High School

Predicting the winners of the 2024 Minnesota high school football playoff semifinals

See who High School on SI thinks will earn a spot in 2024 MSHSL Prep Bowl

Mike Randleman

Minneota running back Ryan Meagher is one of the best in Minnesota high school football in 2024
Minneota running back Ryan Meagher is one of the best in Minnesota high school football in 2024 / Jeff Lawler

Only four teams remain in each classification in the 2024 Minnesota high school football season. High School on SI has predictions for every semifinal of the

The MSHSL semifinals of the state tournament are November 14 to 16 at U.S. Bank stadium. High School on SI will have coverage throughout the 2024 Minnesota high school football state tournament.

Minnesota High School Football Semifinal Predictions

CLASS 6A

Anoka (8-3) vs. Minnetonka (10-2)

Section 5, No. 2 seed Anoka survived another thriller, winning its second straight one-score game to advance to the semifinals. The Tornadoes knocked off Section 3, No. 1 seed Lakeville North (10-2) 14-10 in what was closer to a home game for North a city away in Farmington.

Anoka held the Panthers to 159 yards of offense, a total running back Sam Ripplinger usually gets by himself.

Still, Minnetonka looks like the favorite in this one. The Skippers have been much more battle tested and have been a machine in the postseason. They’re coming off a 28-0 dismantling of Blaine in Osseo. Tonka was up 21-0 at halftime thanks to a dominating ground game.

Chase Conrad ran 23 times for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Caleb Francois did not have a great passing night, but he didn’t need one. He ran 23 times for 122 yards and a touchdown.

Prediction: Minnetonka 21, Anoka 7

Shakopee (10-1) vs. Maple Grove (11-0)

Section 6, No. 2 seed Shakopee is red-hot with six straight wins. The latest came over another hard charging team, 24-17 against Section 4, No. 1 Mounds View (8-3) at Spring Lake Park. The Sabers led 17-0 at halftime. The Mustangs scored the first 14 points after halftime and later pulled within seven with 2:25 to go, only for Shakopee to hang on.

T.J. Clark was the bell cow with 23 carries for 141 yards and a touchdown. Zach Docteur was the home run hitter with seven carries for 114 yards and a touchdown. The Sabers’ only loss this season was a tight one at Minnetonka.

Section 5, No. 1 seed Maple Grove, however, has been a class of its own this season. It was the only unbeaten in Class 6A in the regular season. The Crimson have been even better in the postseason. They steamrolled Eden Prairie (6-4) 34-0 in round two prior to whooping Section 6 No. 3 Edina (8-3) 42-12 in the quarterfinals.

Aside from a 21-14 win at defending 6A champ Centennial, Maple Grove’s beaten every other opponent by double digits. The Crimson led 21-0 at halftime last week and were up 35-0 before the Hornets got on the board. Kaden Harney’s passing line finished at 9-for-11 for 180 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions to go with a rushing touchdown.

Stud running back Charles Langama got to keep his workload light with eight carries for 108 yards and a touchdown. Maple Grove picked off one of the best quarterbacks in the state, Mason West, twice.

Prediction: Maple Grove 34, Shakopee 17

CLASS 5A

Chanhassen (8-3) vs. Elk River (10-1)

Chanhassen must be thrilled to be in this situation. With a new-look roster for 2024, it wasn’t a slam dunk that it’d be back in the state tournament, let alone win a game there. Especially after an 0-2 start to the season. The South No. 2 seed Storm punched a ticket to Minneapolis thanks to a 38-21 win over South No. 3 St. Thomas Academy (7-4), 38-21 in Osseo. STA took an early 8-0 lead and hung around for most of the game until a 10-0 fourth quarter for Chanhassen sealed it.

Nathan Ramler stood out with a 21-for-23 passing line for 262 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Kade Bush caught nine balls for 132 yards and a touchdown.

Chanhassen’s is playing well, but Elk River has been the more consistent and explosive team throughout the season. The Elks opened 2024 with a dominant 44-22 win at Chanhassen. They won their quarterfinals matchup vs. Monticello (8-3), 36-29.

The Elks took a while to get rolling, trailing 7-6 at halftime. They led 20-7 after three quarters and withstood the Magic pulling within one score three more times after that. Levi Harris ran 15 times for 126 yards for two touchdowns and Gavin Schmidt ran 18 times for 115 yards and three touchdowns.

I see Chanhassen keeping it closer this time, but 2022 champ Elk River will be a game away from its second title in three years.

