Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Can't Miss Long Shot Home Run Bet on Thursday)

Reed Wallach | Jul 25, 2024

Jul 22, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Detroit Tigers second baseman Colt Keith (33) rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the ninth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

While Thursday has a condensesd MLB card, there are plenty of advantageous matchups for hitters.

There are sluggers like Ryan O'Hearn and Randy Arozarena who are primed to go deep, but a long shot like Colt Keith is very much in play given his underlying metrics and emerging form as a key cog in the Tigers lineup.

The rookie second baseman highlights our daily dinger slate on Thursday, keep reading to find out who fits the bill to go deep on Thursday.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday, July 25th

• Ryan O’Hearn (+450)
• Colt Keith (+800)
• Randy Arozarena (+470)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ryan O’Hearn 

There are plenty of Orioles that can torch the Marlins porous pitching staff, but O’Hearn is my choice for Thursday. 

Left handed hitters have torched Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, posting an OPS of .621 with 10 home runs against him (he’s allowed 15 in total). 

O’Hearn particularly thrives against righties, posting slashes of .282/.352/.484 against those types of pitchers with all 12 homers on the year. 

He is a devastating power threat, ranking in the 93rd percentile in xSLG, so he is underperforming relative to his power. 

I think O’Hearn is a great bet to go deep on Thursday given this pitching matchup against a right hander. 

Colt Keith 

Keith crushes right handers. The rookie may not be known for his power just yet, but the 22-year-old has hit all 10 home runs against righties with a slugging percentage of .406. 

He’ll draw Gavin Williams of the Guardians, who has shown middling results in limited big league action with an xERA of 5.31. 

While the homers haven’t been coming in at a high clip, Keith has found his stride in July, hitting .328 with six dingers in the month. He has settled into his every day role, set to have the most plate appearances in a month of his young career, and I like him as a long shot to go deep against a vulnerable rookie. 

Randy Arozarena 

Arozarena is playing his best out of the All-Star break, hitting .381 with three home runs and slugging percentage nearing .1000 (.952). 

He will face Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays on Thursday, who he has tallied six hits against in 14 at bats, four of which have gone for extra base hits. With his current form, I’m confident the ball can leave the yard against Bassitt, who has been a negative regression candidate for much of this season. 

Arozarena is on a roll, and I’m going to keep backing him to leave the yard. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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