Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Red Sox Keep Handing Losses to Slumping Yankees)

Reed Wallach | Jul 27, 2024

Jul 26, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (43) runs the bases after hitting a two-run home run against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday brings a loaded MLB slate that starts in the afternoon and runs late into the evening with a doubleheader as well.

Most eyes will be on the nationally televised matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox as the two rivals look to get a leg up on one another, but enter in way different form. New York has been on a two months-plus slide, and th eed Sox have closed the gap to just a few games now.

Can the Red Sox, who won on Friday against its rival, win again?

Here's our full betting preview for every game on Saturday's slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Rangers vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-135)

Michael Lorenzen remains untrustworthy as he has a 3.53 ERA that is supported by a 4.78 xERA. 

While the Rangers offense has the edge on the Blue Jays, I’m going to side with veteran Kevin Gausman, who hasn’t had his best stuff all season, but is enjoying his best month of the season to date, posting a 3.66 ERA. 

Padres vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (+100)

Michael King has pitched like a fringe Cy Young candidate all season, posting a 3.28 based around a strong set of offspeed pitches that has yielded a ton of soft contact. 

King has an average exit velocity of 85%, which ranks in the 98th percentile as he continues to pitch around batters at an elite clip, getting batters to chase at a top 70 percentile.

I’ll trust him as a slight underdog against an Orioles team in shaky form since the All-Star break, just 3-4 since the break.

Reds vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+100)

The Reds won the opening game of this weekend set in extra innings, and the first for the Rays in the post-Randy Arozarena era. I’ll go back to Cincinnati on Saturday with another left hander on the mound in Andrew Abbott. 

The Rays are bottom 10 in the big leagues in OPS against left handed pitching, so the short-handed lineup will continue to struggle on Saturday.

Braves vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (-120)

The Mets are rolling and I see no reason to stop backing this team against a spiraling Braves team. 

Atlanta’s injuries are mounting across the roster and its starting to show with a 1-6 record since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Mets can do no wrong, 5-2 since the mid-summer classic and hoping to get Tyloer Megil into form for a stretch run. 

Megil will make his first start in about a month against a Braves team hitting .213 since the All-Star break. 

Guardians vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-160)

Carlos Carrasco’s diminished fastball is a big issue heading into his start against the Phillies, who is striking out batters at a bottom quarter percentile in the big leagues. With fewer strikeouts comes more contact for a Phillies lineup that is top five in OPS this season. 

Stick with the home favorite at Citizens Bank Park.

Twins vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (+100)

The Twins are uniquely able to hit left handed pitching, which makes for a strong underdog bet on Saturday against AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal. 

Minnesota is the best hitting team against lefties, tops in OPS against southpaws, and will have plenty of firepower on the mound with Joe Ryan toeing the rubber. 

Detroit doesn't have the offense to keep up with Minnesota, who should be able to plate a few runs against Skubal and pull the minor upset. 

Rockies vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+180)

I’ll take a flier on the Rockies as big underdogs on Saturday as Blake Snell remains untrustworthy, just a year removed from his NL Cy Young campaign. 

Snell’s strikeout pitch is nonexistent relative to prior seasons, his lowest mark since 2017 at 25% with a walk rate still north of 10%. He has an ERA of 5.83 that is supported by an xERA of 3.55, but I can’t trust him given his drop in production in the strikeout department. 

The Rockies offense is capable against lefties, right around the big league average in OPS, so I’m comfortable betting on them at a massive price to pull an upset. 

Marlins vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+135)

The Marlins have been on a roll since the All-Star break, eighth in OPS against formidable competition like the Mets, Orioles and now Brewers, and I’m going to keep bank on the Fish to keep it rolling on Saturday against Milwaukee with back-of-the-rotation arm Aaron Civale on the mound. 

Civale’s ERA is a bit higher than expectation, 5.00 vs. 4.20, but his inability to generate a ton of movement on his pitches, ninth percentile in terms of run value, makes it tough to stomach backing him at this price tag against an in-form Marlins team.

I’ll back the underdog on Saturday night. 

Dodgers vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (+115)

Los Angeles is an underdog again against the Astros after losing the series opener 5-0, but I’m going back to the well with a likely extended outing from the Astros bullpen.

Ronel Blanco has been a capable starter for much of this season, posting a 2.75 ERA while pitching to a ton of soft contact, but he hasn’t been able to go long into starts, failing to pitch more than six innings in half of his last 10 starts. 

If Blanco is pulled early, the Astros below average bullpen may run into problems against a Dodgers lineup that is tops in OPS this season. 

Further, Justin Wrobleski may be an unproven product with only three big league starts under his belt, but the left hander will have favorable splits against the Astros, who is about league average in OPS against left handed pitching. 

Cubs vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-120)

Is Seth Lugo in the Cy Young race? The right hander has the best adjusted ERA in baseball while being as good as any pitcher in the big leagues at generating soft contact. He has an ERA of 2.38 while limiting his walks to just two batters per nine innings. 

He’ll face a limited Cubs lineup that is circling the drain on the season, losers of seven of the last 10 games. Chicago will also run into a buzzsaw that is the Royals at home, 36-20 at Kauffman Stadium. 

Nationals vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+115)

I’ll happily fade Kyle Gibson of the Cardinals, who has an xERA of 4.81, far higher than his ERA of 3.99. He is striking out more batters, nearly three percent higher than his career strikeout average, but he is also walking far more batters, nearly 10%. 

With limited control, means more potential baserunners, which can lead to a high scoring affair. 

Meanwhile, Nationals right hander has been in fine form for much of this season, posting a 3.44 ERA while improving his strikeout rate to 21%, about league average, while slicing his walk rate in half. 

Give me the Nats as small underdogs.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (-105)

The Yankees' struggles continued on Friday, losing 9-7 in Boston, and I’ll fade them yet again on Saturday. 

Kutter Crawford has had the Yankees number in his short big league career, pitching to a 1.96 ERA in eight starts against New York. 

The Red Sox are the better team at the moment, back them at home. 

Mariners vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-150)

Bryan Woo continues to be an emerging star in the big leagues, posting an ERA of 2.54 that’s backed up by a 2.51 xERA. With his pinpoint control (he has a 99th percentile walk rate), the White Sox stand little chance against the Mariners starter. 

Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-170)

The Diamondbacks feast on lefty pitchers, seventh in OPS against southpaws, so I trust the home favorites to take care of business against the Pirates at home with soft tossing lefty Marco Gonzales set to start for the Buccos. 

Athletics vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+105)

The Angels are in a rare spot as a favorite, only 5-9 this season, and I’m not trusting Tyler Anderson against an A’s team with far more pop in the lineup. 

The A’s are the best hitting lineup in baseball since the All-Star break and I’m backing them as small underdogs. 

Rockies vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-200)

In the second game of the double header for these two, I’ll stick with the home favorite Giants. 

There can be plenty of variance before this game, but Hayden Birdsong has looked the part in five starts, posting a 3.55 with a popping fastball. 

With some questions heading into this game, I’ll stick to the better pitcher.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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