Upset watch: Who is vulnerable in the Georgia 6A playoffs?

Several favorites could be in danger in this week's opening round? Here are 9 possibilities

Undefeated North Cobb is rolling into the playoffs, but as the top seed out of Region 5, the Warriors could be in for a major challenge from fourth seed Camden County / Colin Hubbard

There are quite a few teams that should be on upset watch in the first round of the Class AAAAAA state playoffs. 

Putting state rankings aside for this, an upset will be considered as a lower seed defeating a higher seed in Round 1. While some lower seeds on this list might have a higher state ranking, it will still be considered an upset in the record books. 

Last season, there were only three upsets in Round 1. 

No. 3 North Gwinnett beat No. 2 West Forsyth 31-6. No. 3 Camden County beat No. 2 Newton 29-15 and No. 3 Collins Hill beat No. 2 North Cobb 45-14. 

This year, we have the potential of seeing a lot more for various reasons. 

No. 3 Valdosta vs No. 2 Walton

The Wildcats are the better team. There’s really no arguing that. 

They’ve played in arguably the toughest region in the classification, Region 1 that features four great teams in Colquitt County, Lowndes, Valdosta and Camden County. They went 8-2 during the regular season and have quality wins against Colquitt County, Camden County and South Gwinnett. 

The Raiders have taken a step back this season after finishing as the state runner-up last year to Milton. They still managed to go 7-3 during the regular season, but were out-classed by North Cobb and Norcross. Their third loss was to a really good Roswell team by 10 points, and they beat Cherokee by just 10 points. For reference, they beat Cherokee 48-7 last season. 

Could the Raiders win? Sure, anything is possible. But the Wildcats have a great chance to beat Walton on Friday and advance to the Round of 16. 

No. 3 Norcross vs No. 2 Lambert 

Gwinnett County football teams have tormented Forsyth County for years now, and Lambert knows that all too well having lost a playoff game to Peachtree Ridge, North Gwinnett and Collins Hill in each of the past three years. 

This year, the Longhorns are matched up against yet another Gwinnett County football team in the playoffs, and it’s Norcross, who fell into their region’s No. 3 seed after getting stunned at home to Brookwood in their final game. 

On paper, the Blue Devils are the better team. They’ve got a higher state ranking and had a very solid regular season going until they were upended by the Broncos. 

The Longhorns went 7-3 during the regular season with losses to Mill creek - another Gwinnett County program - Walton and North Atlanta. 

Norcross beat Walton 41-14 a week after Walton beat Lambert 41-10. The Blue Devils also played Mill Creek a lot tougher than the Longhorns. They lost just 21-10 while the Longhorns lost to the Hawks 56-26. 

The Blue Devils have stumbled down the stretch, and we’re about to find out if that stumble will continue with a first-round exit to Lambert, or if it will fuel a first-round win over a team that can’t seem to buy a win against a Gwinnett County school. 

No. 3 South Gwinnett at No. 2 Hillgrove 

The Hillgrove Hawks have had one of the better turnarounds in a state this season, improving from a 2-win team in 2023 to a 9-win team in 2024. Their nine wins during the regular season is more than they’ve had in their previous three seasons combined (7). 

And once you take a look at their schedule, you start to see why a turnaround like that was possible. 

The Hawks had a fairly lax schedule as members of the new Region 3-6A. Their best win this season came against McEachern, a game they won by a touchdown 30-23. Their only loss during region play came against Harrison 24-14, and that was good enough to reward them with a home playoff game in the first round. 

Awaiting them in the first round is South Gwinnett, a team that has flown under the radar a bit this season. They got off to a good start this season winning their first three games, and then played Valdosta, a game they lost 27-14. 

They then had a long layoff due to Hurricane Helen and the Conyers chemical fire that sidelined them for weeks. They ended the season playing so-so with losses to Grayson and Newton to earn the region’s No. 3 seed. 

When the Comets take the field against the Hawks, they aren’t going to be fazed having already seen some of the state’s best. This has the makings of being a great Round 1 game in the state of Georgia, and it could break either way. 

No. 3 Mill Creek at No. 2 Douglas County 

Frustrating would be a great word to describe how Mill Creek’s regular season went. 

In two of their three losses, they had second-half leads. They led North Gwinnett in the closing minutes before falling 37-34. They then blew a lead to Collins Hill and lost 13-12. 

They later ended their regular season with their worst loss of the season, losing to Buford 32-7, and that has forced the Hawks to go on the road in Round 1 of the Class 6A state playoffs where they will face off against Douglas County. 

The Tigers went 8-2 during the regular season with their only two losses coming against Top 3 teams in the state in Carrollton and Buford. They didn’t come close to winning either one of those games, but only their loss to the Trojans went against them in the region standings. 

They cruised for the most part in their remaining Region 2 games and were awarded with a No. 2 seed and a home playoff game as a result. 

The Tigers will be favored in this matchup, but it won’t be by a lot. This isn’t the same Mill Creek team that went undefeated and won the Class 7A state championship, but they’re still a formidable opponent. 

Because of that, the Tigers have to be on upset watch, and it’s a shame that one of these two teams have to lose in the first round. 

No. 3 McEachern vs No. 2 Newton 

On paper, the Newton Rams should beat the McEachern Indians in the first round Friday night. 

But given their history in the playoffs, it’s a team you absolutely have to put on upset watch. For whatever reason, the Rams haven't been able to win playoff games in recent memory. They’re 0-8 in their last eight playoff games dating back to 2016.  

