Predicting the Winners of the Maryland High School Football State Championship Games

See who High School On SI thinks will win each MPSSAA state championship game

In the most anticipated match-up of this week's MPSSAA state championship showdowns, Quince Orchard and Wise will square off for the Class 4A state crown. Who will win this battle between the state's top two public schools? Read on and we'll tell you. / Quince Orchard Football Instagram

The Maryland state public high school football playoffs have reached their climax. Starting Thursday, six MPSSAA state champions will be crowned at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis.

To make things interesting, here is a breakdown each of the six title games and our predicitions on who will win.

MPSSAA FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIPS

at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Thursday Dec. 5

CLASS 4A/3A Final 

NORTH POINT (11-2) vs. MERGENTHALER (11-2)

When: Thursday, 7 p.m.

This is rematch of the 2023 title match, won by Mervo on a touchdown late in regulation. The Mustangs have been sparked by quarterback Davon Smith, who has accounted for more than 3,000 yards and 40 touchdowns.

North Point has won 11 of 12 after dropping its opener to Southern Maryland Athletic Conference rival Leonardtown, who lost to Mervo in the state semifinals The Eagles are making their third consecutive state final. 

Prediction: This game should again come down to the final minutes of regulation. Mergenthaler finds a way to repeat and claim its third 4A/3A title in four seasons. 

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CLASS 2A/1A Final 

NO. 9 PAUL LAWRENCE DUNBAR (13-0) vs. No. 11 PATUXENT (13-0)

When: Friday, 4 p.m.

Dunbar looks to win a fourth straight 2A/1A championship. The Poets haven’t allowed a score in the postseason (six straight shutouts overall).

Patuxent may have the best public school player in the state in quarterback Evan Blouir, who has accounted for 4,648 yards and 66 touchdowns this season. The Panthers lost to Dunbar in the 2022 2A/1A state final.

Prediction: This game will come down to Dunbar’s ability to contain the prolific Blouir. The Poets have several playmakers and that should push the Baltimore City school to another state title.

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CLASS 4A Final

NO. 5 HENRY A. WISE (11-1) vs. NO. 6 QUINCE ORCHARD (12-0)

When: Friday, 7:30 p.m.

This is probably the most anticipated match of championship weekend. Widely regarded as the top public school squads in Maryland, Quince Orchard and Wise have combined to win the last eight 4A state titles.

Wise has won 11 straight since a season-opening loss to Virginia’s top-ranked team Maury. Temple commit DeCarlos Young and Eric Wedge leads the offense (43 points per game) while Trent Wilson (Oklahoma) and Taylor Brown (West Virginia) highlight the defense that has allowed only 47 points this season.

Quince Orchard is looking for its second title in three seasons. The Cougars are averaging 41 points a game behind Maryland commit Iverson Howard (running back) and quarterback Travon Jackson. Aydan West (Michigan State; five interceptions) leads a defense that has allowed just 75 points in 12 games. 

Prediction: With Power 4 star power on both sides, this “Game of Thrones” battle with come down to quarterback play with Jackson and Wedge and who makes the fewer mistakes. Quince Orchard had to watch last year’s championship game from home after an early exit. That has motivated the Cougars this season and will carry them to a third championship since 2019.

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CLASS 1A Final

NO. 19 FORT HiII (6-7) vs. NORTHERN-GARRETT (8-5)

When: Saturday, 12 p.m.

It’s an all-Western Maryland final for the fourth straight year as Fort Hill looks to continue its reign. The Sentinels, who had to forfeit five wins at the end of the regular season for a violation of Allegany County (Md.) Public Schools and state athletic rules, have won all their postseason games on the road.

Northern-Garrett, led by senior Luke Ross (over 1,800 all-purpose yards, 23 touchdowns), is making its first state championship game appearance. The Huskies lost to Fort Hill, 42-7, in the teams’ season opener Sept. 6.

Prediction: After four straight road games, Fort Hill will feel right at “home” at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium where it’s won the last three 1A championship games.

The Sentinels will easily make it four. 

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CLASS 2A Final

NO. 23 HUNTINGTOWN (10-2) vs. NO. 20 STEPHEN DECATUR (13-0)

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Huntingtown and Decatur meet again for the 2A championship. Last year, Decatur claimed its first title with a 21-13 victory. 

The Seahawks kept their repeat pursuit intact, rallying from a 20-point second half deficit to knock off Westlake in overtime, 27-20. Decatur has relied on a two quarterback system on offense (43 points a game) with juniors Blake Cannamo and Johnny Hobgood.

Huntingtown has a balanced offensive attack featuring Dominic Hickman (quarterback), Landon Cawley (running back) and Brody Whittington (wide receiver). The Hurricanes, who allowed their first points of the postseason in the semifinals against Milford Mill Academy (24-16 win), is led defensively by West Virginia commit Evan Powell. 

Prediction: Stephen Decatur has shown its historic 2023 season (first Eastern Shore team in three decades to win.a state title) wasn’t a fluke. The unbeaten Seahawks showed championship grit in their epic comeback against Westlake.

Huntingtown is battle-tested, playing state semifinal teams Leonardtown and Westlake in Southern Maryland Athletic Conference play during the regular season.  

Add the memory of last year’s title game loss, and the Hurricanes will get redemption and the 2A title.

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CLASS 3A Final 

NO. 14 ARUNDEL (11-1) vs. NO. 12 LINGANORE (13-0), 7 p.m.

When: Saturday, 7 p.m.

Two teams looking to end state championship heartache meet. Linganore, which lost to Frederick County (Md.) rival Oakdale in last year’s 3A final, has relied on junior running back Bradly Matthews (2,460 yards, 36 touchdowns), quarterback Shawn Pelovitz and an opportunistic defense. Arundel (lost in 4A/3A final in 2022) has one of the state’s top scoring offenses, led by senior quarterback Ahmir Lowery (35 total touchdowns) and TJ Mordecai. 

Prediction: Arundel’s offense hasn’t been as prolific in the postseason (29.7 points per game) compared to the regular season (53.7), but should be able to move ball against Linganore’s defense. The Lancers will look to grind Arundel with its running game, but can strike vertically with Pelovitz who has a school-record 31 touchdown passes. 

After losing its last four state title games, Linganore will end its championship drought.