Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Tuesday, July 30 (Bet on Corbin Burnes)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Toronto Blue Jays-Baltimore Orioles matchup on Tuesday.

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes. / Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

After splitting a doubleheader on Monday, the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles face off again on Tuesday night with ace Corbin Burnes on the mound for the O’s. 

Toronto could be a team that makes a move at today’s trade deadline, but if not, the Jays will look to turn around a slow start to the 2024 season and potentially get in the mix for a wild card spot. 

As for Baltimore, it could be in trouble in the AL East. The O’s are just half a game up on the New York Yankees, who have won three games in a row and dominated the MLB-leading Philadelphia Phillies on Monday. 

With Burnes on the mound, oddsmakers have set Baltimore as a massive favorite on Tuesday night. 

Let’s dive into the odds, probable pitchers and a prediction for this AL East matchup. 

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Blue Jays +1.5 (-125)
• Orioles -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline

• Blue Jays: +164
• Orioles: -198

Total

• 8.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Toronto: Chris Bassitt (8-9, 3.78 ERA)
• Baltimore: Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.45 ERA)

Blue Jays vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 30
• Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): MASN, MLB Extra Innings
• Blue Jays record: 50-57
• Orioles record: 63-44

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Key Players to Watch

Toronto Blue Jays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: The Blue Jays star had a two-homer game in the second matchup on Monday’s doubleheader, and he’s now up to 21 homers and 69 RBIs on the season while hitting an impressive .311. He is 3-for-9 in his career against Burnes, making him an interesting target in the prop market for hits or total bases. 

Baltimore Orioles

Corbin Burnes: All season long, Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.45 ERA and allowing three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his 21 starts. In two starts against Toronto, he’s allowed just two total earned runs across 13.0 innings of work. He’s a great bet on his earned runs prop on Tuesday. 

Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Rather than lay the price for the O’s to win this game, I’d rather take Burnes in the prop market given his dominance against the Jays – and just about everyone else in baseball – this season. 

Burnes has given up two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 21 starts, holding the Jays to just four hits across seven innings of one-run ball the last time he faced them. Toronto has just 10 hits and two runs off of Burnes in 13.0 innings this season. 

The advanced numbers for Burnes are extremely impressive this season, and he’s found a way to keep his opponents in check despite constantly pitching deep into games and seeing the order through several times. 

Here’s how he fares in some key advanced categories in 2024:

• Pitching Run Value: 100th percentile
• Expected ERA: 84th percentile
• Chase Percentage: 89th percentile
• Hard Hit Percentage: 94th percentile

I expect Burnes to build on his impressive season in this one. 

Pick: Corbin Burnes UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-175)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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