Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Ketel Marte and Hunter Brown Show Betting Value on Tuesday)

Jennifer Piacenti | Jul 30, 2024

Jul 24, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) delivers against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports / D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

We are back with some bold player props for tonight’s action.

Let’s have some fun. 

I'm targeting a pitcher in Hunter Brown, who has been among the best in baseball for two months now as well as a dangerous hitter in Ketel Marte. Let's get to it!

Hunter Brown over 6.5 K (-115) at DraftKings

Hunter Brown over 18.5 outs (+150)

We are going bold today with these correlated bets. Brown has been striking batters out at a rate of 9.63 per ning this season, and he has struck out seven or more in eight of 20 starts.   Though that is less than half, the Pirates are striking out at the seventh-highest clip this season (24.2%) and struck out 11 times vs. the Houston bullpen last night.

And that is what leads us to our next bet.    The Houston bullpen will be tired.   Brown has only pitched past the sixth inning once this season. However, he has pitched through the sixth for 12 consecutive starts.    

The Astros will need Brown to go as deep into this game as possible. If his stuff is working and he’s punching batters out, he should be able to keep his pitch count low enough to make it into the seventh.  Yes, this is bold.   But, that’s what makes it fun. 

Ketel Marte RBI (+130) at BetMGM

Ketel Marte vs. lefties is a cheat code.  So much so, that it’s hard to find them in plus money at all anymore.  We successfully played his hitting props last night, and we are going to play them again today. 

I like Marte to go over 1.5 total bases (-170) and we even like him to go over 2.5 hits, runs+RBI (-105), but I’m going to go more bold and play his RBI prop for +130 at Bet MGM.

No player has more RBI (34) vs. left-handed pitching this year, and he had three last night, including a home run.  Lefty Patrick Corbiin has a road ERA of 5.52 and his exit velocity, xSLG, and hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom 5% of MLB.   We are betting that even the hitters at the bottom of the order can get on board for Marte tonight. 

Marte is hitting .417 with two homers and four RBI in 12 career at-bats vs. Corbin.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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