2023 Sony Open in Hawaii: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Waialae Country Club

The Bulldogs ruled in college football and our expert likes one of Georgia's golfers to win this week at a course that demands precision over power.

Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter. 

Nineteen of the 39 players who competed last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions have made the jump from Maui to Honolulu. Waialae Country Club has been home to the Sony Open since 1965. The unique Seth Raynor design looks like this.

• The course is a par-70 layout stretching 7,044 yards.
• The scorecard shows twelve par 4s, two par 5s and four par 3s.
• Sitting just 10 feet above sea level this classic design isn’t long, but with strategic doglegs and challenging fairway bunkers many players will leave driver in the bag most of the round.
• Located on the island of Honolulu, we expect great weather this weekend.
• Temperatures will range from 70 degrees at night to 80 during the day.
• Wind can be a big factor at Waialae, but not this week as very little is predicted. It looks calm and dry. There is also no rain in the forecast.

The Sony Open is our first full-field event of the new year with 144 players and the top 65 and ties playing on the weekend. Seven of the Top 25 players in the world are entered with headliners Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim leading the list of favorites.

• The average winning score over the last five years at the Sony is 19 under par. Increase the sample size to 10 years and the average jumps to 21 under par.
• The winners at Waialae are an eclectic bunch. Without many elite names, the average winning odds from the last decade are +5500 (55-1).
• Over the past 20-plus years, 70% of the Sony winners have played the Sentry the week prior.

The weather again is perfect for scoring. The target score looks like 20 under, but after reading the superintendent’s report I noticed an important detail. The rough height historically was 2.25 inches. This year they have let the Bermudagrass grow to 3 inches. Driving accuracy has always played a significant role at the Sony, this year it leads the list of skills needed to succeed.

• 10 of the 14 fairways have bunkers guarding them. 13 of the 14 have a dogleg. Four of those holes bend left to right and nine right to left. Hitting the fairway is a huge priority and will be a challenge with dry and fast conditions.
• Looking at the last decade, let’s examine the winners.
• All gained strokes on the green by an average of 7.4 strokes.
• Nine out of 10 gained on approach by an average of 4.6 strokes.
• Eight of the 10 gained around the green by an average of 1 stroke.

I’m looking for chess players who can putt this week; accurate ball strikers off the tee as well as from the fairway. The course is not long, so almost 75% of the approaches will come from 125-200 yards. Rough or no rough, it is probably a race to 20 under par. Ten of the holes have a birdie rate over 15%.

In the end, I believe it will come down to familiarity. Fifteen of the last 16 winners have prior experience playing the Sony. Wai’alae is the second most predictive course on the PGA Tour, behind No. 1 Augusta National. Speaking of predictions, here’s my weekly win, place, and show.

Brian Harman has a knack for performing on coastal courses and loves Bermuda greens :: Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports

Pick to Win: Brian Harman

In the last nine seasons, six of the Sony Open winners entered the week in the Top 10 of the FedEx Cup standings. Recent form counts, and Brian Harman (+1600) has been playing like a bulldog. He’s made 10 cuts in a row since the British Open and in that stretch finished with four top 10s. He’s ranked fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green and fifth in par-4 scoring. Those 12 par-4 holes will be crucial toward contending. His best putting surface is Bermuda and in the last three months he has two runner-up finishes on coastal tournament courses. Chalk up one more win for the state of Georgia this week.

Place: Tom Kim

Tom Kim is the last person since Tiger Woods to win twice on the PGA Tour prior to turning 21. The betting favorite this week, ranked 14th in the world and third in FedEx Cup points, I’ll take him to place top 10 (+140) on SI Sportsbook. The Presidents Cup star is ranked first in strokes gained tee-to-green, first in ball striking and second on approach. Tremendously talented, his best putting surface is Bermudagrass. You’ll be sure to collect again just like Finau finished top-10 for us last week at the Sentry.

Showdown: Spaun over Grillo

Everyone is talking about J.J. Spaun’s golf shirt style from the Sentry. Personally, I was very impressed by his play in finishing fifth. I found him on one sportsbook matched up against Emiliano Grillo. Spaun’s a much better par-4 player and he gained over three shots on the greens at Kapalua. Take Spaun over Grillo (-120) and untuck the golf shirt all you want while you cash in.

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Tom Kim +1100

Sungjae Im +1200

Jordan Spieth +1400

Brian Harman +1600

Hideki Matsuyama +1800

Russell Henley +2000

Corey Conners +2200

Tom Hoge +2200

Billy Horschel +3000

Cameron Davis +3300

Keegan Bradley +3300

K.H. Lee +3300

Maverick McNealy +3300

Adam Scott +3500

Keith Mitchell +3500

Taylor Montgomery +3500