Predicting the winners of the 6A-3A Texas high school football playoff semifinals

High School On SI is going on the record to make our predictions on the UIL Class 6A-3A games on Friday and Saturday

Argyle quarterback Maguire Gasperson looks to pass in a game against Lucas Lovejoy. / Michael Horbovetz

For 11-man football teams across the state, the trek to AT&T Stadium in Arlington will be down to four quarters for Texas high school football this weekend.

The penultimate weekend of football features a mix of traditional blue-blood powers but there are also some newcomers in the mix looking to make history.

There are six teams in the semifinals for the first time in school history: La Vernia, Canyon West Plains, Paradise, Woodville, Hamilton and Richmond Randle. The fourth round of the playoffs last week saw only three defending state champions stay alive in Duncanville, Malakoff and Gunter. 

Paradise, Woodville and Hamilton all played on Thursday night. The rest of the semifinal games are Friday and Saturday. 

Texas [UIL] high school football 2024 state tournament brackets, matchups and game times

We posted a 11-5 mark last week picking games.

Texas High School Football semifinals Predictions

CLASS 6A Division I

North Crowley Panthers (14-0) vs. Duncanville Panthers (13-0)

It’s a showdown that pits tons of Division I athletes against each other. North Crowley features WR Quentin Gibson (Colorado) and LB Jonathan Cunningham (Texas) against Duncanville’s stacked team with QB Keelon Russell (Alabama) and WR Dakorien Moore (Oregon). Gibson has 31 touchdowns on 81 catches for 1,721 yards. Moore has 1,322 yards on 67 catches and 18 touchdowns.  

North Crowley made it this far last year but lost to the Panthers and lost by 42. North Crowley made noise this year upsetting DeSoto, but that same squad lost by 22 to Duncanville.

Prediction: Duncanville 42, North Crowley 21

Galena Park North Shore Mustangs (14-0) vs. Austin Westlake Chaparrals (13-1)

Galena Park North Shore is one win away from a fourth straight trip to the state championship game — winning one of the past three, all against Duncanville. In the second win against Humble Atascocita, QB Kaleb Bailey threw for two scores and ran for two more. He was named the TD Club of Houston offensive player of the year on Wednesday. Westlake beat rival Austin Lake Travis for a second time this season. 

Westlake is used to making it this far but has lost two of the past three meetings against North Shore in this round. The win in 2021 was followed by winning the 6A Division II title. QB Rees Wise threw the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter against Lake Travis last week, a 24-17 win. 

Prediction: North Shore 34, Austin Westlake 17

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Class 6A Division II

Southlake Carroll Dragons (14-0) vs. Longview Lobos (12-2)

Carroll is looking to get back in the state finals for the first time since 2020, while Longview is looking to return for the first time since 2018. The Dragons will have to overcome a Longview team that knocked off DeSoto, 50-14, last week, meaning there will be a new state champion this year. 

Carroll has been finding ways to win close games despite injuries to two Division I running backs. WR-turned-RB Christian Glenn ran 15 times and scored 3 times last week. The senior is the son of the late Terry Glenn, a 12-year NFL veteran.

The Dragons have won close games in recent weeks and rallied from 14-down to beat Denton Guyer last week. 

Longview senior running back Kelvin Washington rushed for 298 yards and 5 touchdowns against DeSoto. If he can repeat that performance, it might be hard for the Lobos to be stopped. He became the school’s single-season all-time rushing leader with a 43-yard score. He has 2,221 going into this game.

The only in-state loss for Longview is a 45-44 loss to Dallas South Oak Cliff, a Class 5A Division II semifinalist. 

Prediction: Longview 49, Southlake 41

Summer Creek Bulldogs (12-2) vs. Austin Vandegrift Vipers (13-1)

Summer Creek has dominated each of its playoff games and is close to returning to the state finals again — with hopes of erasing memories of last year’s 74-14 loss to DeSoto. The Bulldogs’ defense has been tough giving up six touchdowns in the four wins. DT Josiah Pratt (6 sacks), DE Chad Woodford (12 sacks), DT Jashaud Johnson (7) sacks make it tough for any team to run. 

