Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Why You Can't Trust Paul Skenes as Favorite)

Reed Wallach | Aug 22, 2024

Aug 16, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Seattle Mariners during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It's travel day for a handful of MLB teams, but we still have a bevy of games to comb through on the Thursday card.

Paul Skenes and the Pirates have seen some of its shine come off as the season has progressed, and many are watching the rookie's starts carefully with how the team handles his usage moving forward. Will Skenes recapture his early season form? Or are the Pirates going to ease him through the rest of the season as the team is out of the postseason race?

Here's how I'm betting Skenes start against the Reds as well as the entire MLB slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-175)

New York has its ace back. 

Gerrit Cole is back to his Cy Young ways after missing the beginning of the season, allowing three earned runs in his last three starts, posting a 1.59 ERA with 22 strikeouts. 

The Guardians offense has come on tough times, and while the Yankees lineup has depth concerns, the duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge should be able to do the heavy lifting en route to a series ending victory. 

Rockies vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+110)

Two teams playing for next year meet in Washington D.C., and I can’t get behind Patrick Corbin as a favorite, even against the struggling Rockies. 

Colorado is the far worse team, but there’s a case to be made Corbin is the worst full time starter in the big leagues this season, posting a 5.92 ERA with a third percentile hard-hit percentage. 

At plus money, I’ll grab Colorado. 

Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-120)

The Brewers are consistently putting the ball in play. The team is above league average in limiting strikeouts and ranks seventh in on-base percentage. 

Against a limited arm like Miles Mikolas, I believe the Cardinals are going to struggle keeping Milwaukee off the basepaths and getting a handful of run scoring opportunities. 

St. Louis may be the home team, but Freddy Peralta and the Brewers pitching staff should be able to keep down a bottom 10 hitting lineup in the month of August. 

Tigers vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (+170)

This is a play on a big underdog more than anything. 

The Cubs have left hander Justin Steele on the mound, but despite his best efforts to recapture his Cy Young contender form, his ERA is at 4.25 since the All-Star break with a big uptick in walk rate. 

The Cubs are only 30-31 as a favorite this season and can’t justify this price tag. 

Rays vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+105)

Oakland is a top 10 hitting team against left handed pitching, so I like this matchup against Jeffrey Springs, who may remain on a pitch count through the rest of the season. 

The Athletics can get off to a good start against Springs and use its league average offense since the All-Star break to grab an underdog victory. 

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+120)

The Pirates have fallen out of the postseason mix, and that can change how the Pirates handle rookie sensation Paul Skenes, who is approaching 100 innings on the season (98). 

Skenes has seen his velocity dip and his ERA increase, going up from 1.90 before the All-Star break to 3.13 since in five starts as his strikeout rate has plummeted about 10%.

If the Pirates manage Skenes workload more, and give more bullpen opportunities, the Pirates are not justifying this price tag. 

Bet the Reds on Thursday. 

Angels vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-155)

Toronto is hitting like a top 10 team in August, looking more like the offense the team had hoped to be this season. 

Against a soft tossing Griffin Canning, I fancy the Blue Jays to secure a win at home against an Angels team that is hitting like a bottom five lineup this month. 

Astros vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (+130)

Corbin Burnes Cy Young hopes are fading in his first season with Baltimore, and I believe he can continue to trend in the wrong direction given his recent form. He has an ERA of 5.40 since the All-Star break and now faces a Houston team that is hitting like a top 10 team in the month of August and emerging as a serious threat in the American League yet again. 

I’ll take the big price tag with a quality team against a struggling pitcher. 

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-105)

Despite losing pace as the best team in the big leagues, the Phillies offense remains a top five offense in the month of August. 

The Braves offense has been banged up all season, but the unit has remained formidable against lefties, sixth in OPS. 

However, I’m going to take the Phillies with southpaw Cristopher Sanchez on the bump, an elite arm at generating soft contact, 85th percentile in hard-hit rate. 

Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-165)

The Padres have been arguably the best team in baseball since the All-Star break, and I like the team to pick up a series opening win at home against a Wild Card contending Mets team.

Luis Severino has fallen on tough times since the All Star break, having his ERA increase from 3.78 to 4.36.

Against an elite arm like Dylan Cease, who has a 1.62 ERA since the midsummer classic, I like San Diego to keep it rolling at PETCO Park.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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