Prediction: Elk River 41, Chanhassen 30

Alexandria (9-2) vs. Owatonna (11-0)

Chanhassen isn’t the only team in the semifinals that lost two in a row at some point this season. Alexandria fell in Weeks 7 and 8 by a combined 12 points to a pair of top 10 teams in Class 5A. The battle-tested Cardinals were better for it in the long run, getting revenge over Moorhead in the section finals and perhaps will get the chance to get another crack at Elk River in the Prep Bowl.

Speaking of battles, Alexandria escaped a 17-14 tussle in the quarterfinals in Monticello against Robbinsdale Armstrong (10-1). The Cards never led until a 31-yard field goal by future Golden Gopher Daniel Jackson split the uprights with 3:01 remaining to break the tie. Alexandria held a potent Falcons offense under 300 yards of offense and came up with an interception.

Owatonna hasn’t always put up style points, but kept its unbeaten season alive with a 22-21 overtime victory in the quarterfinals at Eastview as the South No. 1 seed against South No. 4 Cretin-Derham Hall (6-5). The Huskies trailed 14-7 at halftime and were tied at 14 at the end of regulation. After the Raiders scored a touchdown and kicked an extra point, Huskies head coach Jeff Williams went for the gusto by giving the rock to Nolan Ginskey, who got to the right edge and scraped in for the touchdown. Ginskey had just one carry for four yards in the game before becoming the hero.

Owatonna beat Chanhassen in Week 2 for a signature win, but Alexandria has a perhaps more impressive win against Moorhead (9-1), as well as the best athlete on the field in 6-foot-8 quarterback Chase Thompson.

Prediction: Alexandria 20, Owatonna 14

CLASS 4A

Marshall (10-1) vs. Becker (11-0)

North No. 1 seed Becker has the squad capable of claiming the program’s fourth state title in the last 20 years, all under legendary head coach Dwight Lundeen. The Bulldogs have been unrivaled all season, including in a 35-15 win in the state quarterfinals vs. North No. 4 Holy Angels (7-4). Becker used a strong third quarter to pull away from a tight game at halftime. Its ability to mix run and pass is suitable to indoor football coming up in the next two rounds.

South No. 3 seed Marshall looked mighty impressive in its 21-0 quarterfinals win against South No. 2 Byron (9-2), but the Tigers lack the overall strength of resume that the Bulldogs have. They played five Class 3A teams during the regular season and lost to one of them (Waseca, 20-14). Becker has wins over both 2023 Prep Bowl finalists (Rocori, Hutchinson), as well as previously unbeaten Princeton in the section finals.

Prediction: Becker 27, Marshall 13

Orono (9-2) vs. Totino-Grace (11-0)

This is an anticipated rematch after Totino-Grace eeked out an 11-8 victory at home in Week 7 thanks to a go-ahead touchdown with 39 seconds left. Orono’s defense has been super all year and held the Eagles 10 points under their next lowest point total. The North No. 3 seed Spartans have been rolling after two straight losses to close the regular season, including in a 48-21 win against North No. 2 Hermantown (9-2) in the state quarterfinals.

Their newfound momentum may not be enough to help them find revenge. T-G has been on cruise control in the postseason, outsourcing opponents 113-6. The South No. 1 seed Eagles pitched their third shutout of 2024 in the quarterfinals with a 24-0 win against South No. 4 Hill-Murray (9-2).

Prediction: Totino-Grace 20, Orono 12

CLASS 3A

Dassel Cokato (10-1) vs. Pequot Lakes (11-0)

South No. 2 seed Dassel-Cokato remains unbeaten against Class 3A competition after squeaking by South No. 3 Fairmont (8-3), 29-28, in the quarterfinals at Minneapolis Washburn. Fairmont led for much of the game, including 20-7 midway through the quarter. D-C scored 14 in a row, only for the Cardinals to retake a 28-21 advantage with 5:07 left.

The Chargers mounted an impressive game-winning drive capped by a 10-yard Caleb Smock touchdown with 25 seconds left in the fourth quarter, his fourth score of the game. With the defense geared toward Smock, Kobee Thielen ran in the game-winning 2-point conversion on a gutsy decision by head coach Ryan Weinandt.

Pequot Lakes had a little easier time getting to the semifinals, but not by much. The North No. 2 seed Patriots never trailed but found themselves in a 8-8 defensive struggle heading to the fourth quarter against North No. 3 Annandale (10-2). The Cardinals went up 15-8 early in the fourth quarter before a 3-yard touchdown rush by John Paul Elsenpeter and a 2-point conversion rush by Bryar Nordby gave Pequot Lakes a 16-15 lead with 7:40 remaining.

The Patriots defense came up with a stop with under five minutes to go. Nordby ran in for a 41-yard touchdown with 1:55 left, followed by another big defensive stand that was needed after the preceding 2-point conversion failed.

