Predicting the winners of the 2024 Missouri high school football playoff semifinals

See who High School on SI thinks will earn a spot in 2024 MSHSAA Show-Me Showdown

Lafayette (Wildwood) quarterback Jack Behl runs away from Cardinal Ritter defender Jocquez Felix in a game last week. / Tim Vizer

Only four teams remain in each 11-man classification in the 2024 Missouri High School football season. High School on SI has predictions for every semifinal game.

The MSHSAA semifinals of the state tournament are on November 30 at various locations in the state. High School on SI will have coverage throughout the 2024 Missouri high school football state tournament.

(MSHSAA) high school football 2024 state tournament brackets, matchups, game times

Missouri High School Football Semifinal Predictions

CLASS 6

Kirkwood (9-2) vs. Nixa (12-0)

This will technically be the second varsity game this week for Kirkwood on paper but for the first time. Each Thanksgiving, Kirkwood and Webster Groves square off in a rivalry that dates back to 1898 and sometimes the postseason play causes issues. In this case, usually, the team that is still alive uses it JV or freshmen squads to compete in the Turkey Day Game. 

Kirkwood’s varsity has won six in a row and the past two weeks upset both CBC and Jackson. MLB Carson Lindquist had 11 tackles against Jackson, including a key fourth-down stop. He has 99 tackles on the year. 

Nixa is coming off a 21-20 win against Lee’s Summit North thanks to a late touchdown pass from sophomore Adam McKnight. That was the lowest-scoring game of the year but also came against probably the best team the Eagles have faced. 

Prediction: Nixa 42, Kirkwood 28

Liberty (9-3) vs. De Smet (10-2)

In a Kansas City vs. St. Louis showdown, the teams are evenly matched on paper. De Smet holds a slight advantage in points per game (34 to 31) and points allowed (15 to 17) going into this contest. 

The Spartans are led by Kansas State pledge Dillon Duff. He threw for 307 yards and a touchdown and ran for another in a 28-14 win over Columbia Rock Bridge last week. He has more completions (178) than Liberty has pass attempts (148) this season. 

Liberty has been a run-first team all year and it's hard to argue with that given the results. Senior Jaxon Hicks is one of the best to ever play for the Blue Jays and this year’s ran for 2,539 yards and 27 touchdowns. He’s had more than 100 yards in every game for Liberty. This is the Blue Jays’ longest postseason run since 1997.

Prediction: De Smet 35, Liberty 21

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CLASS 5

MICDS (11-2) vs Platte County (12-0)

The only two losses for MICDS are two teams still playing: Class 6 semifinalist De Smet and Class 4 semifinalist Lutheran North. 

During its 6-game winning streak, the Spartans have scored 38 or more in every game. QB/RB Brian Gould, an Army pledge, had four rushing touchdowns and 228 yards in a 49-3 win over Fort Zumwalt East last week. 

QB Rocco Marriott became the school’s career record holder with 60 after last week’s 35-0 win over Webb City. He’s only three touchdowns shy of the single-season record. 

Prediction: Platte County 35, MICDS 31

Lafayette Wildwood (12-1) vs. Helias Catholic (11-1)

There may not been a bigger upset last week than Lafayette posting a 30-18 win against Cardinal Ritter and knocking off the two-time defending state champion. The path for the Lancers to get here included wins against teams that were 8-2, 8-3 and 9-1, respectively. 

Lafayette LB Brady Calderon had 20 tackles, 1 sack and 1 interception last week. Helias is seeking state title No. 4 and the first since winning Class 4 in 2020. 

Down seven late last week, Helias quarterback Austin Weaver threw a touchdown to Logan Hillman with 1:17 left to tie the game at 21-21 against Republic. A field goal in OT gave the Crusaders a seventh straight win. Incidentally, both teams are scoring 39 points per game.

Prediction: Lafayette Wildwood 28, Helias 24

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CLASS 4

Festus (10-2) vs. Warrenton (12-0)

Festus handed Gateway STEM its first lost week and will try to do the same against another St. Louis-area school. The Tigers have 10 wins for only the second time since 2010 and are a win away from going to a state final for the first time. 

RB Leauntae Williams and Kamden Yates both ran for more than 100 yards in a 48-14 win over Gateway. 

Warrenton RB Austin Haas has 2,347 yards and 29 touchdowns on the season — with at least one touchdown in every game. 

Warrenton’s 12 wins are the most since 11 — coming last year and 2010 — a runner-up finish in Class 4. 

Prediction: Warrenton 27, Festus 14

Kearney (12-0) vs. Lutheran North (11-1)

With all due regard to the other semifinal, it is likely the state champion next week will be whoever wins this battle. Kearney is the defending champion and hasn’t lost since Week 3 of the 2023 season — to Smithville. That’s 24 in a row heading into the penultimate game of the season. 

QB Carter Temple ran for four touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ 49-14 win over Warrensburg last week. 

Lutheran North has been the top team in the Missouri Top 25 rankings since upsetting Cardinal Ritter, 50-48, in the regular season finale. The Crusaders also have wins against Blair Oaks, Maryville and MICDS, all teams still playing. 

