Mater Dei vs. St. John Bosco could only meet once in 2024, here's why

Since 2016, Mater Dei and St. John Bosco have faced twice in the same year six of the last eight seasons; 2024 could be different ...

Mater Dei and St. John Bosco compete in the CIF Southern Section Division 1 championship in 2023. / Heston Quan

The Mater Dei and St. John Bosco high school football rivalry has turned into a two-part saga within recent years.

Since 2016, the two have faced twice in each season except for 2020 and 2021. In 2020, CIF had no championships due to COVID-19, and in the fall of 2021, Servite stunned the prep football world when it beat St. John Bosco in the Southern Section Division 1 semifinal.

Six of the last eight seasons, Mater Dei and St. John Bosco have played twice. The first always coming in Trinity League play, and each second-time matchup coming in the Division 1 final.

In that span, Mater Dei is 6-2 in Trinity League play against the Braves, but the two powerhouse programs are 3-3 in Division 1 finals against each other. In the six seasons the two have played twice, five have resulted in a swap of victories. Only in 2017 did Mater Dei win the league matchup and the final.

In fact, losing the Trinity League matchup humorously seems to be a recipe to go on and win the Division 1 title, which happened in 2016, '18, '19, '22 and '23.

YEAR	TRINITY LEAGUE	CIF FINALS
2016	26-21, MD	42-28, SJB
2017	31-12, MD	49-24, MD
2018	41-18, SJB	17-13, MD
2019	38-24, MD	39-34, SJB
2020 (spring '21)	34-17, MD	NO FINALS (COVID)
2021	42-21, MD	DNP
2022	17-7, MD	24-22, SJB
2023	28-0, SJB	35-7, MD

ONE-TIME MATCHUP IN 2024?

However, 2024's matchup between No. 1 Mater Dei (7-0) and No. 2 St. John Bosco (8-0) on Friday at the Santa Ana Bowl could be the only time the two face off, similar to 2021. Here's why ...

If this year's sample size of football has shown anything, it's that Mater Dei appears to be unbeatable. The defense has allowed just 102 points in seven games including a high of just 25 in Week 0 against Corona Centennial. Quarterback Dash Beierly has yet to throw an interception (with 14 TDs).

The Monarchs are likely to work their way to the Division 1 final. But will St. John Bosco meet them there again? The chances are much slimmer.

St. John Bosco, though unbeaten, is a young team (with a freshman QB) and has been grinding out victories the past three weeks, including a 28-24 win over Orange Lutheran, a 13-0 win over Santa Margarita, and a recent 27-17 win over Servite at SoFi Stadium.

Mater Dei defeated Santa Margarita 40-18 and Servite 28-6.

'Common opponent' isn't a foolproof analytic to forecast wins and losses, and this goes far beyond predicting that Mater Dei will beat St. John Bosco Friday, but that St. John Bosco might not survive a rematch with Sierra Canyon, or a matchup with Mission Viejo or Corona Centennial the playoffs.

Sierra Canyon had St. John Bosco within one score late into the fourth quarter earlier this season. Mission Viejo has been ranked No. 3 all season long and is 8-0. Corona Centennial is much improved and has won six straight.

If the current Calpreps rankings as of October 21 stay intact heading into the postseason and the Division 1 field is eight teams, St. John Bosco would play JSerra in the opening round and likely take on Mission Viejo in the semifinal.

The CIF Southern Section will reveal the 2024 football playoff pairings on Sunday morning, November 3

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