Predicting winners of the 10 best high school football state championship games this week (12/11/2024)

Mater Dei or De La Salle? Lakeland or St. Thomas Aquinas? Edna Karr vs. Alexandria? Here are the unpredictable answers

Lakeland and St. Thomas Aquinas have some history. Here's the Dreadnaughts' Chris Rainey scoring a 73-yard touchdown in the Class 5A state final against the Raiders in 2006. / Scott Wheeler / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We've reached arguably the biggest week of the 2024 high school football season from a national perspective.

California, Florida, Louisiana, Virginia, North and South Carolina and Connecticut will all crown state champions this week, starting Wednesday (Dec. 11) in Florida and finishing Saturday (Dec. 14) in California.

High School on SI will take a spin through the top 10 state championship games this week and pick a winner (plus the final score). Games are placed in the order they will be played.

1. Lakeland vs. St. Thomas Aquinas (Florida)

Julius Jones has had an outstanding sophomore season for St. Thomas Aquinas. / Joe Frisaro

7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, Dec. 12

Both of these high school football superpowers weathered close semifinals to get here (Lakeland edging out Niceville and St. Thomas Aquinas nipping Manatee), and this should be another squeaker. In a game loaded with future Power Four stars, I'll call a late TD connection from senior Andrew Indorf to sophomore Julius Jones to secure St. Thomas' Aquinas' 15th state championship.

Final score prediction: St. Thomas Aquinas 28-24

2. Dutch Fork vs. Summerville (South Carolina)

Summerville super sophomore Jaiden Kelly-Murray has over 1,000 yards receiving and 11 TD catches this season. | File photo /

2 p.m. ET Friday, Dec. 13

Dutch Fork and Summerville both enter the final undefeated and on a roll, coming off easy semifinal wins. Dutch Fork is looking for its third straight state championship, but I'm going to call a mini-upset here with a similar result as the Florida game above — 1,000-yard sophomore receiver Jaiden Kelly-Murray catching a late TD pass for a Green Wave victory.

Final score prediction: Summerville 21-20

3. Plantation American Heritage vs. Jones (Florida)

Jones quarterback Dereon Coleman, who will play his college football at the University of Miami, tosses a pass during practice. / Photo courtesy of Dereon Coleman

7:30 p.m. ET Friday, Dec. 13

If you like high-scoring games, this one is a can't-miss. American Heritage QB Dia Bell missed the Patriots' semifinal over Dillard, and his status is questionable. But even if he can't play, future Miami Hurricanes receiver Malachi Toney will step in capably at QB. Fellow Miami commit Dereon Coleman quarterbacks Jones' balanced offense. JaQuail Smith and the Jones running game will be the difference.

Final score prediction: Jones 42-38

4. San Diego Lincoln vs. Pittsburg (California)

Pittsburg senior quarterback Marley Alcantara may stand only 5-foot-7, but he outplayed 5-star junior quarterback Ryder Lions in a wild 28-27 win last week over Folsom. / Photo: Ernie Abrea

8 p.m. PT Friday, Dec. 13

Both teams are coming off come-from-behind wins, with Pittsburg battling back from a 21-0 deficit to beat Ryder Lyons and Folsom, while Lincoln trailed Newbury Park 27-14 heading into the fourth but stormed back to win. Expect a chippy affair between Northern and Southern California squads, and I'm calling the little quarterback (5-foot-7 Pittsburg QB Marley Alcantara) barely outplaying the big quarterback (6-foot-5 Oregon Ducks commit Akili Smith Jr.).

Final score prediction: Pittsburg 31, Lincoln 30

5. Edna Karr vs. Alexandria (Louisiana)

LSU running back commit JT Lindsey, left, leads the Alexandria offense against Edna Karr this week. / Melinda Martinez/ The Town Talk / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Noon CT Saturday, Dec. 14

This is a matchup featuring undefeated teams that battled through tough, relatively low-scoring semifinals. Edna Karr started the season No. 4 in our preseason Louisiana Top 25 and rose to No. 1, while Alexandria started at No. 14 and rose to No. 2. We're going with No. 2 in this one, with LSU RB commit JT Lindsey controlling the game on the ground.

Final score prediction: Alexandria 22-20

6. New Canaan vs. Darien (Connecticut)

New Canaan (red) has smothered the Class L competition in Connecticut in recent years. / Jimmy Zanor/NorwichBulletin / USA TODAY NETWORK

3 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 14

New Canaan has a young team, but that hasn't stopped the Rams from rolling through the regular season and playoffs toward a third straight state title. Darien is back again after losing 28-21 to New Canaan in last year's championship game and getting shut out 34-0 by the Rams on Thanksgiving. The Blue Wave make some adjustments to make it closer this time against their rival 4 miles up the road, but New Canaan keeps the trophy.

Final score prediction: New Canaan 34-28

7. Oscar Smith vs. James Madison (Virginia)

Oscar Smith will try to win its fifth state championship in program history. / Oscar Smith Football Instagram

5 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 14

Oscar Smith and James Madison both enter the championship game 14-0, with the former coming in at No. 4 in our Virginia Top 25 and the latter at No. 5. All-purpose back Dominic Knicely will do all he can for Madison, but the balance of sophomore Oscar Smith quarterback Lonnie Andrews and senior running back Brandon Nesbit will lead the Tigers to their fifth state championship.

Final score prediction: Oscar Smith 30-27

8. Irmo vs. Northwestern (South Carolina)

Irmo quarterback A.J. Brand will take his dual-threat talents to Virginia Tech next season / Thomas Grant Jr.

6 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 14

I called an 80-point game between American Heritage and Jones, and this will beat that. Irmo and Northwestern can score in bunches, and the only loss between them this year is Irmo's 10-point defeat at Dutch Fork. Virginia Tech QB commit A.J. Brand will have a career night before heading to Blacksburg with Irmo's first state title since 1980.

Final score prediction: Irmo 48, Northwestern 42

9. Martinsburg vs. Spring Mills (West Virginia)

Spring Mills has been one of West Virginia's top high school football teams all season. / Spring Mills Football/Facebook

7 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 14

It's all you could want in a state championship game, as No. 1 goes up against No. 2. Spring Mills gets a shot at revenge after losing to Martinsburg 17-12 in the regular season, as the Bulldogs controlled the game on the ground. The new kid on the block gets the better of the established titan this time in a grind-it-out game.

Final score prediction: Spring Mills 19-17

10. Mater Dei vs. Concord De La Salle (California)

Mater Dei linebacker Nasir Wyatt (Oregon Ducks signee) is a player no quarterback wants to see this close. / Photo: Heston Quan

8 p.m. PT Saturday, Dec. 14

Calpreps has Mater Dei as a 41-point favorite here, but that seems a little ridiculous. Yes, 12-0 Mater Dei has looked like one of the best high school football teams of all time this season, but 11-0 De La Salle is no slouch, and the Spartans can really play defense. I'll say De La Salle goes for two to win it late after a Duece Jones-Drew touchdown, but Nasir Wyatt and crew get the stop and prevent an Al Michaels moment for the broadcast crew.

Final score prediction: Mater Dei 21-20

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-- Mike Swanson | swanson@scorebooklive.com | @sblivesports