Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Michael King's Stellar Season Continues)

Reed Wallach | Jul 27, 2024

Jul 21, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King (34) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday's Major League Baseball slate pits plenty of high level matchups, including a pair of pitchers that are tossing it at a career best mark.

Michael King of the Padres and Seth Lugo of the Royals have been on a tear all season, and can really cement themselves as Cy Young contenders with strong starts against the Orioles and Cubs, respectively, on Saturday.

King is an underdog while Lugo is a small home favorite as betting markets still struggle to buy into the two righties success this season.

Here's why I'm backing them on Saturday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best MLB Bets for Saturday, July 27th

• Padres (+100) vs. Orioles
• Reds (+110) vs. Rays
• Royals (-120) vs. Cubs

Padres vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Michael King has pitched like a fringe Cy Young candidate all season, posting a 3.28 based around a strong set of offspeed pitches that has yielded a ton of soft contact. 

King has an average exit velocity of 85%, which ranks in the 98th percentile as he continues to pitch around batters at an elite clip, getting batters to chase at a top 70 percentile.

I’ll trust him as a slight underdog against an Orioles team in shaky form since the All-Star break, just 3-4 since the break.

PICK: Padres (+100)

Reds vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

The Reds won the opening game of this weekend set in extra innings, and the first for the Rays in the post-Randy Arozarena era. I’ll go back to Cincinnati on Saturday with another left hander on the mound in Andrew Abbott. 

The Rays are bottom 10 in the big leagues in OPS against left handed pitching, so the short-handed lineup will continue to struggle on Saturday.

PICK: Reds (+110)

Royals vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Is Seth Lugo in the Cy Young race? The right hander has the best adjusted ERA in baseball while being as good as any pitcher in the big leagues at generating soft contact. He has an ERA of 2.38 while limiting his walks to just two batters per nine innings. 

He’ll face a limited Cubs lineup that is circling the drain on the season, losers of seven of the last 10 games. Chicago will also run into a buzzsaw that is the Royals at home, 36-20 at Kauffman Stadium. 

PICK: Royals (-120)

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