Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Freddie Freeman Highlights Friday's Slate)

Reed Wallach | Jul 19, 2024

Jul 3, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) rounds the bases after hitting a three-run home run in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball returns from the All-Star break on Friday, and who can we bank on to get the final stretch of the regular season started with a home run?

I have three targets on Friday night, including Freddie Freeman, who will look to keep the Dodgers right in the mix for the top spot in the National League, as well as rookie James Wood, who will look to cash in on some strong underlying metrics.

Here's my favorite home run prop bets for the first night back on the diamond.

Best Home Run Prop Bets for Friday, July 19th

• James Wood (+630)
• Ryan McMahon (+520)
• Freddie Freeman (+440)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

James Wood

Wood has struggled a bit since getting called up to the big leagues, but he still has a ton of promise. 

He’s only hitting .240 on the year, but is making plenty of hard contact, including 58% against righty pitching. He’ll face a soft tossing righty in Frankie Montas, who has been destroyed by hard contact this season, ranking in the 27th percentile. 

Wood has shown he can make hard contact, but has only hit one home run in 53 at bats, I think his underlying metrics indicate that a power surge is coming, I’ll bet on it starting in the first game back from the break. 

Ryan McMahon

Hitting at Coors Field makes for a ton of favorable hitting conditions for Rockies players, including McMahon, who is in the 97th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 86th percentile in barrel percentage. 

He also crushes lefties, slugging .470 against southpaws and has hit five home runs in about half of the at bats relative to righties, which he is no slouch against with nine home runs. 

McMahon will face Giants starter Kyle Harrison, who is in the bottom 10 percentile in terms of hard-hit percentage, which is a dangerous stat at Coors Field. 

Freddie Freeman 

Freeman has been quiet for his standards, but has still be performing at an elite level, posting .291/.395/.492 slashes with 14 homers on the season. He has power to all fields, but the lefty really thrives against right handed pitching, hitting .320 with a .548 slugging percentage. 

He’ll face a sturdy righty in Nick Pivetta, but he is vulnerable with a high flyball rate as he ranks in the sixth percentile in flyball rate. 

I think Freeman, with his ability to generate hard contact against right handed pitching, can yield a homer on Friday.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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