Lutheran North needed a touchdown with 21 seconds left against Parkway North to survive, 24-18. 

Prediction: Kearney 21, Lutheran North 14 

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CLASS 3

St. Louis Lift for Life (8-5) vs. Seneca (12-0)

Lift for Life may be the biggest Cinderella in the field after going 4-5 in the regular season. However, the regular season included four losses to teams with 9 wins or more. 

Since postseason play started, the Hawks have beaten two 9-win teams and handed 11-win Dexter its first loss last week. Can they do the same against Seneca? 

The Lift for Life defense got a pair of pick-6s last week from Kameron Hurst against Dexter. Seneca is playoff tested with four straight district titles before and was the runner-up last year. 

The Indians are seeking their first state title since 1995 and have a deep roster good at running the ball. Seneca posted 438 yards on the ground in a 55-26 win against Mount Vernon last week with Roman Miller scoring four times on 17 carries. 

Prediction: Seneca 52, Lift for Life 14

Blair Oaks (11-1) vs. Maryville (9-4)

This semifinal game is a rematch from Week 1, which Blair Oaks won handily, 61-12.

Due to injuries, the Falcons won’t have the same team but QB Tyler Bax is still playing well. The Falcons defense has posted five shutouts, including last week’s 49-0 win over Hallsville. 

Blair Oaks’ first three postseason games were all rematches with conference foes, which accounts for six of the team’s 11 wins. 

Maryville has lost 8 in a row against Blair Oaks and the last win came in 2017 — when Maryville beat Blair Oaks on the way to a state title. Maryville used a combination of a strong defense and a rushing attack to beat Odessa 14-0 last week. The Spoofhounds had a 20-play, 91-yard scoring drive last week.

Prediction: Blair Oaks 49, Maryville 21

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CLASS 2

Bowling Green (12-1) vs. Lamar (9-4)

This is a rematch of a semifinal game last year that Lamar won 47-16. Bowling Green avenged its only loss of the season with a 36-28 win against Valle Catholic last week. in the first meeting, the Bobcats lost that showdown by 22 points. Quarterback Jake Eskew threw a trio of touchdown passes and Dane Dunn ran for two in the victory. 

This is the most losses for Lamar in the early 2000s. Lamar last lost four games in 2010 and that was followed by seven straight state titles. This Lamar team is like many in the past with a strong running game but the defense is giving up 20 points per game — 9 more on average than last year. 

In a 24-13 win over Pembroke Hill, Lamar put together a 15-play drive that eclipsed 7 minutes, 43 seconds to grind out a win. Terren Williams ran for two scores in the win. 

Prediction: Lamar 35, Bowling Green 18

Fair Grove (13-0) vs. South Shelby (11-1) 

Fair Grove escaped with a close 14-13 win last week against Lafayette County. The Eagles return to the state semifinals, where they lost last year to Valle Catholic. In the past two weeks, Fair Grove handed Father Tolton Regional Catholic its first loss and then beat a 12-win Valle Catholic. 

Kellen Lair (kickoff return) and Skylar Todd (touchdown catch) scored for the Eagles. The two teams are pretty identical with scoring offenses both averaging 40 or more per game and defenses that give up less than two scores per game. 

The Cardinals are in the semifinals for the first time since 2011, when they took second. 

Pryce Eagan had a pair of scores in a 28-26 win over Mid-Buchanan last week. 

Prediction: Fair Grove 21, South Shelby 7

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CLASS 1

St. Vincent (12-0) vs. Adrian (11-1) 

St. Vincent is back in the semifinals for the second year in a row, last year falling to eventual champion Marionville in this round. There will be a new state champion this year as Adrian beat Marionville last week. 

At 12-0, St. Vincent is having its best season since 2004, when it won a state championship. The Indians cruised to a 42-0 win last week against Crystal City. Senior quarterback Nick Buchheit threw four touchdowns and has 40 in his first year starting. 

Adrian has been a traditional power in Class 1 as this is the seventh time in the past eight years with 10 wins or more but they have only one title berth — a loss in 2022 — to show for it. Quarterback Colton Miller had a touchdown pass and run in a 17-16 win over Marionville. 

This is the third postseason meeting between the two with previous showdowns in 2000 and 1998.

Prediction: St. Vincent 24, Adrian 17 

Tipton (11-1) vs. Hamilton Penney (8-4) 

Tipton enters on a 9-game winning streak after beating Harrisburg for the second time this season — incidentally both times by six points. The only loss for Tipton was against Class 2 semifinalist Lamar in Week 3. Sophomore Paxton Pyle wide receiver had a 10-yard touchdown catch with 5.2 seconds left last week to get the Cardinals the win. 

Penney dispatched North Platte last week, beating a team that was the Class 1 runner-up last year. Quarterback Titus McBee scored twice for the Hornets in the 35-13 win last week. 

Tipton is seeking its first bid to the finals, while Hamilton has been to five title games — winning four — since 2019. 

If Penney wins, it will mark five years in a row when a team from the KCI Conference made the finals. 

Prediction: Hamilton 28, Tipton 21