Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Jackson Merrill's Rookie of the Year Campaign Continues to Strengthen)

Reed Wallach | Aug 22, 2024

Aug 21, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) hits a two-run home run against the Minnesota Twins during the eighth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Jackson Merrill has become the odds on favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, yet the player prop market continues to give plenty of betting opportunity on him.

Merrill is in line to keep building up his ROY case on Thursday, while Corbin Burnes Cy Young hopes are all but finished, and it won't be easier on Thursday as I look to fade him in what could be another poor start for him.

Here's three player props I'm betting on Thursday.

Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, August 22nd

• Nick Lodolo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)
• Corbin Burnes UNDER 18.5 Outs (-144)
• Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Nick Lodolo OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)

Lodolo is a promising arm in the Reds rotation, and draws a favorable matchup against the Pirates, who are striking out at the highest rate in the big leagues since the calendar flipped to August. 

Lodolo’s strikeout rate is in the 60th percentile, and while his strikeout markets are down over the last two starts, he faced two elite offenses in the Royals and Brewers (six total strikeouts over the last two starts). 

Against a Pirates team that is free swinging, and struck out eight times against the lefty last time he faced Pittsburgh, I’ll go with the over on Thursday.

Corbin Burnes UNDER 18.5 Outs (-144)

Burnes has been struggling since the All-Star break, going under this mark in four of six starts with an ERA of 5.40. 

He now faces a disciplined Astros lineup that is hitting the ball incredibly well. The team is hitting at a top 10 level since the All-Star Game, eighth in the big leagues, and is striking out a bottom 10 rate as the team continues to work pitch counts and also generate hits. 

Can Burnes struggles continue and we see another abbreviated start? I’ll take him to stay at six innings which has become the norm for him this season in Baltimore. 

Jackson Merrill OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

The now favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, Merrill should be able to keep up his fine play on Thursday at home. 

Merrill is hitting .333 since the All-Star break while posting an OPS of 1.024. What’s crazy is, over the balance of the season, he should be hitting even better with more power. He has an xSLG in the 94th percentile at .522 against his actual slugging percentage of .491. 

The rookie sensation has at least a hit in six straight games, including a double in two of the last three. 

He is putting the ball in play at a high clip, he has a strikeout rate below 18% (73rd percentile), and is hitting it hard. Two hits or an extra base hit feels attainable on Thursday against a struggling Luis Severino, who has struggled against lefty hitters and has a strikeout rate of only 25%. 

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