WGC Workday: Latest betting odds, favorites and sleeper picks

At 20-1 odds, Tony Finau is due to win, but Joaquin Niemann (40-1) and Louis Oosthuizen (60-1) offer plenty of value

Last week, we asked whether Jordan Spieth might be back. The jury still could be out despite a third consecutive solid showing, a T-15, from the three-time major champion. However, if one thing is for certain, the picks are definitely back and better than ever, especially when a 60-1 long shot comes through.

Max Homa brought the goods to Riviera, his favorite hometown course, and held off Tony Finau in a playoff to win the PGA Tour's Genesis Invitational. It was yet another crushingly close call for Finau, who cannot seem to close the door on Sundays. Homa made the most of his second chance after missing a short putt to win on the 72nd hole. Viktor Hovland also posted a T-5, and the steady Patrick Cantlay joined Spieth at T-15.

Now, we look to take the momentum built in California to the first World Golf Championships event of the year, at The Concession Golf Club in Bradenton, Fla. In non-pandemic times, the event is held in Mexico, but this year, we’re going to start the “Florida Swing” a bit earlier. Two things of note for bettors as we enter this week: Concession has not hosted a PGA Tour event, and this is an exclusive 72-man field with no cut, rather than a typical field of as many as 156.

According to William Hill, world No. 1 Dustin Johnson is the clear favorite again, at 13-2, after another solid performance last week. Next up is No. 2 Jon Rahm, at 10-1, after finishing T-5 at the Genesis Invitational. Despite a missed cut last week, Rory McIlroy was listed at 16-1, as was Xander Schauffele, who posted a steady T-15 result at Riviera. To close out the favorites, Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay were 18-1 selections, though Thomas missed the cut last week.

For our favorite, we are going to choose a guy just outside the notables again in Tony Finau at 20-1. His troubles finishing are well-noted, but the momentum he’s built recently is hard to ignore. He owns runner-up finishes in each of his last three worldwide starts and top-25s in 13 of his last 17. He’s just off a final-round 64 on one of the Tour’s hardest tracks, so his time is coming. If worried about his finishing, perhaps look into the top-10 market.

For a midrange pick, Joaquin Niemann offers tremendous value at 40-1. Niemann was in contention entering last weekend before a third-round 78 ended his chances at Riviera. However, he has made 11 straight cuts, with four top 10s. Niemann is fourth in scoring average on Tour, so look for him to continue his stellar play at Concession.

For a sleeper, Louis Oosthuizen at 60-1 looks solid. When entering a week of unknowns with a new course, it’s never a bad play to go with a steady guy with a track record of winning around the world. Oosthuizen fits those criteria, and he plays WGCs well. In these competitions, he has three top-six finishes in his last five starts and seven top-25s in his past eight.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 1
Top 10s: 4
Top 20s: 5
Misses: 10

Here are some notable odds, according to William Hill:

Dustin Johnson 13-2
Jon Rahm 10-1
Rory McIlroy 16-1
Xander Schauffele 16-1
Justin Thomas 18-1
Patrick Cantlay 18-1
Tyrrell Hatton 20-1
Tony Finau 20-1
Bryson DeChambeau 20-1
Viktor Hovland 22-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Patrick Reed 28-1
Daniel Berger 28-1
Webb Simpson 30-1
Sungjae Im 35-1
Collin Morikawa 35-1
Scottie Scheffler 40-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Joaquin Niemann 40-1
Adam Scott 50-1
Hideki Matsuyama 50-1
Max Homa 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Cameron Smith 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Justin Rose 60-1
Harris English 60-1
Will Zalatoris 60-1
Louis Oosthuizen 60-1
Victor Perez 70-1
Sergio Garcia 70-1
Ryan Palmer 80-1
Marc Leishman 80-1
Shane Lowry 80-1
Bubba Watson 80-1
Robert MacIntyre 80-1
Abraham Ancer 90-1
Jason Kokrak 90-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 90-1
Matthew Wolff 90-1
Carlos Ortiz 100-1
Kevin Kisner 100-1
Lee Westwood 100-1
Billy Horschel 100-1
Kevin Na 100-1

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