Orioles vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for Wednesday, July 24

Here's why you should fade Miami Marlins starter Edward Cabera on Wednesday night.

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. / Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles have squandered some chances to grow their lead in the AL East, losing seven of their last 10 games to fall to 60-40 – but they still have a 1.5-game lead on New York. 

The O’s will look to get back on track from Tuesday’s loss when they face the lowly Miami Marlins on Wednesday evening. Miami has the worst record in the National League, and it will rely on struggling youngster Edward Cabrera on the mound tonight. 

Meanwhile, the O’s will have pitching prospect Chayce McDermott make his Major League debut on Wednesday. 

Chayce McDermott will start tomorrow for the Orioles, Brandon Hyde says

— Andy Kostka (@afkostka) July 24, 2024

A fourth round pick in the 2021 draft, McDermott will look to make the most of his opportunity and potentially find a way to stick in the banged-up Baltimore rotation. 

Here’s a look at the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for Wednesday night’s matchup. 

Orioles vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

• Orioles -1.5 (+130)
• Marlins +1.5 (-155)

Moneyline

• Orioles: -130
• Marlins: +110

Total

• 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Orioles vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Baltimore: Chayce McDermott (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
• Miami: Edward Cabrera (1-3, 7.36 ERA)

Orioles vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 24
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Florida, MASN
• Orioles record: 60-40
• Marlins record: 36-65

Orioles vs. Marlins Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson: A candidate to win the AL MVP award this season, Henderson has five hits in four games since the All-Star break, pushing his season-long batting average to .287 to go along with 28 homers and 63 runs batted in. He should fare well against Cabrera (7.36 ERA) on Wednesday. 

Miami Marlins

Edward Cabrera: After posting a 3.01 ERA in 2022 and a 4.24 ERA in 2023, Cabrera has taken a step back in 2024 in his first eight outings. He has a 7.36 ERA, and the Marlins righty has not made it through five innings in his last five starts. He did look better in his last outing, but Cabrera is a shaky pitcher to bet on at this point in 2024. 

Orioles vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick 

This is a tough matchup to handicap since McDermott is making his first MLB start, so I’m going to focus on a prop for tonight’s game. 

Cabrera is the focus for this prop, as I think he’s going to fall short of his outs recorded number against a tough Baltimore offense. 

Not only are the O’s the No. 2 offense in baseball in terms of OPS, but they have the most home runs, the fourth-most runs scored and are No. 2 in OPS against right-handed pitching alone in 2024. 

Since returning to the Marlins’ rotation on July 7, Cabrera has thrown 3.2, 3.1 and 4.2 innings, allowing 15 hits and 11 runs – good for a 7.71 ERA. 

He hasn’t pitched five full innings since his second start of the 2024 season, and I expect the O’s to get to Cabrera early and often due to his lack of control (20 walks in 33.0 innings this season). The youngster has a 1.66 WHIP, which is extremely concerning against an offense that has capitalized all season like Baltimore’s. 

Rather than taking the O’s to win with a rookie on the mound, I’ll fade Cabrera on Wednesday. 

Pick: Edward Cabrera UNDER 14.5 Outs Recorded (+125)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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