Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Target the Over for Brewers/Braves and Mets/Rockies)

Jennifer Piacenti | Aug 6, 2024

Aug 2, 2021; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) connects for a solo homerun in the 3rd inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The weather will be an issue around the country today, with quite a few games expecting rain and winds blowing in.    

Let’s look at two games where the weather should be friendly to hitters and have fun rooting for the overs! 

All odds according to DraftKings. 

Best MLB Bets for Tuesday, August 6th

• Brewers vs. Braves OVER 8.5
• Brewers (+110) vs. Braves
• Mets vs. Rockies OVER 11.5

Brewers at Braves OVER 8.5 (-120)

Brewers (+110) vs. Braves

The weather will be friendly to hitters tonight at Truist Park, with warm and light winds blowing out to the right field.   

Even though both of these teams have been in an offensive slump since the All-Star Break, let’s bet they break out of the rut tonight.

Colin Rea will start for the visiting Brewers.  Rea has been solid this season with a 3.59 ERA for the Brewers, but his xERA of 4.92, 1.25 home runs per nine,  and exit velocity in the bottom 10% of the league suggest there is room for regression.  

Bryce Elder starts at home for Atlanta. He has a home ERA of 6.30 this season and 5.59 since the All-Star Break, and his 13% HR/FB ratio suggests the Brewers could hit some long balls. The Brewers have been the better-hitting team since the All-Star Break, averaging 4.14 runs per game compared to the Braves' 3.75. 

Though the Braves are one of the better home teams in the league, I like the plus-money option for Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers are 31-28 on the road in 2024.

Mets at Rockies OVER 11.5 (-108)

The Mets have the sixth-best batting average (.261) and the third-best SLG (.444) vs. left-handed pitching this year, and tonight they will see lefty Kyle Freeland at Coors.  Freeland has an ERA of 5.64 this season, and even though he has been excellent at home, the weather won’t be doing him any favors tonight, with moderate winds blowing out to right center.  

New York will start Luis Severino, who has been steady most of the season but has an ERA of 5.14 since the All-Star Break and does not pitch as well on the road. 

Both teams have hit well since the break, with the Rockies averaging seven runs per game at home and the Mets averaging 4.5 when away.   Give the Mets a bit of a bump for hitting at Coors, and this game should get to 12. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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