Vandegrift made the finals in 2022 and also lost to DeSoto. The Vipers are giving up 13.3 points per game and will provide a tough challenge to the Bulldogs’ offense. After giving up 49 points against Cedar Park, the Vipers have eight games of giving up a touchdown or less. 

Prediction: Summer Creek 45, Vandegrift 13 

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Class 5A Division I

Denton Ryan Raiders (13-1) vs. Highland Park Fighting Scots (13-1)

Both have won C5A-DI titles in the past — Ryan in 2020 and Highland Park in 2018. There is postseason history here with a semifinal showdown 2016, 2017 and 2018. Ryan is 0-3 in state semifinal games against Highland Park.

Running backs Nemo Warmate and Tre’Vaughn Reynolds have led the Ryan offense. Warmate has 1,213 yards and 20 scores, while Reynolds is nearing the 1,000-yard mark with 976 yards and 11 TDs. Ryan beat state champion Aledo last week, 31-21, in a rematch and is now 3-0 vs. Aledo in the postseason.

The Fighting Scots have scored 30 or more points in 12 straight games and outscored foes 158-78 during the postseason. QB Buck Randall is completing 63% of his passes and has thrown for 3,327 yards and 37 TDs.

Prediction: Highland Park 31, Denton Ryan 28

Angleton Wildcats (13-1) vs. San Benito Smithson Valley Rangers (12-2)

Angleton avenged its only loss of the season last week by beating District 11-5A rival La Porte by 3. That was after a 7-point loss on Nov. 1. RB JaMarcus Shockley has run for 1,489 yards and 15 TDs and has 3 more scores through the air. The Wildcats are in the semifinals for the fourth time in school history and a win puts them in the finals for the first time since 1958.

Smithson Valley, in the Comal ISD, is looking to return to the finals for the second year in a row. QB/LB Cade Spradling accounted for five touchdowns —  two rushing, threw for two touchdowns and had an 84-yard interception return for a touchdown. He completed four of six passes for 105 yards and ran for 110 yards on seven carries.

Prediction: Smithson Valley 24, Angleton 14

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Class 5A Division II

Argyle Eagles (13-1) vs. Dallas South Oak Cliff Golden Bears (12-2)

Argyle in the state semifinal has been almost an automatic win most of the time with a 6-1 record. However, the one loss was in a fog-filled 14-6 setback against South Oak Cliff in 2022.

Argyle has won 13 in a row, while the Golden Bears have won 12 in a row — after opening week losses to Class 6A Division I semifinalists Galena Park North Shore and Duncanville.

South Oak Cliff is looking to make it back to the state title for the fourth year in a row and dispatched defending state champion Port Neches-Groves last week. Behind Baylor signee DL Kamauryn Morgan and Arkansas signee LB Jayden Shelton, the Golden Bears are giving up just 12.7 points per game and 145 yards per game. 

Argyle is led by QB Maguire Gasperson, who has thrown for 2,833 yards and 27 touchdowns. 

Prediction: South Oak Cliff 28, Argyle 14

Richmond Randle Lions (14-0) vs. Boerne Greyhounds (11-3)

Randle is in the semifinals for the first time in the school’s short three-year varsity history. The Lions escaped last week with a 21-14 win in overtime against Iowa Colony after beating the same team 30-10 earlier in the season. Randle is headlined by 5-star recruit Landen Williams-Callis, a sophomore with 1,953 yards rushing and 41 TDs. The Lions have not allowed more than 14 points in any game this season. 

Boerne has a prolific offense led by sophomore Hank Hendrix. The four-star quarterback completed 24 of 29 passing for 435 yards and 5 TDs in a 65-50 win over Corpus Christi Miller last week. Since falling to 2-3 after a loss to Alamo Heights and Texas recruit Michael Terry III on Sept. 27, the Greyhounds have won 9 in a row. They have scored at least 38 points in each of those games during the stretch. 

Expect this to be a shootout.

Prediction: Boerne 42, Randle 35 

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Class 4A Division I

Amarillo West Plains Wolves (11-3) vs. Celina Bobcats (14-0)

In only the third year of varsity football, the Wolves are fifth round of the playoffs for the first time. They pulled an upset last week beating Stephenville, 42-35. QB Reid Macon had five combined touchdowns in the win against Stephenville, including 3 scores and 261 yards passing. WR/DB Kane White-Tinsley had a career-high 9 catches and 122 yards with a score. He also has 8 interceptions. 

