Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Bryce Harper Breaks Out of Slump on Saturday)

Reed Wallach | Jul 27, 2024

Jul 22, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) hits a two run home run against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports / Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Saturdays MLB card presents us with plenty of home run hitting opportunities on the card.

Bryce Harper is looking for his All-Star form out of the break, and there is a great chance for him to do just that on Saturday against the Guardians.

Meanwhile, fellow All-Star Corey Seager is showing value as a home run hitter on Saturday with a lefty specialist Lourdes Gurreil proving as a valuable long shot bet on Saturday night.

Here's our three favorite home run bets on Saturday's slate.

Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, Saturday July 27th

• Corey Seager (+420)
• Bryce Harper (+400)
• Lourdes Gurriel (+600)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Corey Seager

Seager has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, even if his numbers don’t look as good as on paper. He is in the 91st percentile in hard-hit percentage and 96th percentile in xSLG, posting an astonishing mark of .551. That number far outpaces his actual slugging percentage of .477, and I expect home runs to come in bunches for the left handed slugger. 

He is facing Kevin Gausman on Saturday afternoon, who has fallen off a cliff in terms of generating movement on his pitches, 11th in pitching run value and allowing a ton of hard contact (19th percentile). 

Seager has owned righties, slugging .522 with 15 home runs, and I like his odds to go deep on Saturday.

Bryce Harper

Carlos Carrasco’s lack of movement on his pitches, or velocity at all, is likely to present issues against a hitter like Harper. 

Harper is as dangerous as they come at the plate, and Carrasco’s inability to blow pitches past hitters sets him up for trouble on Saturday. Carrasco is in the 12th percentile when it comes to fastball velocity and is getting no movement at all, ranking in the first percentile in terms of pitching run value. 

This is a nightmare scenario when facing a hitter like Harper, who is at +400 due to a .161 batting average since the All-Star break. However, given the matchup, I’m jumping at the inflated odds. 

Lourdes Gurriel

Gurriel has some severe differences in splits, which sets up nicely for him as he faces soft tossing Marco Gonzales on Saturday night at home. 

The righty is hitting .323 against southpaws with a slugging percentage of .517. He has had no trouble finding power at Chase Field, crushing seven of his 13 homers at home. 

Gonzales has only made five starts this season, and his fastball velocity ranks in the fourth percentile as he sits with an incredibly ERA mark, 2.70 vs. an xERA of 5.45. 

I think Gurriel catches the lefty early. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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