Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Picks Today (Marcell Ozuna is Best Bet to Go Deep on Saturday)

Reed Wallach | Aug 17, 2024

Aug 12, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Atlanta Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (20) hits a single during the eighth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports / Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

As the postseason chase heats up, I’m eyeing a few key batters to play a role on Saturday. 

Marcell Ozuna has been one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball all season, and I expect him to show up in a favorable matchup against the Angels as the Braves look to keep pace in the NL Wild Card hunt. 

Ozuna is the headliner, but I have two other sluggers in position to go deep on Saturday, keep reading to find out who!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Saturday, August 17th

• Jurickson Profar (+500)
• Brent Rooker (+420)
• Marcell Ozuna (+300)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Jurickson Profar

Profar has power to all parts of the ballpark and 19 home runs to his name. At Coors Field, where the ball flies, he can really pounce on a vulnerable Rockies pitching staff, including lefty Kyle Freeland. 

Profar has hit both lefties and righties well, but even stronger against southpaws with a .532 slugging percentage. 

Since the All-Star break, his slugging is slightly up, and I like him to pounce on the friendly conditions.

Brent Rooker

Rooker has emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball, full stop. 

He is hitting .293 with a .583 slugging percentage with 29 home runs to his name. He smashes the ball, ranking 94th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 98th percentile in xSLG. Rooker should have little issue handling Hayden Birdsong, the Giants' struggling prospect, and a middling bullpen. 

Birdsong ranks in the bottom 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, which means he is getting demolished by contact that can lead to more extra base hits. He has an ERA of 7.27 since the All-Star break, a testament to his poor form. 

The wind should be blowing out at 11 miles per hour at Oakland-Alameda County on Saturday night, a great setup for Rooker to touch ‘em all. 

Marcell Ozuna

Ozuna has the shortest price to go deep in the Braves-Angels game, which checks out for the vaunted Braves slugger, who is hitting .302 with a .580 slugging percentage to go with his 35 home runs. 

The designated hitters has been a threat to go yard in every game, but there are plenty of favorable outcomes for him against the Angels on Saturday night that justifies a bet on a 3-1 payout. 

Ozuna will face Griffin Canning, who fails to get much movement on his pitches (fourth percentile in run value) and is 26th percentile in hard-hit percentage while eighth percentile in average exit velocity. He has allowed 22 home runs in 24 starts this season, and has allowed four in five starts since the All-Star break, which features an ERA that has ballooned to 6.15. 

In the heart of the Braves batting order, I think it’s Ozuna who tees off on a struggling Canning. 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.