And it’s a stat that head coach Josh Skelton is well aware of, having been the head coach, or on the coaching staff since that losing streak started. 

Last year, the Rams ran into a buzzsaw in Camden County, a team that wound up making a run to the Final 4. In years prior to that, they just fell flat and weren’t playing their best football at the right time. 

Their opponent on Saturday will be McEachern, a team they know fairly well. The two teams met during the regular season last year, and the Rams won 13-7 after the game was called early due to lightning. 

The Indians went 6-4 during the regular season and have looked really good at times. But they’ve lost all of their biggest games this season, including two region games to Harrison and Hillgrove. 

Newton has had a fairly similar regular season to that of McEachern. They won all of their games played against inferior opponents, but couldn’t win their biggest games. They lost to cross-town rival Eastside in Game 1 and lost to arch nemesis Grayson last week in the Region 4 Championship game. 

Is this the year the Rams finally snap their long losing streak in the playoffs? We will find out on Saturday. 

No. 4 Peachtree Ridge at No. 1 North Atlanta 

We didn’t have any No. 1 seeds lose in the first round of last year’s largest classification. This year, No. 4 Peachtree Ridge might be the team to do it. 

The Lions took a step back this season after posting their first 10-win season in 14 years last season. But with several key players from that team graduating, and another transferring, the Lions were only able to post a 5-5 record during the regular season and sneak into the playoffs as a No. 4 seed. 

North Atlanta on the other hand had a polar opposite regular season. They posted a 9-1 record and won their first region championship in program history dating back to 1991. 

Their schedule and region, however, were very favorable. They competed out of Region 6, which featured all of the Forsyth County schools and Alpharetta. They were able to gut out close wins against Lambert and West Forsyth to win the region with an undefeated record. 

When it comes to which team is more battle tested, you could argue it’s the Lions. 

They played a much more difficult regular season, playing three Top 25 teams in North Gwinnett, Roswell and Norcross. And three of their five losses were by three points or fewer. 

It won’t be easy for the Lions to win this game, but it’s very possible and wouldn’t be all that surprising. 

No. 3 West Forsyth at No. 2  Brookwood 

If anyone in Forsyth County knows about getting tormented by Gwinnett County, it’s the West Forsyth Wolverines. 

The Wolverines  have faced a Gwinnett County school 15 times in their program’s history dating back to 2010, and they’re just 3-12 all-time. In all 12 of their seasons in which they have made the playoffs, a Gwinnett County school has ended their season in all 12 years. 

On Friday, the Wolverines will match up with yet another Gwinnett County program, Brookwood who enters the matchup red hot, having won their last six games. They stunned Norcross on the road in their final game to earn a home playoff game. 

West Forsyth went 7-3 during the regular season, narrowly losing two region games to Lambert 13-0 and North Atlanta 28-24. They’re about as well-coached as you can get with Dave Svehla running the show and they’ll enter the matchup winners of five out of their last six. 

History would tell you that Brookwood is going to win this game. And the fact that they’re playing their best football at the right time makes their chances that much greater. They’ve been a one-man band for the most part with superstar sophomore running back Brayden Tyson rushing for 2,123 yards and 26 touchdowns during the regular season. 

If the Wolverines can keep Tyson in check, they’ll have a great chance to win the game. If Tyson does what he’s been doing the entire season, it could mark the 13th time in 16 games that the Wolverines have lost to a Gwinnett County school in the playoffs. 

No. 4 Archer at No. 1 Harrison

Can a three-win team win a playoff game in Georgia’s Class 6A? If there’s a team to do it this year, it’s the Archer Tigers. 

No matter how you slice it, the Tigers haven’t had a good season. They won just three games and weren’t overly competitive in any of their seven losses. So why do they have a chance to win a playoff game this season? 

The team they’re getting ready to face, the Harrison Hoyas are a team that has flown under the radar all season, and for good reason. They went 9-1 during the regular season, but didn’t play anyone of note. 

That’s no fault of theirs given seven of their 10 games came against Region 3 opponents. It wasn’t a strong region by any means, but the Hoyas still took care of business like they should have. 

Harrison will without a doubt be favored to beat Archer on Friday, but it’s a game that’s on slight upset watch. The Tigers have played a much tougher schedule that featured four Top 25 teams in the state while the Hoyas played zero. 

No. 4 Camden County at No. 1 North Cobb 

North Cobb has had a terrific regular season going 10-0 and winning the Region 5 championship. They have only gotten stronger as the season has gone on and have been ranked inside the Top 25 in the state of Georgia for weeks now. 

Their opponent for Friday’s first round, Camden County, is another team that has been ranked for virtually the entire season, albeit having a very different regular season than that of the Warriors. 

The Wildcats started off the season hot, beating up on a handful of average Florida high schools before stumbling a bit in Region 1 play. They lost by 19 points to Valdosta in their region opener and were blown out a couple weeks later by Lowndes 33-7. 

They followed that loss up with a much better performance against Colquitt County, but still lost by 10 points, 51-41. 

As a result, the Wildcats are entering the playoffs as a No. 4 seed, and their road will start with a long trip north to face off against the undefeated Warriors in Round 1. 

This is absolutely a game the Warriors should win. But don’t count out the Wildcats. They’re way more battle tested than the Warriors having played in a grueling region, and they have a recent history of making deep playoff runs. 

North Cobb on the other hand hasn’t had the best of luck recently in the playoffs. They were upset at home by Collins Hill in last year’s playoffs, and haven’t made it past the second round since 2016. 

It would be a little surprising if the Warriors lose this game, but it wouldn't be shocking.