Fantasy Baseball: Top 15 Outfielders

SI Staff | Mar 15, 2010

Fantasy Baseball: Top 15 Outfielders /

Fantasy Baseball: Top 15 Outfielders

Ryan Braun

Fantasy owners holding the No. 4 or 5 slot in deeper mixed-league drafts cannot afford to pass on Braun. It's not like he's a notch above first basemen Miggy Cabrera, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira, per se. But given the relative dearth of superstar outfielders this season -- with leagues that start five of 'em -- Braun is a must-have for owners who believe a top-notch outfield is the key to a fantasy championship. Projections: 34 HRs, 113 RBIs, 109 runs, 23 steals, .325 average.

Matt Kemp

In case you hadn't heard, Kemp is the first Dodger in franchise history to amass 25 HRs, 25 steals and 100 RBIs (which is why he earned a No. 6 ranking in last year's countdown). He's also the only outfielder who's a reasonable lock for 20 HRs/100 RBIs/30 steals/100 runs. Put it all together and he's the perfect choice late in Round 1. Projections: 23 HRs, 102 RBIs, 104 runs, 37 steals, .297 average.

Matt Holliday

If Holliday had signed with the Mets in the offseason -- instead of the Cardinals -- perhaps his ranking wouldn't be so high. (How's that for tenuous?) The reason: He would have foolishly abandoned the best lineup protection that money can buy -- namely Albert Pujols. Holliday is a fantasy moose with St. Louis, as long as Pujols stays healthy. Projections: 27 HRs, 112 RBIs, 96 runs, 11 steals, .317 average.

Carl Crawford

Crawford likely won't eclipse 15 HRs again while playing for the Rays (he's a free agent at season's end), and he might never rack up 80-plus RBIs at any other point in his career. However, the positives far outweigh the negatives with Crawford, provided the hamstrings remain intact and Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon never turns off the green light on the basepaths. Projections: 13 HRs, 62 RBIs, 108 runs, 53 steals, .297 average.

Grady Sizemore

Pick up any preseason magazine right now, and you'll find Sizemore mired somewhere between 12th and 18th in the outfielder rankings. Simply put, either the fantasy community as a whole has lost total confidence in Sizemore's old capacity for 30/30 -- or I have seriously misjudged the quality and quantity of the 2010 outfield class. Here's hoping it's the former. Projections: 27 HRs, 94 RBIs, 109 runs, 32 steals, .278 average.

Jacoby Ellsbury

This is probably my shakiest pick of the top 10. Yes, Ellsbury is a lock for 50 steals/95 runs/.295 average with the Red Sox; but if he pulls a hammy or experiences a prolonged slump during the season, he's nothing more than a slightly older version of Dexter Fowler. It goes without saying: Don't reach for Ellsbury in Rounds 1 or 2. Projections: 9 HRs, 57 RBIs, 103 runs, 58 steals, .298 average.

Jayson Werth

In my warped world, the free-agent-to-be Werth will either have a top-5 season ... or suffer a David Wright-esque mini-meltdown in 2010 -- trying too hard to make things happen. But don't be fooled by the ominous opening ... Werth is an even-money shot to justify the No. 7 ranking. In fact, he might be the National League's closest doppelganger to Matt Kemp this season. Projections: 31 HRs, 96 RBIs, 102 runs, 26 steals, .289 average.

Justin Upton

Upton would probably be a top-3 pick in leagues where slugging percentage and OPS were favored over batting average; but good luck finding such a league in mainstream fantasyland. Bottom line: Upton's .300 average in 2009 feels like an aberration; but lucky for us, his 30/30 potential at age 23 is all too real. Projections: 24 HRs, 90 RBIs, 87 runs, 17 steals, .278 average.

Nelson Cruz

In a perfect world, the 30-year-old Cruz would have a longer track record of fantasy dominance; but right now, we can only daydream incrementally better numbers from 2009 -- his first full season in the majors. Projections: 31 HRs, 102 RBIs, 92 runs, 14 steals, .268 average.

Carlos Lee

This will likely be Lee's last season as a top-10 outfielder; but that doesn't mean he shouldn't go out with a bang -- or at least be the wonderfully consistent stud of the last five years (steals excluded). Projections: 28 HRs, 101 RBIs, 73 runs, 4 steals, .306 average.

Ichiro Suzuki

I'd feel a lot better about Ichiro's fantasy prospects if he were a lock for 100 runs -- especially with Chone Figgins wreaking havoc in the lineup. But then again, I'm not in the business of disrespecting .352 hitters. Projections: 9 HRs, 51 RBIs, 94 runs, 24 steals, .343 average.

Bobby Abreu

Don't let the No. 12 ranking be a Debbie Downer here: Abreu would make an excellent mixed-league pick sometime in Round 2. And don't let the 'old' age fool ya, either: Abreu, at 36 years young, has shown very few signs of slowing down. Consider this the line of demarcation for outfielders. Projections: 17 HRs, 102 RBIs, 101 runs, 26 steals, .287 average.

Adam Jones

If anyone outside the top-10 is primed for top-5 billing this time next year, it's the 25-year-old Jones -- a relative lock for 20/25 if he stays healthy for 150 games. Of course, staying on the field is easier said than done for Jones. This is the beauty of fantasy countdowns, though, where optimism reigns for on-the-cusp superstars. Projections: 23 HRs, 84 RBIs, 93 runs, 27 steals, .275 average.

Jason Bay

For a few dollars more ... Bay abandoned the comfy confines of Fenway Park for cavernous Citi Field. For a few dollars more ... Bay is not a top-5 outfielder in fantasyland. For a few dollars more ... Bay is no longer a lock for 25 homers or 100 runs. For a few dollars more ... oh wait, you get the idea. Projections: 24 HRs, 87 RBIs, 85 runs, 9 steals, .272 average.

Shane Victorino

In mixed leagues, Victorino has solid value. In NL-only leagues or leagues where owners place a major emphasis on speed, Victorino will not disappoint -- even though he's already inked a lucrative three-year extension. Projections: 11 HRs, 63 RBIs, 108 runs, 33 steals, .286 average.

Published Mar 15, 2010

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