Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Back the Astros, Red Sox, and Padres as Road Underdogs)

Jennifer Piacenti | Jul 19, 2024

Jul 7, 2024; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) singles during the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Here we go! It's the second half of the MLB season, and the trade deadline is just around the corner.

It's the dog days of summer, so let's back some road dogs with playoff hopes tonight - all of whom are in plus money.

Let's have some fun.

Best MLB Bets for Friday, July 19th

• Astros (+114) vs, Mariners
• Red Sox (+120) vs. Dodgers
• Padres (+114) vs. Guardians

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Astros vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Yes, it’s true that the Mariners lead the AL West and have a better record vs. the Astros this season (5-2); however, they haven’t been particularly successful vs. Hunter Brown, who gets the start for Houston tonight. 

In 10 ⅓ innings pitched this season vs. the Mariners, Brown has allowed just three runs while striking out 14.    Don’t let Brown’s ERA fool you. After a tough start to the season, Brown has been one of the best pitchers in MLB since May 1 with an ERA of just 2.75, seven wins, and 81 strikeouts.  

Luis Castillo gets the start at home against the Astros tonight. Castillo has been uneven this season, but he has been better at home. In his only start against the Astros this year, he allowed two earned runs and struck out six.

I’ll call the pitching matchup a coin flip.  

Offensively, however,  the Astros are far superior to the Mariners.  

The Mariners are hitting an MLB-worst .219 while the Astros are hitting an MLB-best .262. The Mariners also have a league-worst 28.2% strikeout rate, while the Astros’ 18.4% rate ranks second in MLB. 

Seattle ranks 28th in the league with just 3.87 runs scored per game this season, while the Astros are top-10 with 4.76. 

If the Mariners are to win this one, it’s likely to be in a pitcher’s duel.    

I’ll take the chance on the road dogs for plus money. If the Astros win tonight, they will tie for first place with the Mariners in the AL West. 

PICK: Astros ML

Red Sox vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Like the Astros, the Red Sox are still alive and fighting for the postseason. 

Nick Pivetta starts tonight for the Sox, and his road splits are impressive.  When away this year, Pivetta has an ERA of just 2.97 as compared to 5.50 when at home. 

Boston has been hitting well lately, too. Since June 1, the Red Sox have the second-best batting average in MLB (.275). They also have 131 extra-base hits and have scored 5.27 runs per game (5th) in that span. The Dodgers have also been hitting well but fall behind Boston in each of those categories.

As far as home/road splits- the Red Sox have been better on the road since June 1 (.264 BA and 5.44 runs per game) than the Dodgers have been at home (.246 BA and 4.50 runs per game).

Gavins Stone has been good for the Dodgers this season, but in his two starts just before the All-Star Break, he allowed eight earned runs across just seven ⅔ innings pitched.

That’s enough to have me taking a shot on plus money for the upset tonight. 

PICK: Red Sox ML

Padres vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

One final dog for tonight.  

According to Fangraphs, the Padres still have a 40% chance to make the postseason, and we know AJ Preller won’t be timid at the trade deadline.   Expect San Diego to come back from the break with a mission. 

Since June 1, the Padres have scored the tenth-most runs per game, while the Guardians have scored the 19th. In that time span, they hit .265, compared to Cleveland’s .249. 

Tanner Bibee has been very good this season, but he has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts. His ERA is higher when he pitches at home: 4.69, as opposed to 3.00 when away.  

Padres pitcher Matt Waldron has also has better road splits: 3.13 when away as opposed to 4.33 when at home.   That’s another positive for San Diego. 

Neither team is prone to strikeout. 

I see this game as closer to a coin flip than the market suggests, so I’ll grab the +114 for the Friars. 

PICK: Padres ML

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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