Predicting where No. 1 recruit Aaliyah Chavez will commit

As time ticks down until her decision, we take our best guess at which college the nation's top prospect will choose

Levi Payton | Mar 25, 2025

Lubbock Monterey's Aaliyah Chavez will make her college commitment on Tuesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. / Angela Piazza/USA Today Network via Caller-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The stage has been set. Soon, the proverbial hats will be lined up and the nation will be watching.

And soon - at approximately 2 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, March 25 - we will know where Aaliyah Chavez plans to play her college basketball.

Her initial six finalists, UCLA, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, LSU and South Carolina, will have their proverbial hats on the line when she makes her commitment live on ESPN's SCNext and Lubbock ISD's YouTube channel. Reports from multiple outlets in the past month have said both UCLA and LSU were no longer part of her recruitment, and that South Carolina had also taken a backseat to Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

Read more stories about Aaliyah Chavez's historic career here and here.

Chavez's family has seemingly refuted at least part of those claims, telling Pete Christy of the Lubbock Avalanche-Journal that South Carolina is still in the mix.

Just for fun, we thought we'd join the internet in predicting where the 2025 Gatorade National Player of the Year and McDonald's All-American will land.

Aaliyah Chavez holds the Class 5A Division II state championship girls basketball trophy on Saturday, March 1, 2025, at The Alamodome in San Antonio. / Angela Piazza/USA Today Network via Caller-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We'll briefly examine each candidate and give you our final prediction below.

Texas Tech

As the only unranked team among Chavez’s finalists, the Lady Raiders’ advantage in all of this is sharing her hometown of Lubbock. The biggest question here is how soon does Chavez expect to win? The Lady Raiders are 19-17 this year and are set to face Florida on Thursday in the third round of the WBIT.

Their roster has a pair of junior guards averaging double figures this season, as Jasmine Shavers averages 14.7 points and Bailey Maupin 13.7 to lead the team. No other player averages more than 5.3 points per game. Chavez would serve as the only recruit for Tech among the 2025 espnW HoopGurlz Top 100.

The biggest question surrounding the Lady Raiders’ program surrounds head coach Krista Gerlich. Per the terms of the last contract extension she signed, her current deal is slated to expire on March 30. Chavez has said she wants to play for a program with a coach that will be there for the duration of her career.

All the other finalists have extended their head coaches through at least what would be her junior season. If Chavez commits to Tech, don’t be surprised to see an extension for Gerlich. If it’s anyone else, they might be content with letting the former Lady Raiders playing legend walk on an expired deal.

Texas

Ranked No. 5 in the latest AP national poll, the Longhorns are 33-3 and in the Sweet 16 of the Women’s NCAA Tournament. A No. 1 seed, they will take on fifth-seeded Tennessee (No. 20 in the latest AP poll) on Saturday.

Led by sophomore forward Madison Booker, who averages 16.3 points per game, the Longhorns already have a talented crop incoming for the 2025-2026 season, and another Aaliyah. That would be Aaliyah Crump (6-foot-1 guard at Florida’s Montverde Academy), the No. 5 overall 2025 prospect.

Perhaps Texas coach Vic Shaefer just likes coaching players named Aaliyah? He’ll lose senior forward Aaliyah Moore after this season but could wind up with a frontcourt with two of the best Aaliyah’s in the country.

Shaefer has made his desire to coach Chavez apparent of late. He and his staff were seen watching from the sidelines at some of her final games with Lubbock Monterey in recent weeks, where he also caught up with Lady Plainsmen head coach Jill Schneider – a former Texas assistant.

Oklahoma

A team on the rise, the Sooners (27-7 and ranked No. 11 in the latest AP poll) just advanced to the Sweet 16 of the Women’s NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 with a blowout victory over Iowa on Monday.

The Sooners have already loaded up with a solid group of 2025 recruits that includes a pair from the HoopGurlz Top 100 in No. 50 Keziah Lofton (5-foot-11 guard; Bethany, Okla.) and No. 62 Brooklyn Stewart (6-2 forward; Pine Creek, Colo.).

Their top guard is senior Payton Verhulst, who is second on the team, behind junior center Raegan Beers, averaging 14.9 points per game. Freshman guard Zya Vann has given them good minutes this season and has averaged 7.0 points per game.

With recent buzz speculating Texas and Oklahoma had pulled to the front of her recruitment, Chavez created a buzz over the weekend when she attended Oklahoma’s first-round blowout over Florida Gulf Coast in Norman.

South Carolina

Dawn Staley is chasing more hardware and has her Gamecocks in the Sweet 16 yet again. They’re 32-3 this season and have a talented crop of recruits incoming next year, headed by No. 4 recruit Agot Makeer (6-foot-1 wing; Montverde Academy) and No. 22 Ayla McDowell (6-foot-2 wing; Cypress Springs, Texas).

Adding Chavez to that mix would be a swoon for Staley, a legend in her own right.

While there hadn’t been as much chatter about South Carolina after reports said the Gamecocks had backed off their pursuit, her family’s recent confirmation to the Avalanche-Journal that they’re still involved sparks questions that South Carolina could be a dark horse in this race.

UCLA

The top team in the land, UCLA is 32-2 and joins Texas, Oklahoma, South Carolina and LSU in the Sweet 16. They’ve already landed No. 2 overall recruit Sienna Betts (6-foot-4 forward; Grandview, Colo.) the younger sister of Lauren Betts.

While the Bruins were one of the first reported finalists to be “eliminated” from her recruitment, they still have a seat at the table on Tuesday. Maybe they’ll pull an upset?

LSU

The Tigers probably don’t have any more room after loading up with four top 30 recruits already. Three of those recruits are guards in No. 12 Divine Bourrage (5-foot-10; Davenport, Iowa), No. 13 ZaKiyah Johnson (6-foot; Sacred Heart Academy, Ken.) and No. 30 Isabella Hines (5-foot-9; El Dorado, N.M.).

They’re also adding Grace Knox, a 6-foot-2 wing from Etiwanda, Calif.

Like UCLA, the Tigers still have a spot at the table and, seemingly, a chance. And if a player of Chavez’s ilk were to stack Kim Mulkey’s scoreboard a bit more this spring, well, she’d probably be fine with that.

Prediction

With an elite player of Chavez’s ability, it’s easy to understand why each of these programs would be a fit.

Oklahoma has been buzzing since her visit on Saturday. Texas would be lethal with Chavez and Crump running things for years to come, and keeping the state’s top player home would be a big win.

Texas Tech doesn’t have the firepower or championship-ready team that the other programs have, but it’s home. Chavez’s father runs The Lab in Lubbock – where youngsters go to sharpen their basketball skills – a place near and dear to Chavez’s heart. The allure of being close to home, close to The Lab, and bringing a winning program back to her hometown are certainly reasons to stay.

South Carolina, LSU and UCLA are all perennial powers at this point who would only stand to get better with a player like Chavez on board.

Final prediction: Despite the late visit to Oklahoma, and it’s proximity to Lubbock in comparison to the other finalists, Chavez reaches for orange and stays home with the Texas Longhorns.

Download the SBLive App

To get live updates on your phone — as well as follow your favorite teams and top games — you can download the SBLive Sports app:

Download iPhone App | Download Android App

Published Mar 25, 2025|Modified Mar 25, 2025

LEVI PAYTON