Celina is trying to become the fourth UIL school to win nine state titles at the 11-man level — the last coming in 2007 in 3A Division II. Celina is led by a 1-2 punch in the running backs Harrison Williams and Logan Gutierrez. Williams has ran for 1,592 yards and 18 touchdowns, while Logan Gutierrez had 1,412 yards and 25 scores on the ground. The two have 12 touchdowns in four playoff games.

Prediction: Celina 35, West Plains 31 

Kilgore Bulldogs (12-2) vs. La Vernia Bears (11-3) 

Kilgore is in the semifinals for the first time since 2013, when it lost in the Class 4A Division I finals. The Bulldogs have two losses by a combined 5 points. They beat Tyler Chapel Hill for the second time this season last week — keeping Chapel Hill from returning to the state finals — with a 30-6 win. QB Kayson Brooks tossed three touchdowns to three different receivers in the win. 

The Bears are in its first semifinals after breaking the school’s 0-3 skid in the quarterfinal round. To reach this stage, La Vernia beat Bay City, 42-24. Back on Oct. 18, they lost to the same Bay City team, 40-21.

Junior RB Sean Garza ran 36 times for 205 yards and 4 scores in that win. The Bears have won seven in a row since the loss to Bay City. 

Prediction: Kilgore 42, La Vernia 14

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Class 4A Division II

Brock Eagles (13-1) vs. Carthage Bulldogs (13-1) 

In perhaps the lowest-scoring triple overtime you’ll see, Brock escaped with a 12-10 win over Graham last week at Tarleton State. The Eagles converted its 2-point conversion and the defense stopped Graham and flipped the results from a 38-0 loss earlier in the season. This is the fourth year in a row that Brock is in the semifinals and in 2022, they made the finals before losing to Franklin 17-14 in the 3A Division I finals. This is the eighth semifinal in the last nine years for the Eagles.

Carthage has won 13 in a row since losing to Class 4A Division II semifinalist Kilgore in Week 1. For the most part, the Bulldogs have dominated their foes, scoring 40 or more in 12 games. RB KJ Edwards is the No. 7-ranked recruit in the Class of 2026 on 247 Sports.

Prediction: Carthage 49, Brock 14

Waco La Vega Pirates (11-3) vs. Wimberley Texans (12-2)

After a 2-3 start, the Pirates righted the ship and have won 9 in a row heading into the semifinals. One of the biggest wins in that stretch was beating West Orange-Stark, 42-20 on Nov. 22. That flipped the result of a regular season loss and kept the season alive. La Vega is in the semifinals for the seventh time in school history and the first since 2019. The Pirates ran for six touchdowns — three by Bryson Roland — in a 48-30 win last week against Sealy.

Wimberley is in the semifinals for the fourth time in the past five years and made the finals twice in that span —2019 and 2022. Senior QB Cody Stoever combined for more than 400 yards in a 36-33 win over Sinton, rushing for three scores and passing for two more. It was his fourth straight 100-plus yard game. 

Prediction: Wimberly 35, La Vega 28

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Class 3A Division II

Wall Hawks (13-1) vs. Gunter Tigers (12-2)

Wall has won 12 in a row heading into the semifinals and has been dominated in the with a pair of 35-point wins the closest competition. After clinging to a 7-3 lead after the first quarter against Canadian, the Hawks scored the next 42 points to steamroll the Wildcats. QB Landon York completed 17 of 24 passes for 348 yards and 5 touchdowns. York has thrown for 3,468 yards and 45 touchdowns this season. This is Wall’s fifth trip to the semifinals, where they are 1-3 — reaching the finals in 2013.

Meanwhile, Gunter is in the semifinals for the ninth year in a row. Six of those times, the Tigers won to move to the state finals — winning four of those. Gunter has won two straight titles. Gunter has won 11 in a row coming into this game — with losses to a current semifinalist in Celina and a loss to a defending state champion in Anna. In eight of the team’s 12 wins, the defense has allowed a touchdown or less.

Prediction: Gunter 42, Wall 14