What To Watch In the Final Round at St. Andrews: Rory, the Closing Holes and More Birdies

This British Open isn't Rory McIlroy's to lose, but all signs point to him. Look for more low scores at the defenseless Old Course, though the Road Hole may have a say.

The British Open's final round is here. Here are a few things to look for …

Roars For Rors

The last 18 holes are all about Rory McIlroy. He’s from Northern Ireland, not Scotland, yet he is a beloved figure for a lot of reasons, including being a known name and a pretty normal, very nice guy. Also, he’s not an Englishman, so a Scot can get behind that.

McIlroy has looked like a man on a mission all week. The whole LIV Golf controversy is not his mission. Yes, he’s been critical of it and has become the point man among players for the PGA Tour position. But McIlroy’s mission is to get back to where he was, No. 1 in the world, the best player in the game, and cement his legacy as one of Europe’s greatest players. He lost his way on that trail, hasn’t won a major championship in eight years after piling up four in short order. Now he’s back, hitting it better and longer than ever. More important, his wedge play is greatly improved and he’s putting the best he’s ever putted, perhaps.

You can’t exactly call McIlroy the man to beat on Sunday because he’s tied for the lead with Norway’s Viktor Hovland. They’re in a dead heat and Hovland is a star of the future who, oh yeah, is already here. But consider three things about McIlroy’s week. One, he sank a 55-foot putt on the opening hole Thursday. An omen? Two, he poured in a 25-foot birdie putt late Friday evening at No. 17, the infamous Road Hole, which is the toughest hole on the golf course. Three, Saturday, he holed out for eagle on a lengthy shot from a pot bunker at No. 10. Those were all special shots, remarkable shots. Everything about this says it is Rory’s week … yet all those shots and he’s only tied for the lead.

If Not Rory, Then Who?

Norway’s greatest golfer is McIlroy’s greatest threat. Hovland doesn’t have a lot of experience being in contention in the final round of a major championship but if he was going to disappear into a deep fjord, he would have done it Saturday at the Old Course. Hovland has done some special things this week, too, including holing out a full shot from the rough for an eagle, and draining a pair of 40-footers on Saturday.

Rory still has an edge in distance and short game over Hovland.

Normally, four shots back doesn’t seem insurmountable. In this case, McIlroy is 16 under par through three rounds in a major. There are drivable par 4s and reachable par 5s — his par is probably legitimately only 68. If McIlroy simply shoots 68, he gets to 20 under and now the two Camerons at 12 under par — Australian Cameron Smith and Wake Forest alum Cameron Young, the first-round leader — have to shoot 64 just to keep up. Young and Smith each have already put up a 64 and Saturday, short-hitting Kevin Kisner fired a 65. So it’s possible. Likely? Probably not.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and former Players Championship champ Si Woo Kim are at 11 under, five back. Again, they’re going to need a Herculean effort to catch the leaders, probably 63 or 64. Everyone else falls into the Hail Mary Miracle category, unless both McIlroy and Hovland somehow back up. I don’t see it…

The Hole Truth

The Open will very likely be decided by three holes — the 15th, 16th and 17th. They have played hard and they come near the end of the round when the pressure will be at its peak. For the first three days, the field played those holes a combined 322 over. The rest of the course was played in 311 under par. That’s a preposterous stat that shows just how easy — OK, some would say obsolete — the Old Course has looked despite an unending series of tricked-up pin positions.

The Road Hole may have a say in the final round, but the gettable 18th (pictured with Rory McIlroy teeing off) still follows :: Michael Madrid/USA Today

The Road Hole has played the toughest. McIlroy bogeyed it Saturday, in fact. With the 18th hole morphing into the equivalent of a long par 3, the 17th could be where the drama happens. McIlroy banked an approach shot off the wall behind the road there Saturday, a good break versus the alternative, which would be the ball stymied against the wall. There is also the deep Road Hole bunker, which has its own camera, so you know it must be treacherous.

Whoever survives those three holes the best is going to be the winner. Whoever screws them up will rue the day …

One Million Under Par

So the winning score won’t go quite that low but I’d bet heavily that the Open’s record winner score of 20 under par (by Henrik Stenson) will be beaten. (In fact, gimme a second while I go to FanDuel and make that wager ... ) The Old Course, as clever as it is, looks too short for modern golf. Without heavy wind, it’s like watching a major championship at an executive course. That’s not going to change Sunday.

The forecast is for light winds reaching only as high as 10 mph, with temperatures into the 70s — yep, San Diego comes to Scotland. There’s an outside shot of a few showers very early Sunday morning, which would soften the course and make the greens even more receptive to scoring. If this Open championship gets out of town without any player shooting 61 or better, consider this a big win. One of these years, an outmoded Open course is going to give up a 58 on a quiet, wind-less week, and maybe then the governing bodies will respond and do something about the ball and the oversized driver heads …

Cashing In

The Open champion will get a check for $2.5 million (U.S. dollar equivalency). That’s notably short of the $4 million first prize offered in the first two LIV Golf outings. The Open winner will get two things the LIV Golf winners didn’t: The chance to hear himself introduced at the award ceremony as “the champion golfer of the year” — my favorite part of the entire Open week, don’t miss it — and the famed Claret Jug trophy. Priceless.

More British Open Coverage From SI.com/Morning Read

> This is Rory McIlroy’s Week. All That Remains Is To Win the British Open.
> Scottie Scheffler, a Fast Learner On the Old Course, Still Has a Chance
> Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick and Adam Scott Hoping for British Open Charge From Way Back
> Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland Share Lead, Set Up for Head-to-Head Sunday Showdown at St. Andrews
> Watch: British Open Day 3 Recap, Rory Tied For Lead
> Round 4 Tee Times

Click here to receive all the latest Morning Read news and commentary free in your inbox every morning.