2023 Zozo Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club

The PGA Tour takes its longest trip of the year and our expert prefers players in fall form over stars returning from layoffs.

The Zozo Championship presents a very interesting betting conundrum: does talent outshine current form? Tournament favorites Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa have not played a 72-hole stroke play event in 53 days. Five weeks off before the Ryder Cup did not serve them well. Will another two weeks away from competition be an even bigger challenge to get back into the swing of things?

The Zozo started a couple years ago with a bang! Tiger Woods won the inaugural 2019 edition and secured his Sam Snead-tying 82nd PGA Tour win. Fast-forward four years and our defending champion Keegan Bradley epitomizes what it takes to win at Narashino CC. This target-rich ball striker’s paradise rewards elite impact players. Straight flushers love this venue. The third player who won here is Hideki Matsuyama (the 2020 Zozo was contested at Sherwood CC).

The weather looks decent in Tokyo for the tournament. Temperatures start in the mid-70s in Round 1 and continue to get cooler as the days go on, ending in the mid-60s by Sunday afternoon. Of course, we will experience this tournament overnight so make sure you place all your pre-tournament bets by Wednesday evening. There is a front coming through during Round 2 that will drop those temps and bring some serious wind with gusts in the 25 mph range.

Rickie Fowler and 77 other players will compete in the no-cut Zozo Championship :: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

The week will be dry, which is a welcome forecast. Last year, Bradley won in cold and rainy conditions. The course should play perfectly with the cool, drier weather. Narashino CC is a par-70 layout covering 7,079 yards. Much shorter than an average PGA Tour course, there are five par-3s on the scorecard. The extra par-3 will shorten things significantly and place much more of an emphasis on your iron game.

Nearly 30% of the holes over four rounds will take one stroke to reach the green. Play those holes under par and you have a winning advantage. Attacking iron play isn’t the only key to contending. All 78 players in this limited field need to be accurate off the tee. Narashino CC is a tight driving test. Hit it long and in the fairway and there’s a considerable edge. Five of the 10 par-4s are over 485 yards. The closer you can get to the green, the easier the approach.

Conversely, the other five par-4s at Narashino are all under 425 yards. The stark contrast between both ranges really epitomizes the test. Elite hitters succeed at the Zozo, and this edition should play out the same way. This is primarily why coming off a long rest favors those in the field who have been competing. Each of the FedEx Cup Fall events to date have been shootouts. Take a round or two to get going in Tokyo and you’ll be behind for good. Those who have been playing can score immediately on the par-3s and 4s.

Their birdie-or-better percentage is proven and they can avoid bogeys. I feature a couple players in the field who have already racked up multiple top 20s since September. I like their ability to hit the ground running in Round 1 and separate themselves. I have run a report on who scores well on short and long par-4s. Narashino CC only has 73 bunkers and five holes with water in play. Avoiding those areas and playing from around the green is not reason enough for contending.

Ball striking takes center stage the next four rounds in Tokyo. My win, place and show is decorated with elite impact players. Enjoy the golf when you can this week. Once the Zozo hands out that iconic trophy early Sunday morning we won’t see the PGA Tour again for two weeks.

Win: Cameron Champ

Certain guys just love playing the fall schedule and Cameron Champ is one of them. Two of his three PGA Tour wins have come during this part of the season. In his last two starts, Champ has finished ninth at the Sanderson and 18th at the Shriners. Significant to the Shriners finish was his putting and short game, which have been gaining positively to go along with that elite driver. Cam finished eighth here last year and comes into this one with better form. Watch his driver take over and allow him to take home the trophy on Sunday. Take Cam Champ to win the Zozo Championship (+5000 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: Ludvig Aberg didn't come through for the win but soared up the leaderboard with a Sunday 62, finishing T13. He will cash win tickets on the PGA Tour soon enough.

Place: Adam Svensson

With three straight top-20 finishes and eight made cuts in a row, Adam Svensson has validated his first Tour win from last fall at the RSM Classic. Another excellent driver of the ball, Svensson has been just as accurate on approach. Ranked inside the top 10 of this field for par-3 and par-4 scoring, he can contend. Take Adam Svensson to finish Top 20 (+130 SI Sportsbook).

Last week's pick: Mark Hubbard failed to make the cut, never mind place in the top 20, after rounds of 75-65.

Showdown: Hideki Matsuyama over Sahith Theegala

Hideki Matsuyama leads the career strokes-gained list at Narashino CC. Playing in his home country obviously inspires a major championship effort. In three starts at the Zozo, he has a win and a runner-up finish. Sahith Theegala won last month at the Fortinet, but that venue doesn’t require superb accuracy off the tee. Theegala can spray it with his driver and that will lead to saving par rather than scoring birdies. Take Hideki Matsuyama over Sahith Theegala head-to-head (-110 BetMGM).

Last week's pick: Winner! Adam Svensson locked up the showdown on Friday night when Lucas Herbert missed the cut.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter. 

Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook

Xander Schauffele +700

Collin Morikawa +1100

Sungjae Im +1400

Hideki Matsuyama +1600

Min Woo Lee +1600

Rickie Fowler +1600

Sahith Theegala +1800

Cam Davis +2000

Keegan Bradley +2200

Adam Scott +2500

Eric Cole +2800

Adam Schenk +3500

Adam Svensson +4000

Alex Noren +4000

Beau Hossler +4000

J.J. Spaun +4000

Nicolai Hojgaard +4000

Aaron Rai +4500

Emiliano Grillo +4500

Thomas Detry +4500

Cameron Champ +5000

Vincent Norrman +5000