This was just the second one-score win of the season for Pequot Lakes, with the other coming over Class 4A North Branch. The Eagles rolled for most of the season and are the top-ranked team in the Class 3A QRF. Those factors give them the slight nod to advance to their first state title game appearance in program history.

Prediction: Pequot Lakes 16, Dassel-Cokato 15

Albany (11-0) vs. Stewartville (12-0)

We’ve been waiting all year for a team to come along that can keep up with defending champion Stewartville. Albany could finally be that team. 

The North No. 1 seed Huskies upheld their unbeaten season by winning 28-27 vs. North No. 4 Fergus Falls (10-1) in a tough quarterfinal matchup in Alexandria. Albany never trailed in this one, but never built more than a seven-point lead. It took a 2-point conversion stop after an Otters touchdown with 23 seconds left in the game to preserve the victory.

Boone Roemeling led the way completing 19 of 29 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Bennet Hylla had two interceptions on defense and caught five passes for 65 yards and a touchdown. His touchdown with 6:19 left in the third quarter proved to be the game-winner. Albany moved to 3-0 in one-score games and will have that to draw from it can do what no one else has done against Stewartville, and that’s keep it close.

South No. 1 seed Stewartville rolled in the quarterfinals, scoring the first 23 points of the game in a 40-14 victory over South No. 4 Holy Family (8-3) at Totino-Grace. Give credit to the Fire, who nearly scored as many points as the Tigers had previously allowed all season (19). Holy Family scored a touchdown with a second left in the first half to cut the deficit to 33-14 at the break, but Stewartville was never truly threatened.

The Tigers were paced by a 9-for-14 passing night by Vincent Wellik, who had two touchdowns and no interceptions. Parker Wangen was the main target with seven grabs for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Dylan Scanlan led a ground game that amassed over 200 yards on nearly seven yards a pop with 15 carries for 98 yards and a score.

Stewartville was able to coast through a relatively easy regular season and section playoff schedule, but it will have another chance to prove that it’s a notch or two above the state tournament competition with a convincing win this week.

Prediction: Stewartville 34, Albany 16

CLASS 2A

Jackson County Central (11-0) vs. Kimball (11-0)

Class 2A may have the most compelling state semifinals of any class with four unbeaten teams duking it out.

South No. 2 seed Jackson County Central rolled in its quarterfinal game, winning 34-7 against fellow unbeaten and South No. 3 Norwood Young America (11-1), 34-7 in Orono. The Huskies led 14-0 at halftime thanks in part to a 73-yard touchdown run by Roman Voss just 17 seconds into the game. JCC had a shutout going until 9:05 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Huskies have beaten all comers by 22 or more points this season.

Kimball’s best season in decades continued with a 38-0 demolition of North No. 4 seed Moose Lake/Willow River (9-3) in Brainerd. The North No. 1 Cubs scored five touchdowns in the first half to put this one out of reach early. Ronald Arnold rushed for three touchdowns and Brandon Henkemeyer ran for a touchdown and threw for another.

This one is one of the tougher games to pick.

Prediction: Kimball 28, Jackson County Central 27

Staples-Motley (11-0) vs. Chatfield (11-0)

North No. 3 seed Staples-Motley must’ve felt disrespected not making my Class 2A top five last week. With six unbeaten teams in the quarterfinals, someone had to be left out. The Cardinals showed they belong on the big stage by knocking off defending state champion and North No. 2 seed Barnesville (11-1), 46-44 in double overtime in St. Cloud. S-M stormed back from a 22-8 deficit after one quarter.

A 2-point conversion run by Eli Rutten won it after the Cardinal defense got a 2-point conversion stop on the previous drive. Colbe Tappe led with four touchdown rushes, including the game-tying score in double OT.

Aside from a forfeit win, S-M has won every game this season by double digits. It didn’t get a lot of respect in the QRF or state polls playing a lot of lower ranked teams, but S-M is legit.

South No. 1 seed Chatfield also had to win a white knuckler, downing South No. 4 Triton (8-3) 23-22 in Hastings. This was a back and forth matchup that resulted in a 2-yard touchdown run by Carson Rowland tying it up at 22 with 1:14 to go.

An extra point by Ross Stoehr, who also made a 28-yard field goal as time expired in the first half to give the Gophers a 9-7 halftime lead, proved to be the game-winner.

Prediction: Staples-Motley 33, Chatfield 30

CLASS 1A

Springfield (11-0) vs. Mahnomen/Waubun (11-0)

It was better late than never for South No. 3 seed Springfield to find its footing on offense. The Tigers didn’t light up the scoreboard until 56 seconds remaining in the third quarter of their quarterfinals matchup vs. South No. 2 Goodhue (11-1).

