Will Serra keep it close against Mater Dei in CIF Open? Can 12-0 Padres pull off miracle?

History, recruiting rankings and computer predictions all say emphatically no, but those familiar with Padres say there's a chance

The final scene of “Dumb and Dumber,” when Jim Carrey’s character pleads with love interest Lauren Holley to give him the odds of the two being a couple, is iconic to optimists everywhere.

When she denounces the 100-in-a-hundred possibility to “more like one-in-a-million,” Carrey revels in glee.

“So you’re saying there’s a chance!” he shouts with utter exuberance. “Yes!”

Some look at Serra’s football chances against Mater Dei Saturday in the final California game of the 2023 season in the same vein. Any believing the game will be close are dumb. Any contemplating a Serra victory, dumber.

So goes conventional thinking, anyway.  

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The 8 p.m. CIF Open Division championship game Saturday at Saddleback College, the pinnacle and premier contest of the 15 bowl game series, is supposed to go to a running clock, according to a calpreps.com computer prediction.

Final: Mater Dei 44, Serra 8.

That’s right in line with the last two seasons in the same games when Serra lost 44-7 to Mater Dei in 2021 and 45-0 last season to St. John Bosco. Both years, the Padres came in riding historic and stellar seasons.

Both years they left deflated, but prideful, knowing down deep they were outmanned by teams superior in talent and depth.

After the Bosco game last season, Serra coach Patrick Walsh held court with multiple media members and answered questions for more than 15 minutes on the topic of the invincibility of Mater Dei and St. John Bosco, programs that have shared the Open title every season since 2016.

The scores on those games:

* 2016: St. John Bosco 56, De La Salle-Concord 33

* 2017: Mater Dei 52, De La Salle 21

* 2018: Mater Dei 35, De La Salle 21

* 2019: St. John Bosco 49, De La Salle 28

* 2021: Mater Dei 44, Serra 7

* 2022: St. John Bosco 45, Serra 0

Some of Walsh's comments after last year's title game: 

“Whoever comes out of the North is behind the 8-ball,” Walsh said at the time. “I don’t want this to come across as sour grapes or they are doing something, because they’re not. … But the reality of the situation is that Mater Dei and Bosco are built differently than the rest of us.

“I said before this game that our players and coaches couldn’t get into a better position spiritually or emotionally than we were for this game. We were 13-0. We had overcome things. Our players believed. Our fans believed. We believed. And we lost by 45 points.

Watch: Serra coach Patrick Walsh talks about facing St. John Bosco, Mater Dei in last game of season

“Do I want to be back here again next year against a team like this? (Long pause). I mean truthfully, I want to be in a game where we are underdogs potentially with a chance to win. But it appears after doing this two years in a row it’s almost like we have no chance.”

Walsh has changed that tune slightly, perhaps because he believes this Padres’ team — a special group wreaking with experience, smarts and football knowledge — has a shot. And not like the chance Holly laid on Carrey.

That doesn’t mean he’s predicting a Serra upset. But there may be some silver linings. He calls Saturday’s game — and the crazy 22-day days of preparation for it — “the perfect storm.”

New Central Coast Section formatting ended its postseason seven days earlier than normal. The CIF’s built-in extra week for committee-selected Open Division squads adds up to the three-week preparation, almost like college teams prepping for a Bowl game.

Walsh offered some unconventional direction for the unconventional layoff, like giving his starters complete time off periodically from contact, calling up JV and freshman players to organize a Thanksgiving Day scrimmage, and general bonding time to soak up the moment.

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“We’ve made the most of the situation by utilizing time to our advantage and celebrating our relationships,” he said. “We maxed out the season, playing the last game in a state which is one of the best states in the nation at playing football.”

Four of his best — Joseph Bey, Jabari Mann, Danny Niu and edge rusher Collin Tahitua — have literally taken snapshots together after every game since their freshmen seasons. 

Add in other three-year starters like Maealiuaki Smith and two-way starter Jaden Green, many who are sons of coaches, and it’s no wonder this team has gone 42-3 over the last four seasons, won three CCS and West Catholic Athletic League titles (there was an abbreviated spring season during COVID) and selected as the best Northern California team three times.

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Last week, when asked about scheduling St. John Bosco for its nonleague 2024 season, Walsh said: “We are not afraid to lose at Serra. While we want to win, football for us is a tool to improve lives. The reality of life is that it’s hard and you don’t always win. We welcome all outcomes in all games, especially against the best teams in the state.

“Game on.”

Besides Mater Dei’s expert coaching and rugged schedule, the biggest challenges for the Padres is simply the Monarchs' personnel. 

They feature 10 of the state’s top 100 senior recruits and six of the top 15, along with seven of the top 80 junior recruits, according to 247Sports.

Mater Dei’s top six seniors are all committed to attend Power 5 conferences:

* No. 1 state rankings, DL Aydin Breland (6-foot-5, 290 pounds) to Oregon.

* No. 3, OT Brandon Baker (6-5, 285) to Texas

* No. 4 CB Zabien Brown to Alabama

* No. 11 OL DeAndre Carter (6-4, 340) to Auburn

* No. 13 RB Nate Frazier (5-11, 208) to Georgia

* No. 15 QB Elijah Brown (6-2, 200) to Stanford

Mater Dei’s top four juniors and state recruiting rankings:

* No. 2, DE Nasir Wyatt (6-2, 210)

* No. 6 CB Daryus Dixson (6-0, 180)

* No. 12 RB Jordon Davison (5-11, 203)

* No. 13 CB Chuck McDonald (6-0, 180)

That’s just 10 of Mater Dei’s top recruits. Upwards of 40 Monarchs have been offered Division I scholarships — 40 — meaning at least 18 of them don’t even start.

Walsh bluntly says Mater Dei’s defense “May be the best defense we’ve ever seen. Even compared to the Mater Dei team of 2021 or Bosco of 2022. That’s the biggest challenge this game — getting first downs and ultimately the points necessary to win.”

It’s not like Serra doesn’t have top talent itself. Consider their top eight senior recruits and college destinations:

* No. 44 AB Maealiuaki Smith (6-4, 200) to Oklahoma State

* No. 89 S Joseph Bey (6-1, 195) to San Jose State

* No. 172 ATH Danny Niu (6-1, 215) to San Diego State

* No. 173 LB Jabari Mann (6-0, 210) to San Jose State

* No. 188 TE Cole Harrison (6-5, 215) uncommitted

* No. 228 LB Marley Alapati (6-0, 205) to Army

* No. 307 ATH Kyon Loud (6-1, 180) to Montana

* No. 349 Collin Tahitua (6-0, 230) uncommitted

So what truly is the chance of Serra pulling off the upset? One-hundred-to-one? A million-to-one? 

Walsh chose to answer this way: 

“I love this team so much," he said. "These seniors have been so much fun to coach and be around. We feel very proud and we are excited to play in the game." 

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