Predicting the winner of the Georgia Class 5A football state quarterfinals

High School On SI is going on the record to make our predictions on the GHSL 5A playoffs

Milton and QB Luke Nickel are driving towards another Class 5A state championship. Will the Eagles run into a rollback in the quarterfinal round. / David McGregor, SBLive

The Georgia Class 5A state quarterfinals are here and boy do we have some great matchups.  

All four teams from Region 2 - Lee County, Thomas County Central, Coffee and Houston County - are in the quarterfinals, and that shouldn’t surprise anyone. That was the best region in the state this season, bar none. 

In what could be the best game in the state, regardless of classification, we have Thomas County Central traveling north for a second straight week to face off against Langston Hughes. 

Both teams have lost just once this season, and the winner of that game will be the favorite to make it to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the state championship game. 

We also have a very intriguing matchup between Milton, the tournament favorite, and Houston County, the lone No. 4 seed to make it to the quarterfinals. The Bears score a lot of points and have already seen two powerhouses in the Trojans and the Yellow Jackets. 

Check out who High School on Si predicts will win their quarterfinal matchups on Friday, and who will secure a spot in the Class 6A state semifinals. 

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Coffee (10-2) at Sequoyah (11-1)

Picking the Coffee Trojans to advance to the Class 5A state quarterfinals was almost a forgone conclusion. Picking the Sequoyah Chiefs to be their opponent in that game was anything but. 

We picked the Chiefs to lose a close one to Woodward Academy in last week’s second round matchup and we were proven wrong. The Chiefs dominated the game and won 35-20. They’re now in the quarterfinals for the first time since 2018 and they keep proving the doubters wrong in the process. 

Coffee has blitzed their way through their first two opponents in the playoffs, and they’ve done it all on the road. They beat Jackson County 31-7 in the opening round and then handed Brunswick a 45-14 loss last Friday in Round 2. 

So who wins this matchup? Prior to the playoffs, I would have said the Trojans were the odds on favorite to win this quadrant of the bracket, even as a No. 3 seed. They played in the toughest region in the state with Lee County and Thomas County Central handing them their only two losses of the season. 

But with the way the Chiefs are playing, it’s going to be really hard to pick against them. The Trojans are about to embark on their third road trip of the playoffs, and the miles are starting to pile up. Their drive north to Canton will take the Trojans more than four hours. 

The traveling hasn’t fazed them yet, but it could be this go-around. The Chiefs are very underrated and it would not shock me at all if they’re able to come away with a win on Friday. 

Prediction: Sequoyah 31, Coffee 24 

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Thomas County Central (11-1) at Langston Hughes (11-1) 

If you’re a casual football fan living in the metro Atlanta area and are wanting to attend a good state quarterfinals matchup, this is the one you should go to. 

Thomas County Central, who has looked dominant all season outside of their lone loss to Lee County, is set to travel north to face off against Langston Hughes, another 11-1 team that is fresh off a huge win against Roswell in Round 2.

The Yellow Jackets had to make a lot trip north last week to face Rome for a second straight year in the playoffs, and they absolutely rolled the Wolves 35-7. The Panthers on the other hand jumped out to an early lead on Roswell and held them off to win 31-21. 

Both of these teams have flown under the radar to an extent this season. We’ve had both of these teams in the Top 10 of our Power 25 for much of the season, and they’ll enter this matchup as Class 5’s No. 3 and No. 4 ranked teams. 

These are the last two teams to win the state’s second-largest classification. The Yellow Jackets won it last year going 15-0, and the Panthers won it in 2023 going 15-0. This will be the first time these two teams have met on a football field, and it’s sure to be a tremendous football game. 

Prediction: Thomas County Central 35, Langston Hughes 28

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Sprayberry (11-1) at Lee County (12-0) 

From 6-5 a year ago to 11-1 this year. The Sprayberry Yellow Jackets are in the midst of their best season since 1982, which was the last time they were playing in the state quarterfinals. 

They lost that year to the Peachtree Patriots in the quarterfinals, a school that has seen gone defunct. And unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, they’re likely to meet a similar fate against Lee County in this year’s quarterfinals.

We correctly picked the Yellow Jackets to beat Newnan last week in the second round. They easily took care of business 35-7 to lock up a spot in the quarterfinals. Their first two opponents in this year’s playoffs have been anything but gauntlets. But the same can’t be said for their third-round matchup. 

Lee County awaits them on Friday. They’re 12-0 and haven’t sniffed a loss this season. They beat Habersham Central 47-7 in Round 1 and East Paulding 63-14 in Round 2 last Friday. 

No one has had an answer for senior quarterback Weston Bryan. He’s been deadly with both his arm and legs this season, throwing for 2,197 yards and 26 touchdowns and rushing for 1,132 yards and 28 touchdowns. 

And when he’s not making plays on offense, it’s been Georgia 4-star running back commit Ousmane Kromah, who has rushed for 1,190 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. 

Sprayberry has spread the ball around this season, too with Jaden Duckett running the show at quarterback. And they’re going to score some points on the Trojans. But it won’t be enough to keep their season alive. 

Prediction: Lee County: 45, Sprayberry 17

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Houston County (8-4) at Milton (12-0) 

Don’t let Houston County’s 8-4 record fool you. And don’t let their seeding fool you either. This isn’t your average No. 4 seed that’s gearing up to play in the Class 5A state playoffs against the tournament favorite Milton. 

Of the eight teams remaining in the Class 5A state playoffs, four of the teams are from Region 2. Lee County, Thomas County Central, Coffee and Houston County. The Bears lost to all three of those teams, but it wasn’t a lot. They lost to Thomas County Central by 10 and to Coffee by 14. 

The Bears entered the playoffs as the region’s No. 4 seed, and they’ve done nothing but romp their first two opponents. They blasted Clarke Central 69-48, and followed that up with a 63-12 win over Lakeside-Evans in Round 2. 

Both were inferior opponents to that of the Bears, and their opponent this Friday will be anything but. Awaiting them is Milton, the state’s No. 1 team and the favorite to win the 5A state championship. 

The Eagles aren’t overly flashy. They’re just an extremely well-coached, well-oiled machine that gets the job done on Friday nights. They’re battle-tested having played a very difficult schedule, and they’re loaded with athletes at virtually every position. 

They rolled Woodstock in Round 1 and Dutchtown in Round 2, out-scoring those two teams by a combined 83-10. But holding the Bears to a touchdown or less is going to be a lot easier said than done. 

That makes this a very intriguing matchup. Everyone has assumed the Eagles would roll into the semifinals and face off against Lee County. And the winner of that game would be the odds on favorite to win the title in Mercedes-Benz Stadium next month. 

But not so fast. We’re not calling this an upset watch, but the Bears are a very good football team. They score a lot of points and they don’t play a lot of defense. Milton should win this game, but it might be by a closer score than you think. 

Prediction: Milton 42, Houston County 28