Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Back Aaron Nola, Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez tonight)

Jennifer Piacenti | Jul 19, 2024

Jul 5, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is back!

Here are a few plus money props to consider for tonight’s slate.  All odds from DraftKIngs.

Aaron Nola over 6.5 strikeouts (+105)

Aaron Nola over 18.5 outs (+165)

Even though Nola is pitching at a career-low 8.72 K/9 this season, and even though that number is even lower when he is away (8.06 away vs. 9.22 at home),  I still like the plus-money here vs. the Pirates.   Nola is coming off three games with 8+ strikeouts right before the All-Star Break. He faced the Dodgers, Braves and Marlins in those matchups- all of whom have a lower K-rate this season than the Pirates.   Pittsburgh’s 24.2% K-rate vs. right-handed pitching is the sixth-highest in the league.   

I also really like this payout for Nola to make it into the seventh inning. 

Nola has the fourth-most innings pitched this season (119 ⅔) and he’s made it past the sixth inning in eight of his 19 starts this season, including pitching a complete game vs. the Mets at Citi Field.  The Pirates were hot the first few weeks of July, but they still have a sixth-highest strikeout rate this season and the tenth-fewest runs per game.    Nola will be well-rested, so it’s a good spot to take a shot on the plus-money. 

Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases (+115)

Schwarber has been hitting lefties better than righties all season.   He is hitting .333 vs. southpaws and only .199 vs. righties. Tonight, he faces lefty Martin Perez who has an ERA of 5.16 this season with a max exit velocity allowed in the bottom 2% of the MLB.

Schwarber has a max exit velocity in the Top 2% of the league, and he has the third-most hits (44) vs. left-handed pitching this season. That includes11 extra base hits with an OPS of .981. 

Yordan Alvarez Homerun (+260)

Over 1.5 total bases (-105)

If you want to bet on a home run tonight, consider Alvarez who has 3 homeruns in just 15 at-bats vs. Luis Castillo. He comes out of the All-Star break on a heater, too. Alvarez has 83 total bases including ten homers and ten doubles since June 1, while also batting .339. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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