 70 layout hides its length in three long par 5s and seven par 4s over 440 yards. Looking back through the past four editions one shared skill amongst the winners is power.

Doak’s design makes TRC look as if it has hosted the Scottish National Championship for over 50 years. Don’t trust your eyes as the current Scottish Open venue was created by an American family. Jerry Sarvadi is the CEO and founder of the club. In speaking with Jerry before last year’s edition, it was amazing to hear him tell their story. If there ever was a beautiful blend between links style ground play and a target golf assault, this is it.

Picking a player with a powerful game isn’t the trick, but for a course that challenges your length, it is really the short shots that will determine our winner. Most handicappers will settle for strokes gained off the tee and long iron play. My PGA coaching eye forces me to dig deeper. Players hit five percent less than the Tour average of GIRs at TRC.

This fact causes their short game to get engaged. To exacerbate the inaccuracy on approach we expect a formidable forecast. Temperatures will read in the low 60s, but with the wind whipping off the Firth of Forth, real feel will be about 10 degrees cooler. Xander Schauffele’s win last year was during a drought. The course played extremely firm and fast. Wet weather is the norm now and we will see more of it as the tournament takes place.

Soft scoring conditions will only amplify the need for wedge play from close range. The Renaissance Club has rather large greens. Approach putting is another key to victory. That first putt counts and the closer each player gets, lower the chances of three putting. The three-putt percentage at TRC is high and well above PGA Tour average.

The Tour has a ton of powerful players. Length in no longer the best differentiating factor. To separate oneself from the field you will need to score with your short game in Scotland. Royal Liverpool will play similarly, so pay attention as TRC is an excellent precursor. Last week, our Win finished fourth, the Place won, and our Show failed to show up. As we cross the pond for two weeks, enjoy the early golf and watching the game played on the ground.

Here's my Win, Place, and Show for the Genesis Scottish Open.

Win: Matt Fitzpatrick

You can't say Matt Fitzpatrick is flying under the radar, but it seems like he is. He has a designated win and two top 20 finishes in the majors. Fitzpatrick also has two top 10s at TRC and "fits" the player mold. Matt is also ranked top 25 SG:T2G and incredible at bogey avoidance. Both skills will set up his top 10 ranked putting. With inclement weather in the forecast, I love a player who can get up and down from everywhere. His best edge comes on the par 3s where he's ranked sixth in the field for scoring. Take Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200 SI Sportsbook) to win the Genesis Scottish Open.

Place: Rasmus Hojgaard

Imagine having to beat your twin brother your entire career to succeed at the highest level. Rasmus Hojgaard finished last Sunday with a 64 en route to winning on the DP World Tour. Of the four Danes in the field Nicolai Rasmus is the toughest challenger to Rasmus. Rasmus has four DP victories to his resume, and considering his recent form, I believe his Ryder Cup push will have him continue to play inspired golf. Take Rasmus Hojgaard to finish Low Danish Player (+165 PointsBet).

Show: Justin Thomas

I’m not sure a change of scenery is the key to Justin Thomas changing his current form. JT has missed three of his last four cuts and is losing over two strokes to the field in his last five starts. Min Woo Lee won the Scottish Open at TRC in 2021. Fifth at the US Open a month ago and ninth at the Travelers watch him contend again this weekend. Take Min Woo Lee over Justin Thomas H2H (-120 Draftkings).

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Scottie Scheffler: +600

Rory McIlroy: +850

Patrick Cantlay: +1400

Rickie Fowler: +1600

Viktor Hovland: +1800

Jordan Spieth: +2200

Justin Thomas: +4000

Ludvig Aberg: +5000

Sahith Theegala: +8000

Alexander Bjork: +10000

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.