The 31-yard touchdown pass from Parker Kuehn to Madden Lendt pulled Springfield within 7-6. Kuehn ran in for a 2-yarder to tie it with 3:10 left. The defense got a stop, allowing Kuehn to find Isaac Fredin for a 32-yard game-winning touchdown with 21 seconds remaining to win it 20-14 at Rochester Mayo High School.

North No. 2 seed Mahnomen/Waubun also survived a defensive battle, taking down North No. 3 Deer River (9-2), 14-6 in Becker. The Thunderbirds drew first blood in the first quarter with an Easton Bevins 2-yard touchdown run.

Bevins 2-point rush proved important as Deer River’s 2-point try was snuffed out in the second quarter. A 1-yard touchdown rush by Blake McMullen added insurance in the fourth quarter.

Both teams have had impressive seasons playing disparate schedules. Both 1A semifinals are tough to call.

Prediction: Springfield 16, Mahomen/Waubun 12

Parkers Prairie (9-3) vs. Minnetoa (11-0)

In a semifinals round filled with alphas, Parkers Prairie provides an underdog story. The North No. 4 seed Panthers, who went unranked in my Class 1A top five last week, destroyed North No. 1 Upsala/Swanville (10-1), 33-0 at Rock Ridge. The Panthers’ rushing attack was machine-like, totaling 52 carries for 343 yards and four touchdowns.

Mason Boesl led with 18 carries for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Parkers Prairie only attempted one pass and, of course, it caught USA off guard for a 4-yard touchdown from Joseph Johnson to Chavous Wendt. This type of performance would have been hard to see coming after three straight losses from Week 5-7, including a 46-8 home loss to Pillager (7-2).

South No. 1 seed and SB Live’s top team in the class, Minneota (11-0), showed why it’s the favorite to win its third straight state championship after a 41-0 win vs. South No. 4 Lester Prairie (7-4), 41-0 in Jordan.

LP hung tough to keep it 13-0 at halftime before Minneota flexed its muscles with a 20-yard touchdown run in the third quarter by Destin Fier, two touchdown rushes by Ryan Meagher in the fourth, and lastly a 58-yard pick-six as a cherry on top by Chase Johnson.

Minneota will be challenged this week, but the Vikings will win their 32nd straight game.

Prediction: Minneota 28, Parkers Prairie 15

9-MAN

Hills-Beaver Creek (11-0) vs. Mountain Iron-Buhl (12-0)

Hills-Beaver Creek allowed Border West to score bookending touchdowns in their quarterfinals matchup in Buffalo. In between, the South No. 2 seed Patriots were dominant in their 34-14 victory over South No. 3 Border West (9-3).

Beau Bakken ran for two touchdowns in the first quarter. Jamin Metzger threw for a touchdown in the second and third quarter to help H-BC gradually pull away.

North No. 1 Mountain Iron-Buhl was also locked in a tight battle early in the quarterfinals in a scoreless battle through one quarter vs. North No. 4 Stephen-Argyle Central (10-2). An 80-yard touchdown run with 1:32 left in the first half by Caleb Rossi gave the Rangers a 14-0 lead at the break. Micaden Clines and Derik Dahl each added two touchdown rushes.

This matchup seems like a toss-up between two teams I had ranked at 1 and 2 last week.

Prediction: Hills-Beaver Creek 32, Mountain Iron-Buhl 29

Fertile-Beltrami (11-0) vs. Leroy-Ostrander-Lyle-Pacelli (12-0)

Fertile-Beltrami wasn’t caught flat footed against Cromwell-Wright (10-2) the way defending champion Nevis was in the previous round. The Falcons steamrolled the Cardinals, winning 48-7 in the quarterfinals in Moorhead. It was 34-0 by halftime. Isaiah Wright put up video game numbers, rushing 10 times for 301 yards and four touchdowns. F-B looks like a team that could break through for the program’s first ever state title, but it won’t be easy with three other unbeaten teams standing in the way.

South No. 1 seed LeRoy-Ostrander/Lyle-Pacelli saw F-B’s blowout win and raised it with a 50-0 blanking of South No. 4 Renville County West (8-4) in the quarterfinals at Kasson-Mantorville. This one was also a 34-0 game at halftime. Quarterback Camden Hungerholt did it all, rushing 23 times for 303 yards and four touchdowns and completing 13 of 24 passes for 168 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Carter Sweeney caught eight passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinal defense picked off two passes en route to the team’s first defensive shutout of the season. Putting up a zero is insanely hard in 9-man football.

This is one of the more difficult of the 14 total semifinal games to pick.

Prediction: Fertile-Beltrami 35, LeRoy-Ostrander/Lyle-Pacelli 32

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Mike Randleman
MIKE RANDLEMAN